Cases / Tree planting · Uzbekistan · 2018–2026
Afforestation of the dried Aral Sea bed in Uzbekistan
Nature's voice · report
My dried bed added about 7% more dust over Central Asia in the 2000s–2010s than in the 1980s–1990s, according to a 2022 study summarised by Eos.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
- Dust from my bed hit Tashkent and Ashgabat hardest in spring 2015 to spring 2016, with dust above WHO recommendations on 2–3 days a year. Eos (AGU)
- Storms over my bed carry from 15 to 75 million tons of sand, dust and salt a year, according to the World Bank figure reported by Kun.uz; the Aralkum area is about 60,000 km². UNCCD Library
- Saplings set on my bed survived at 50–70% in years with more rain and at about 30% in low-rainfall years, according to a Forest Research Institute scientist. Mongabay
- Karakalpakstan received about 10 mm of rain in the five years since 2020, according to Mongabay citing a forestry specialist. Mongabay
- In September 2026 the president listed species unsuited to my climate and soil, planting where there is no water, and weak pest and disease control among the problems. Dunyo.info / UzA
Accounts of the harm differ
How much of the reported planting survives
- Government and regulators Government of Uzbekistan: About 2 million ha of protective plantations set up in 2018–2025; the release states no survival rate. Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
- Researchers Turaxon Ziyotov, Forest Research Institute: Survival is 50–70% in years with more rainfall and about 30% in low-rainfall years. Mongabay
- Government and regulators President of Uzbekistan (21 September 2026): Problems with maintaining and protecting forests on the dried seabed were listed; results are to be judged by survival after one, three and five years. Dunyo.info / UzA
The Government of Uzbekistan states that protective plantings were set up on about 2 million hectares of the dried Aral Sea bed in 2018–2025 to hold down sand, salt and dust. The government releases state no budget and no survival rate; a forestry scientist put sapling survival at 50–70% in wetter years and about 30% in low-rainfall years.
2 million haArea the government reports planted on the dried seabed, 2018–2025
Government of Uzbekistan, 6 March 2026. The release states no budget and no survival rate.
Government of Uzbekistan, 6 March 2026. The release states no budget and no survival rate.
Status As of September 2026: the government reports about 2 million ha planted in 2018–2025; the president has ordered results to be judged by survival after one, three and five years; the government releases state no survival rate and no total budget.
What?
The Government of Uzbekistan states that protective plantations of desert plants were set up on about 2 million hectares of the dried Aral Sea bed in 2018–2025; a forestry scientist put sapling survival at 50–70% in wetter years and about 30% in low-rainfall years. Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
Where?
Dried seabed of the Aral Sea (Aralkum), Karakalpakstan, mainly Muynak district; also the wider Aral region (Bukhara, Navoi, Khorezm). Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
When?
2018–2026; the government states the programme ran 2018–2025. Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
Who?
Gained
- Residents, workers and machine operators — More than 2,000 took part in the planting, per the government release Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
- Eight UN organisations — US$ 14,132,726 net funded from the UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region to 31 December 2023 UNDP MPTF Office
Lost
- State budget — 100 billion soums planned for plantings in 2019 and 25 billion soums for the green cover in 2023 Podrobno.uz
Harmed
- Dried Aral Sea bed and Central Asia — About 7% more dust over Central Asia in the 2000s–2010s than in the 1980s–1990s Eos (AGU)
- Karakalpakstan — Yearly economic damage of more than $44 million (Kun.uz on the World Bank/ICARDA study) UNCCD Library
Why?
A ministry official said planting artificial forests is essential to keep wind from blowing sand and salt off the exposed seabed. Yuz.uz / UzA
How?
Seeds sown and seedlings planted using machines, aircraft and hang gliders, with saxaul nurseries of at least 100 ha set up each year. Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
6 of 6 questions answered from the record
What happened
The record, in order.
