Socio Bosque programme, Ecuador: payments for forest conservation since 2008
- Researchers Cuenca, Robalino, Arriagada and Echeverría (2018): A 1.5% reduction on enrolled forest, 3.4% for individual contracts; conventional (unmatched) estimates of 5–7% overstate the effect. PLOS ONE, 13(9): e0203545
- Researchers Jones and colleagues (2016): A 0.4–0.5% reduction in average annual deforestation for 63 enrolled households in the Cuyabeno buffer zone, 2011–2013; the abstract reports up to a 70% reduction attributable to the programme and the results section reports 56–76%. Environmental Conservation, 44(1)
- Government and regulators Ministry of the Environment (2017): Net national annual deforestation fell from 77,748 hectares a year (2000–2008) to 47,497 hectares a year (to 2015). El Comercio
- International bodies UNDP (2018): Records criticism of the programme for focusing on isolated areas and not including some deforestation hotspots, and states that the risks were managed by improving monitoring. United Nations Development Programme
Since 2008 Ecuador's Ministry of the Environment has paid landowners and communities that agree to conserve native forest, páramo and other vegetation under 20-year agreements. Programme documents give about 1.4 to 1.7 million hectares enrolled against a goal of more than 3.6 million hectares; two peer-reviewed evaluations found reductions in deforestation of 1.5% and 0.4–0.5% a year, and the national comptroller's audit reported unexplained payments.
Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition figure reported by Agencia EFE; the programme's goal was more than 3.6 million hectares. Earlier Ministry-sourced figures: 1,434,061.95 hectares (2014) and almost 1.5 million hectares (2017).
Status As of December 2024: the Ministry reports over 1.7 million hectares under agreement and a Socio Bosque II extension; the outcome of the 2019 special examination is not on record.
- Landowners and communities in the programme — US$10,001,899.26 in incentive payments in 2014, US$6,337,665.93 of it to Indigenous peoples and other collectives; 173,233 individuals reached in 2014 United Nations Development Programme
- Donors and partners (KfW, REM, General Motors Ecuador) — Funded parts of the programme; amounts as reported by the Ministry El Comercio
- Members awaiting payments — Up to four committed payments not received by early 2017 El Comercio
- Forests outside the programme and under unfunded agreement years — Net national deforestation of 47,497 hectares a year to 2015; financing for 5 of 20 years in some Amazon agreements put 73,747.23 hectares at risk (Comptroller General) El Telégrafo
What happened
Ecuador's Socio Bosque programme was established by Ministerial Decree No. 169 of 14 November 2008. UNDP's 2018 Environmental and Social Assessment, prepared for a Green Climate Fund results-based payment proposal, describes it as a programme under which property holders, individually or as communities, enter agreements (convenios) with the Ministry of the Environment to place all or part of their land under conservation in exchange for twice-yearly incentive payments. Its stated aims were to conserve native forests, páramos and other native vegetation, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and to improve the living conditions of rural populations. UNDP records a goal of conserving more than 3,600,000 hectares. Academic papers give the payment rate as US$30 per hectare a year for the first 50 hectares and US$20 per hectare a year for the next 50 hectares, under 20-year contracts; El Comercio reported other rates by size of holding, from US$60 per hectare for a community with 1 to 50 hectares to US$0.50 per hectare for an individual holding more than 10,001 hectares.
The programme's size is given in several Ministry-sourced figures. For 2014 UNDP records 2,748 agreements (189 with communities), 1,434,061.95 hectares under conservation (1,261,121.44 of them on Indigenous and local community lands), incentives reaching 173,233 individuals and US$10,001,899.26 released in incentive payments, US$6,337,665.93 of it to Indigenous peoples and other collectives. El Comercio reported in 2017 that the programme had signed 2,763 agreements with 46,900 families and conserved almost 1.5 million hectares, and that the Ministry put net annual deforestation at 77,748 hectares a year in 2000–2008 and 47,497 hectares a year up to 2015. Agencia EFE reported in December 2024, citing the Ministry, 2,551 agreements since 2008, over 1.7 million hectares and about 180,000 beneficiaries, and the addition of more than 88,000 hectares in Sucumbíos under Socio Bosque II. UNDP states that most of the programme's resources came from the domestic public budget, with support from KfW and the Global Conservation Fund of Conservation International Ecuador and a partnership with General Motors. El Comercio reported that KfW contributed US$11.5 million through the Fondo Nacional Ambiental (FAN), that the German-backed REM programme had US$35 million for Socio Bosque, and that the Ministry's Annual Investment Plan allocation for 2010–2015 was US$44,837,498.45.
