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Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Water use · Iran · 1995–2026

Lake Urmia decline and the Urmia Lake Restoration Program

Nature's voice · report
My level fell by more than 7 m and I lost about 90 percent of my area in the two decades after 1995, according to NASA Earth Observatory.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
  • My higher salinity stresses brine shrimp and other food sources, and I lost habitat for flamingos, white pelicans and white-headed ducks, according to NASA. NASA Earth Observatory
  • Dust from my exposed lakebed has been linked to health effects, according to NASA, which cites Feizizadeh and co-authors (2023). NASA Earth Observatory
  • In November 2025 I held 240 million m³ of water, against 36 billion m³ in June 1995, according to the West Azerbaijan Department of Environment. Aftab News
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 7 disputed · 4 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
What caused the decline of the lake
  • Researchers Schulz et al. (2020), Scientific Reports: Water-level variations over the analysed period "were mainly triggered by climatic changes"; under the current climate agricultural withdrawals are large relative to remaining inflow, so changing them could stabilise the lake or lead to collapse. Schulz et al., Scientific Reports (Europe PMC record)
  • Researchers AghaKouchak et al. (2015), Journal of Great Lakes Research: The decline was mainly due to water-resources development, agriculture and upstream competition for water; drought alone does not explain it. AghaKouchak et al., Journal of Great Lakes Research
  • Government and regulators Ministry of Energy study, as cited in the Majlis investigation report: 69% of the decline was due to water-resource management; the Majlis report said ULRP reports played down human factors. SNN (Student News Network)
  • Press and investigations Tehran Times, February 2023: Gave two splits without reconciling them: 18% climate and 82% water mismanagement, and 31% natural and 69% human. Tehran Times
  • Researchers NASA Earth Observatory, October 2023: The relative effects of climate, water use and dams are debated. NASA Earth Observatory
Whether the 2016–2020 recovery was due to the programme or to rain
  • Researchers NASA Earth Observatory, October 2023: The 10-year programme began in 2013 and produced some recovery, but strong rains fell in the same period; some research concluded that climate was primarily responsible. NASA Earth Observatory
  • Government and regulators Department of Environment head Issa Kalantari, July 2021: Reported "98 percent" restoration progress. Tehran Times

Lake Urmia in north-west Iran lost about 90% of its area in the two decades after 1995, according to NASA. A state restoration programme set up in 2013 is reported with differing spending totals, and a Majlis investigation report on it was sent to the judiciary in May 2024.

≈ 90%Area lost after 1995 (NASA Earth Observatory)
NASA reported a level drop of more than 7 m and a loss of about 90% of the lake's area over the two decades after 1995. The West Azerbaijan Department of Environment reported a lowest recorded volume of 240 million m³ in November 2025, against 36 billion m³ in June 1995.

Status As of October 2026: level about 1,270.58 m; the Majlis investigation report was referred to the judiciary in May 2024, with no charge or court outcome on record.