On 6 March 2026 the Government of Uzbekistan stated that "protective forest plantations" ("green cover") had been set up on about 2 million hectares of the dried bed of the Aral Sea in 2018–2025, on the president's direct initiative. The release also stated that 7,800 tons of desert plant seeds had been collected, that up to 1,000 machines, 4 aircraft and 2 motorised hang gliders were used each year, that more than 2,000 residents, workers and machine operators took part, and that saxaul nurseries of at least 100 ha were set up each year. It gave no budget and no survival rate.
Earlier official figures were smaller and by year. In February 2023 the head of the Biodiversity Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources gave 107,000 ha for 2022 and a target of 100,000 ha for 2023, and said 25,000 ha of new artificial forest were created each year. In May 2024 Mongabay reported about 1.7 million ha planted over five years and 150,000–200,000 ha planned for 2024. In May 2025 the government reported 126.2 thousand ha of green cover created on the dried seabed and in the region (71.9 thousand ha in Karakalpakstan, 23.3 thousand in Bukhara, 16 thousand in Navoi, 15 thousand in Khorezm), with 115 thousand ha more planned; in December 2025 it reported 145.2 thousand ha in the Aral Sea region in 2025, of which 90.5 thousand ha in Muynak district.
On money, Podrobno.uz reported in February 2019 that a government resolution would allocate 100 billion soums in stages during 2019 for forest plantations on 500,000 ha of the dried seabed. A Cabinet of Ministers order set 25 billion soums for the green cover in 2023, according to ministry official A. Sodikov. In October 2024 the president referred to a "$50 million grant for rehabilitating degraded deserts in 2025"; the article did not name the donor. The 21 May 2025, 25 December 2025 and 6 March 2026 government releases state no total budget.
On survival, Turaxon Ziyotov of the Forest Research Institute in Tashkent told Mongabay in May 2024 that survival was 50–70% in years with more rainfall and about 30% in low-rainfall years. Mongabay, citing forestry specialist Dildora Aralova, reported that Karakalpakstan received about 10 mm of rain in the five years since 2020. At a presidential meeting on 21 September 2026 the problems listed were species unsuited to local climate and soil, planting where there is no water, weak pest and disease control, and "problems maintaining forests on the dried-up Aral Sea bed and protecting them"; the president ordered that results be judged by survival after one, three and five years. No figures were given.
A donor report for the World Bank, held in the CGIAR/ICARDA repository (31 August 2021), modelled wind erosion and the economic value of soil retention under several restoration scenarios, to help the government allocate limited resources. Kun.uz, reporting on the study in February 2022, gave yearly economic damage in Karakalpakstan of "more than $44 million (about 2% of the region's GDP)" and a possible yearly gain from restoration of "about $39 million per year (1.9% of Karakalpakstan's GDP)". Separately, a UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region in Uzbekistan (fund code ARL00) had received US$ 16,248,943 in deposits from seven contributors by 31 December 2023, with US$ 12,440,872 reported as expenditure.
- 2018Large-scale state programme starts (government: 2018–2025)
- 2019Government resolution reported: 100 bn soums for 2019 plantings on 500,000 ha (16 Feb)
- 2021World Bank/ICARDA report on the value of restoration (31 Aug)
- 2022107,000 ha planted, per a ministry official (reported Feb 2023)
- 202325 bn soums for the green cover (Cabinet order); UN trust fund deposits reach US$ 16,248,943 (31 Dec)
- 2024Mongabay reports about 1.7 million ha over five years (29 May); president refers to a US$ 50 million desert grant for 2025 (Oct)
- 2025Government reports 126.2 thousand ha (May) and 145.2 thousand ha (Dec)
- 2026Government states 2 million ha planted in 2018–2025 (6 Mar); presidential meeting orders survival checks at one, three and five years (21 Sep)
What was said
Claims, in the words of those who made them.
“Unfortunately, the Aral Sea can no longer be restored to its original state.”
“Given this, planting artificial forests is essential to keep wind from blowing sand and salt off the exposed seabed.”
“contributes to improving the environmental situation in our country”
“Based on the amount of rain received in a year, the survival of saplings is determined.”