Two peer-reviewed studies measured deforestation on enrolled land. Cuenca, Robalino, Arriagada and Echeverría (PLOS ONE, 13 September 2018) used propensity-score matching on 30 by 30 metre cells for 2008–2014 and found that the programme reduced deforestation by 1.5% on forests receiving the direct payment: about 1% for collective contracts and 3.4% for individual contracts. They estimated avoided losses of 11,227 hectares (collective, 1,247,500 hectares protected) and 5,733 hectares (individual, 165,700 hectares protected) by 2014, and wrote that conventional estimates of 5–7% overstate the avoided deforestation. Jones and colleagues (Environmental Conservation, published online 22 August 2016) compared 63 enrolled smallholder households in the buffer zone of the Cuyabeno Faunal Production Reserve with similar non-enrolled households and found that the incentives reduced average annual deforestation by 0.4–0.5% between 2011 and 2013. Cuenca et al. measured forest cover only.
Payments and audits were also reported. El Comercio reported that payments had been delayed since 2015, that members had not received up to four committed payments, and that the environment minister attributed the delays to budget restrictions; the FAN was liquidated in April 2016. On 8 February 2019 the environment minister asked the Comptroller General to open a special examination of the programme's management since 2012 after an internal study found possible non-transparent actions in the use of funds; the outcome is not on record in the sources reviewed. On 11 January 2021 El Telégrafo reported findings published by the Comptroller General: US$998,356.37 transferred to the Shiwiar nationality in 2013–2018 for the protection of 110,000 hectares, of which the use of US$160,189.11 was unknown because no invoices or contracts were presented; 20-year agreements for other Amazon areas whose financing covered only the first five years, putting 73,747.23 hectares at risk; and, in a 2009 Otavalo agreement over 6,839.9 hectares, US$114,273.08 of earlier payments not recovered after the Ministry suspended disbursements.
- 2008Socio Bosque established by Ministerial Decree No. 169 (14 November)
- 2009Agreement over 6,839.9 hectares signed in Otavalo with an annual incentive of US$32,677.8 (Comptroller General finding reported 2021)
- 2013Transfers to the Shiwiar nationality begin; US$998,356.37 transferred by 2018 for 110,000 hectares
- 2014UNDP records 2,748 agreements, 1,434,061.95 hectares under conservation and US$10,001,899.26 in incentive payments
- 2015Payments to members begin to be delayed; the Ministry cites budget restrictions
- 2016Fondo Nacional Ambiental liquidated (April)
- 2018Cuenca et al. published (13 September); UNDP Environmental and Social Assessment dated 11 September
- 2019Environment minister asks the Comptroller General for a special examination of the programme since 2012 (8 February)
- 2021El Telégrafo reports the Comptroller General's findings on Shiwiar transfers, unfunded agreement years and unrecovered payments (11 January)
- 2024Ministry reports 2,551 agreements, over 1.7 million hectares and an added 88,000 hectares in Sucumbíos (EFE, 10 December)
What was said
“Con esto buscamos transparentar la gestión del Programa Socio Bosque”
“Hay zonas que se están pagando pero donde no existe verificación”
“restricciones presupuestarias”
“Con el presupuesto aprobado para el 2017, el proyecto atenderá los pagos correspondientes a los años 2015 y 2016”
“the SBP reduced deforestation by 1.5% in those forests that received the SBP's direct payment”
“Conventional estimates of the impact of the SBP tend to overestimate avoided deforestation”
“reduced average annual deforestation by 0.4–0.5% between 2011 and 2013”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
A 1.5% reduction on enrolled forest, 3.4% for individual contracts; conventional (unmatched) estimates of 5–7% overstate the effect.
PLOS ONE, 13(9): e0203545A 0.4–0.5% reduction in average annual deforestation for 63 enrolled households in the Cuyabeno buffer zone, 2011–2013; the abstract reports up to a 70% reduction attributable to the programme and the results section reports 56–76%.
Environmental Conservation, 44(1)Net national annual deforestation fell from 77,748 hectares a year (2000–2008) to 47,497 hectares a year (to 2015).
El Comercio81 million invested from 2008 to 2019; the article does not state the currency.
Ely ExMore than US$55 million invested in contracts at the time of writing.