What?
Lake Urmia lost about 90% of its area in the two decades after 1995 (NASA). A restoration programme set up in 2013 was funded from the National Development Fund, the annual budget, crisis-management credits and Japanese grants; sources give differing spending totals, and a Majlis investigation report on the programme was referred to the judiciary in May 2024. NASA Earth Observatory
Where?
Lake Urmia, between West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan provinces in north-west Iran; the Kani Sib dam and the tunnel to the lake lie in the Little Zab catchment near Piranshahr, south of the lake. Tehran Times
When?
Highest recorded level in 1995; programme set up in 2013; tunnel construction from 2015; first transfer phase on stream in February 2023; lowest recorded volume in November 2025; Majlis referral to the judiciary on 21 May 2024. Aftab News
Who?
Gained
  • Agricultural Biotechnology Research Institute — Received 32,066 million rials of programme credits, which the Majlis investigation report said were used outside legal rules (allegation) SNN (Student News Network)
  • Farmers and community members in the Japan–UNDP phases — 12,000 trained, water use reduced by 25%, and 750 women given green jobs through a micro-credit fund, according to UN Iran United Nations Iran
  • Irrigated agriculture in the basin — Irrigated farmland in West Azerbaijan grew by 18,000 ha and wells rose by about 20,000 during the restoration period (Majlis investigation report) SNN (Student News Network)
Lost
  • State funding sources — National Development Fund (55%), crisis-management credits (35%) and annual national budget (10%) of about 51,977 billion rials in total project funding (Majlis investigation report) SNN (Student News Network)
Harmed
  • Lake Urmia — Area down about 90% and level down more than 7 m in the two decades after 1995 (NASA) NASA Earth Observatory
  • Brine shrimp, flamingos, white pelicans and white-headed ducks — Higher salinity stressed brine shrimp and other food sources; habitat lost for the three bird species (NASA) NASA Earth Observatory
  • Communities exposed to dust from the lakebed — Health effects linked to dust, citing Feizizadeh et al. (2023) (NASA) NASA Earth Observatory
  • Little Zab users in Iraq's Kurdistan Region — Water shortages in Qaladze after Iran restricted Little Zab flow on 2 June (Rudaw, 2018) Rudaw
Why?
Sources attribute the decline to different mixes of climate and human water use: Schulz et al. (2020) mainly climatic changes; AghaKouchak et al. (2015) mainly water-resources development and agriculture; a Ministry of Energy study, as cited by the Majlis, 69% to water-resource management; NASA says the relative effects are debated. NASA Earth Observatory
How?
The state programme financed environmental projects, dust control and a water-transfer tunnel from the Kani Sib dam; the Majlis committee alleged that indicators reached less than 25% of the main goal and that funds were used outside legal rules, and the Department of Environment head reported "98 percent" progress in July 2021. SNN (Student News Network)
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Lake Urmia is a hypersaline lake in north-west Iran, between West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan provinces. NASA Earth Observatory reported that over the two decades after its 1995 high the level dropped by more than 7 m and the lake lost about 90 percent of its area. AghaKouchak and co-authors (2015) used a satellite composite to estimate about 88% shrinkage, against earlier estimates of 25–50%. NASA compared Landsat images of 6 and 8 September 2020, when the basin was mostly full, with one of 7 September 2023, when it was mostly a dry salt flat; it said above-average precipitation had refilled the basin and drier conditions then lowered it again.

In 2013 the government set up the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP; in Persian, the Lake Urmia Revival Headquarters). Its funding came from the National Development Fund, the annual budget and crisis-management credits, with grants from Japan through UNDP. NASA stated that the 10-year programme produced some recovery but that strong rains fell in the same period, and that some research concluded climate was primarily responsible for the recovery. Construction of the Kani Sib–Lake Urmia water-transfer tunnel, about 36 km long, began in 2015; the Tehran Times reported its first phase (300 million m³ a year) on stream in February 2023, with a second phase planned to raise the transfer to 600 million m³ a year.

Sources give differing totals for the money allocated and spent. The ULRP planning office director said 4.6 trillion rials had been spent from October 2013 to May 2020 (the Tehran Times stated this as more than US$1 billion at the official rate of 42,000 rials; Eghtesad Online gave the same official figure as 4,600 billion toman). A provincial ULRP director gave total allocations to the basin of 2,226 billion toman by March 2018, and the ULRP planning office gave 15,000 billion toman as actually spent in August 2021. The Majlis investigation report of May 2024 put total project funding at about 51,977 billion rials, of which the National Development Fund provided 55%, crisis-management credits 35% and the annual national budget 10%.