“Proper consultation and involvement of local communities are essential to address their needs and concerns”
“Saxaul is planted on cold days and the work is quite difficult in the winter”
“The alternatives that derive from nature are somewhat more easily accessible and close to local people”
“problems maintaining forests on the dried-up Aral Sea bed and protecting them”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
How much of the reported planting survives
Government and regulators
Government of Uzbekistan
About 2 million ha of protective plantations set up in 2018–2025; the release states no survival rate.
Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)Researchers
Turaxon Ziyotov, Forest Research Institute
Survival is 50–70% in years with more rainfall and about 30% in low-rainfall years.
MongabayGovernment and regulators
President of Uzbekistan (21 September 2026)
Problems with maintaining and protecting forests on the dried seabed were listed; results are to be judged by survival after one, three and five years.
Dunyo.info / UzAArea planted per year and in total
Government and regulators
Ministry of Natural Resources (February 2023)
107,000 ha in 2022; target of 100,000 ha for 2023; 25,000 ha of new artificial forest each year.
Yuz.uz / UzAGovernment and regulators
Government of Uzbekistan (May 2025)
126.2 thousand ha of green cover created on the dried seabed and in the region.
Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)Government and regulators
Government of Uzbekistan (December 2025)
145.2 thousand ha in the Aral Sea region in 2025.
Government of Uzbekistan (Ecology)Press and investigations
Mongabay (May 2024)
About 1.7 million ha planted over five years; 150,000–200,000 ha planned for 2024.
MongabayGovernment and regulators
Government of Uzbekistan (March 2026)
About 2 million ha planted in 2018–2025.
Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)How it looked
What was shown, beside what was recorded.
Shown
- Protective forest plantations ("green cover") on about 2 million ha of the dried seabed, 2018–2025Government of Uzbekistan, 6 March 2026 · Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
- Planting artificial forests is essential to keep wind from blowing sand and salt off the exposed seabedA. Sodikov, Ministry of Natural Resources, February 2023 · Yuz.uz / UzA
Recorded
- The dried bed added about 7% more dust over Central Asia in the 2000s–2010s than in the 1980s–1990s (Banks et al., 2022, as summarised by Eos).
- Survival of planted saplings: 50–70% in years with more rainfall and about 30% in low-rainfall years (Forest Research Institute scientist, via Mongabay, 29 May 2024).
- The president ordered results to be judged by survival after one, three and five years (21 September 2026).
- Kun.uz, reporting on the World Bank/ICARDA study, gave yearly economic damage in Karakalpakstan of more than $44 million and a cost of inaction over 20 years of more than $840 million.
- UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region in Uzbekistan: US$ 16,248,943 deposited by seven contributors to 31 December 2023; US$ 12,440,872 reported as expenditure.
Who gained
Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.
Reached nature or the ground
Not published
State allocation for forest plantations on the dried seabed, 2019 (to be allocated in stages)100bn
Window: 2019
100 billion soums, under a government resolution reported by Podrobno.uz.
Allocation for the green cover, 202325bn
Window: 2023
25 billion soums, under a Cabinet of Ministers order, per ministry official A. Sodikov.
Grant for rehabilitating degraded deserts, 2025—
Window: 2025
US$ 50 million, referred to by the president in October 2024; donor not named in the article.
UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region: deposits to 31 December 2023—
Window: to 2023
US$ 16,248,943 deposited; US$ 14,132,726 net funded to eight UN organisations; US$ 12,440,872 reported as expenditure.
Gained elsewhere
Not totalled
Currency: UZS · Window: Mixed — see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.
Responses on record
- uzbekistan-gov (2026-03-06): The planting work contributes to improving the environmental situation in the country (A. Abduhakimov). · Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency)
- uzbekistan-natural-resources-ministry (2023-02-01): The Aral Sea can no longer be restored to its original state, so planting artificial forests is essential to keep wind from blowing sand and salt off the exposed seabed (A. Sodikov). · Yuz.uz / UzA
In court and with insurers
Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.
Lawsuits and rulings
No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.
Insurers
No insurer decision on record.