Environmental Conservation, 44(1)Annual Investment Plan allocation of US$44,837,498.45 for 2010–2015.
El ComercioUS$10.3 million in investment since 2008, as reported by Agencia EFE.
La Estrella de PanamáPayment delays since 2015 were due to budget restrictions.
El ComercioMembers had not received up to four committed payments.
El ComercioParticipants reported delayed payments, which the Ministry attributed to falling global oil prices.
Environmental Conservation, 44(1)Records criticism of the programme for focusing on isolated areas and not including some deforestation hotspots, and states that the risks were managed by improving monitoring.
United Nations Development ProgrammeHow it looked
Shown
- The programme described as having a good level of alignment with UNDP's social and environmental standards, "without significant shortcomings", and as a critical contributor to Ecuador's registered emission reductions.UNDP, Environmental and Social Assessment of Ecuador's Socio Bosque Programme (the assessment supports a request for a results-based payment) · United Nations Development Programme
- The programme's aim stated as to "garantizar la prosperidad económica y social en balance con la preservación ambiental e hídrica".Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition, as reported by Agencia EFE · La Estrella de Panamá
- Net annual deforestation reported as falling from 77,748 hectares a year (2000–2008) to 47,497 hectares a year (to 2015).Ministry of the Environment, as reported by El Comercio · El Comercio
Recorded
- Cuenca et al. (2018): deforestation reduced by 1.5% on forests receiving the payment (about 1% collective, 3.4% individual contracts), against conventional estimates of 5–7%.
- Jones et al. (2016/2017): average annual deforestation reduced by 0.4–0.5% for 63 enrolled households between 2011 and 2013.
- Comptroller General findings reported 11 January 2021: use of US$160,189.11 of Shiwiar transfers unknown; financing for 5 of 20 years in some Amazon agreements; US$114,273.08 not recovered in the 2009 Otavalo agreement; US$10,302.75 paid for 1,144.77 hectares outside the protection zone.
- Payments to members were delayed from 2015, with up to four payments missed by the time of the 2017 interviews.
- No source reviewed reports the result of the special examination the minister requested in February 2019.
In nature's name
Promised
- “garantizar la prosperidad económica y social en balance con la preservación ambiental e hídrica” — Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition, on the programme's goal, as reported by Agencia EFE (10 December 2024) La Estrella de Panamá
- “Conserve more than 3,600,000 hectares of native forests, páramos and native vegetation while reducing poverty and maintaining environmental services” — UNDP, describing the programme's aim (11 September 2018) United Nations Development Programme
Money moved in nature's name
| What | Kind | Amount | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Investment Plan allocation to Socio Bosque, 2010–2015 Ministry of the Environment, Ecuador El Comercio | Budget | $45m | 2010–2015 |
| Incentive payments released to partners Ministry of the Environment, Ecuador United Nations Development Programme | Paid out | $10m | 2014 |
| Invested in contracts, per Jones et al. Socio Bosque Environmental Conservation, 44(1) | Spent | $55m | to about 2016 |
| KfW contribution through the Fondo Nacional Ambiental KfW El Comercio | Paid out | $12m | to 2017 |
| REM funds stated by the minister as available for Socio Bosque German Government (REM programme) El Comercio | Pledged | $35m | 2017 |
| Transferred to the Shiwiar nationality for 110,000 hectares Ministry of the Environment, Ecuador El Telégrafo | Paid out | $1m | 2013–2018 |
| Payment for the Sucumbíos extension from public funds and REM resources (Germany and Norway) Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition La Estrella de Panamá | Paid out | $0.15m | 2024 |
What was measured
Two peer-reviewed studies by researchers outside the programme (Cuenca et al. 2018; Jones et al. 2016) found reductions in deforestation on enrolled land of 1.5% (2008–2014) and 0.4–0.5% a year (2011–2013); the first found conventional estimates of 5–7% overstated the effect. Both measured forest cover only. The Ministry's national deforestation figures and the UNDP assessment, prepared for a results-based payment request, are the programme side's own accounts.