On 16 June 2022 Supreme Audit Court prosecutor Ali Kamyar said at a press conference in Urmia that the previous government had promoted the revival more than it had worked on it, and that in some sectors actual spending was one quarter of the amounts claimed. The Majlis approved an investigation into the ULRP on 12 July 2022. On 21 May 2024 the chamber voted to send the final investigation report to the judiciary "to address violations". The investigation report of the Majlis Agriculture, Water, Natural Resources and Environment Committee said programme indicators had reached less than 25% of the main goal; that many projects lacked technical and economic evaluation; that the sewage-to-lake transfer was not completed and some of its funds were spent elsewhere or returned to the treasury; that many contracts were awarded without tender; and that credits to the Agricultural Biotechnology Research Institute were used outside legal rules. These are the committee's allegations; no court proceeding, charge or outcome has been reported.

Lake levels fell again after the 2016–2020 recovery. Iran International's summary reported the lake fully dry in September 2024; Iran International reported the lake at 1,269.74 m, 581 km² and about 0.5 billion m³ on 1 August 2025. The West Azerbaijan Department of Environment reported a record low of 1,269.44 m, 456 km² and 240 million m³ in November 2025, and by June 2026 a volume of 4.28 billion m³ at 1,271.13 m. In October 2026 the East Azerbaijan Regional Water Company reported a level about 110 cm above the same time a year earlier, at about 1,270.58 m, an area of about 1,946 km² and a volume of about 2.52 billion m³.

  1. 1995Highest recorded level, 1,278.40 m, area about 6,900 km² and volume 36 billion m³ (West Azerbaijan Department of Environment, June 2026)
  2. 2013Urmia Lake Restoration Program set up
  3. 2015Construction of the Kani Sib–Lake Urmia tunnel begins
  4. 2016Partial recovery in a run of wet years (to 2020)
  5. 2020ULRP planning office reports 4.6 trillion rials spent since October 2013 (3 May: volume over 5 billion m³)
  6. 2021Department of Environment head reports "98 percent" restoration progress (July); ULRP planning office gives 15,000 billion toman as spent (August)
  7. 2022Supreme Audit Court prosecutor's statement (16 June); Majlis approves an investigation into the ULRP (12 July)
  8. 2023First phase of the Kani Sib–Lake Urmia water transfer on stream (February); lake mostly a dry salt flat on 7 September, per NASA
  9. 2024Majlis votes to send the investigation report to the judiciary (21 May)
  10. 2025Lowest recorded volume, 240 million m³, in November
  11. 2026Volume about 2.52 billion m³ on 11 October (East Azerbaijan Regional Water Company)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“a sharp and unprecedented decline from last year”

Ahmadreza Lahijanzadeh, Department of Environment deputy, to Tasnim (as reported by Iran International) · 10 August 2025 · translated from Persian · Iran International

“the lake's condition is currently being stabilized”

Masoud Tajrishi, ULRP planning office director (via IRNA, reported by the Tehran Times) · May 2020 · translated from Persian · Tehran Times

“very promising”

Hojjat Jabbari, West Azerbaijan Department of Environment director · June 2026 · translated from Persian · Aftab News

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

How much was allocated and spent on the Lake Urmia restoration
Government and regulators
ULRP provincial office (Farhad Sarkhosh), March 2018

Total allocations to the basin of 2,226 billion toman, of which 1,024 billion toman came from the National Development Fund and 1,200 billion toman from budget Articles 10 and 12.

Donya-e-Eqtesad
Press and investigations
Tehran Times, May 2020 (ULRP planning office via IRNA)

4.6 trillion rials spent from October 2013 to May 2020, stated as more than US$1 billion at the official rate of 42,000 rials.

Tehran Times
Press and investigations
Eghtesad Online, October 2021

The same official figure as 4,600 billion toman; 15,000 billion toman stated as actually spent by the ULRP planning office (August 2021); 11,000 billion toman over seven years attributed to Issa Kalantari; 6,000 billion toman spent by December 2020 (provincial office director).

Eghtesad Online
Government and regulators
Department of Environment head Issa Kalantari, July 2021

150 trillion rials earmarked over seven years.

Tehran Times
Government and regulators
MP Mohammadreza Mirtajodini, November 2023

2,000 billion toman allocated and paid in the year; the previous government allocated about 8,000 billion toman; the Raisi government over 5,000 billion toman including that year.