What nature saw
Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
Area reported planted
2 million ha
Government, 2018–2025; no survival rate stated
Sapling survival
30–70%
About 30% in low-rainfall years, 50–70% in wetter years (Forest Research Institute scientist, via Mongabay)
Extra dust over Central Asia
≈ 7%
2000s–2010s against 1980s–1990s (Banks et al., via Eos)
Budget 2018–2025
Not disclosed
Allocations of 100 bn soums (2019) and 25 bn soums (2023) are reported
What we don't know
Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Nature
- Disputed How much of the reported planting survives
Money
- None on record Grant for rehabilitating degraded deserts, 2025 — US$ 50 million, referred to by the president in October 2024; donor not named in the article.
- None on record UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region: deposits to 31 December 2023 — US$ 16,248,943 deposited; US$ 14,132,726 net funded to eight UN organisations; US$ 12,440,872 reported as expenditure.
Court
- None on record No court case on record.
Accounts
- Disputed Area planted per year and in total
Record
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: the total budget for 2018–2025. The government releases of 21 May 2025, 25 December 2025 and 6 March 2026 state no budget and no survival rate.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: the donor of the US$ 50 million grant for rehabilitating degraded deserts in 2025 that the president referred to in October 2024.
- Unclear Unclear: how the yearly figures (107,000 ha in 2022; 126.2 thousand ha in spring 2025; 145.2 thousand ha in 2025) relate to the cumulative totals of about 1.7 million ha by 2024 and 2 million ha by 2025; no published figure gives a year-by-year table that adds up to them.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: costs, budgets and funders in the Mongabay report of 29 May 2024, which also has no satellite check of the plantings.
- None on record None on record: a court or prosecutor proceeding about the seabed plantings.
- None on record None on record: an Accounts Chamber audit dealing specifically with the seabed plantings; the 2026 Yashil Makon audit sampled Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya.
Did the harm stop?
The dried bed remains. A ministry official said in February 2023 that the Aral Sea can no longer be restored to its original state; plantings continued in 2025 and 2026.
Who paid?
The state budget funded the plantings (100 bn soums in 2019, 25 bn soums in 2023; total not disclosed). A UN trust fund for the Aral Sea region had received US$ 16,248,943 in deposits by 31 December 2023.
Sources
Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies
Government and regulators
- Planting of desert plants has begun on the dried seabed of the Aral SeaGovernment of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency) · 2026-03-06
- Forest Area in Uzbekistan Reaches 4.7 Million HectaresGovernment of Uzbekistan (Ecology) · 2025-12-25
- The goal is to bring the level of greenery in the republic to 30 percent by 2030Government of Uzbekistan (Forestry Agency) · 2025-05-21
Press and investigations
- Uzbekistan to allocate 100 bn soums for forest plantations on the dried Aral seabed (in Russian)Podrobno.uz · 2019-02-16
- 25 bn soums needed for green cover on the dried Aral seabed (in Russian)Yuz.uz / UzA · 2023-02-01
- Uzbekistan plants a forest where a sea once layMongabay · 2024-05-29 · Archived copy
- Tree care and survival rates to become priorities under the "Yashil Makon" projectDunyo.info / UzA · 2026-09-21
- Yashil Makon (presidential meeting)Gazeta.uz · 2024-10-24
Researchers
International bodies
- The Value of Landscape Restoration in Uzbekistan to Reduce Sand and Dust Storms from the Aral SeabedCGIAR/ICARDA repository (World Bank donor report) · 2021-08-31
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- World Bank-backed Colombo flood work turned Beddagana wetland into a park Sri Lanka · 2010–2018
- World Bank (International organisation) — here: Donor of the restoration-value study; there: Funder whose support backed the programme
- WWF-funded ranger units accused of torture and killings in Asia and Africa Multiple countries · 2006–2023
- UN Development Programme (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the trust fund's financial report (UNDP MPTF Office); there: Investigation into the Messok Dja park programme (leaked draft)
- Zagros oak forests: the UNDP/GEF Central Zagros project, its evaluation and the fires of 2024–2026 Iran · 2005–2026
- UN Development Programme (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the trust fund's financial report (UNDP MPTF Office); there: Implementing agency of the Central Zagros project