Operation Ongoing · Socio Bosque II extension reported in December 2024. La Estrella de Panamá
Findings on record
- Peer-reviewed study Cuenca, Robalino, Arriagada and Echeverría, PLOS ONE (2018-09-13) · Are government incentives effective for avoided deforestation in the tropical Andean forest?: “the SBP reduced deforestation by 1.5% in those forests that received the SBP's direct payment” PLOS ONE, 13(9): e0203545
- Peer-reviewed study Jones, Holland, Naughton-Treves, Morales, Suarez and Keenan, Environmental Conservation (2016-08-22) · Forest conservation incentives and deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon: “reduced average annual deforestation by 0.4–0.5% between 2011 and 2013” Environmental Conservation, 44(1)
- Official audit Contraloría General del Estado, Ecuador (findings reported by El Telégrafo) (2021-01-11) · Audit findings on Socio Bosque transfers to the Shiwiar nationality and other agreements: “facturas o contratos que demuestren su inversión en beneficio de la comunidad” original in Spanish El Telégrafo
- Own admission Minister of the Environment, Ecuador (2019-02-08) · Request to the Comptroller General for a special examination of Socio Bosque since 2012: “Hay zonas que se están pagando pero donde no existe verificación” original in Spanish Ely Ex
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- Ministry of the Environment, Ecuador (2017; 8 February 2019): Attributed payment delays to budget restrictions and said the 2017 budget would cover the payments due for 2015 and 2016; in 2019 asked the Comptroller General to examine the programme after an internal study found possible non-transparent actions. · El Comercio
- Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition, Ecuador (December 2024): Reported 2,551 agreements, over 1.7 million hectares and about 180,000 beneficiaries since 2008, and added more than 88,000 hectares in Sucumbíos. · La Estrella de Panamá
- UNDP (September 2018): Found the programme well aligned with its social and environmental standards in 2014, with areas for improvement. · United Nations Development Programme
- Shiwiar nationality: No statement is recorded in the article reporting the Comptroller General's findings. · El Telégrafo
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Nature
- Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
- Disputed How much deforestation Socio Bosque avoided
- Disputed Whether the programme reached deforestation hotspots
Record
- None on record None on record: the outcome of the special examination of Socio Bosque since 2012 requested by the environment minister in February 2019.
- None on record None on record: a response from the Ministry of the Environment or the Shiwiar nationality to the Comptroller General's findings in the article reviewed.
- None on record None on record: an evaluation covering deforestation on enrolled land after 2014, or an assessment of leakage to land outside the programme.
- Not measured Not measured: effects on incomes and on ecological quality beyond forest cover; Cuenca et al. measured forest cover only.
- Disputed Conflicting: the total invested. The minister put investment at 81 million from 2008 to 2019 (currency not stated in the article); Jones et al. wrote of more than US$55 million in contracts; the Ministry's Annual Investment Plan allocation for 2010–2015 was US$44,837,498.45; Agencia EFE reported US$10.3 million in investment since 2008 for the same agreements. The sources reviewed do not reconcile these figures.
- Disputed Conflicting: the programme's area. Sources give 1,434,061.95 hectares (2014), almost 1.5 million hectares (2017) and over 1.7 million hectares (2024), on different dates and bases; the agreement count is 2,748 (2014), 2,763 (2017) and 2,551 (2024).
- Unclear Unclear: the period of the Cuenca et al. estimate. The abstract and methods give 2008–2014; tables refer to 2000–2014.
Did the harm stop?
The Ministry's own figure for net annual deforestation was 47,497 hectares a year up to 2015, down from 77,748 hectares a year in 2000–2008; deforestation continued at that level (El Comercio, 2017).
Who paid?
The domestic public budget paid most of the programme according to UNDP, with KfW, Conservation International Ecuador's Global Conservation Fund, the German-backed REM programme, General Motors Ecuador and others reported as contributors. Recipients were landowners and communities, including US$6,337,665.93 of US$10,001,899.26 in 2014 to Indigenous peoples and other collectives. The total paid since 2008 is not reconciled across sources.
Sources
Press and investigations
- Socio Bosque demora los pagos por restricciones presupuestariasEl Comercio · 2017
- Ecuador suma más de 88.000 nuevas hectáreas de bosque nativo protegidas en la Amazonía (Agencia EFE)La Estrella de Panamá · 2024-12-10
Researchers
- Are government incentives effective for avoided deforestation in the tropical Andean forest? (Cuenca, Robalino, Arriagada, Echeverría)PLOS ONE, 13(9): e0203545 · 2018-09-13
- Forest conservation incentives and deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon (Jones, Holland, Naughton-Treves, Morales, Suarez, Keenan)Environmental Conservation, 44(1) · 2016-08-22
International bodies
- Environmental and Social Assessment of Ecuador's Socio Bosque ProgrammeUnited Nations Development Programme · 2018-09-11
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