Hamshahri Online
Government and regulators
Majlis investigation report, May 2024

Total project funding of about 51,977 billion rials.

SNN (Student News Network)
What caused the decline of the lake
Researchers
Schulz et al. (2020), Scientific Reports

Water-level variations over the analysed period "were mainly triggered by climatic changes"; under the current climate agricultural withdrawals are large relative to remaining inflow, so changing them could stabilise the lake or lead to collapse.

Schulz et al., Scientific Reports (Europe PMC record)
Researchers
AghaKouchak et al. (2015), Journal of Great Lakes Research

The decline was mainly due to water-resources development, agriculture and upstream competition for water; drought alone does not explain it.

AghaKouchak et al., Journal of Great Lakes Research
Government and regulators
Ministry of Energy study, as cited in the Majlis investigation report

69% of the decline was due to water-resource management; the Majlis report said ULRP reports played down human factors.

SNN (Student News Network)
Press and investigations
Tehran Times, February 2023

Gave two splits without reconciling them: 18% climate and 82% water mismanagement, and 31% natural and 69% human.

Tehran Times
Researchers
NASA Earth Observatory, October 2023

The relative effects of climate, water use and dams are debated.

NASA Earth Observatory
Whether the 2016–2020 recovery was due to the programme or to rain
Researchers
NASA Earth Observatory, October 2023

The 10-year programme began in 2013 and produced some recovery, but strong rains fell in the same period; some research concluded that climate was primarily responsible.

NASA Earth Observatory
Government and regulators
Department of Environment head Issa Kalantari, July 2021

Reported "98 percent" restoration progress.

Tehran Times
How far the programme reached its goals
Government and regulators
Majlis investigation report, May 2024; Somayeh Rafiei, head of the Majlis Environment Faction

Programme indicators reached less than 25% of the main goal; shortcomings in implementation, oversight and goal-setting.

Iran International
Government and regulators
Department of Environment head Issa Kalantari, July 2021

"98 percent" restoration progress.

Tehran Times
Government and regulators
West Azerbaijan Department of Environment director Hojjat Jabbari, June 2026

Described the lake's condition as "very promising", with volume 18 times the November 2025 low.

Aftab News

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • The lake's condition was being stabilized; volume over 5 billion m³ on 3 May 2020, with 9.5 billion m³ still needed to reach the ecological level of 1,274.10 m
    ULRP planning office, via IRNA · Tehran Times
  • "98 percent" restoration progress, with the ecological level expected by March 2022; area 2,917 km² and level 1,271 m
    Issa Kalantari, head of the Department of Environment · Tehran Times
  • Earlier phases of the Japan–UNDP partnership trained 12,000 farmers and community members, reduced water use by 25%, raised irrigation efficiency by almost 42% and gave 750 women green jobs through a micro-credit fund
    UN Iran, reporting results of the Japan–UNDP partnership · United Nations Iran
  • Drought was one of the main factors; the lake would dry fully by the end of summer if conditions continued
    Ahmadreza Lahijanzadeh, Department of Environment deputy · Iran International

Recorded

  • Level fell by more than 7 m and area by about 90% in the two decades after 1995 (NASA Earth Observatory, October 2023)
  • Volume 36 billion m³ in June 1995; lowest recorded 240 million m³ in November 2025 (West Azerbaijan Department of Environment)
  • Wells in West Azerbaijan rose by about 20,000 to 144,572 and irrigated farmland grew by 18,000 ha during the restoration period (Majlis investigation report)
  • No Lake Urmia budget line in the 1397 (2018/19) Iranian budget (ULRP provincial director Farhad Sarkhosh)
  • Of 800 billion toman allocated for 1395 (2016/17), about half had been paid by the end of 1396 (March 2018); of 13 water-treatment and transfer projects only two were under construction (Masoud Tajrishi, September 2018)
  • Majlis investigation report: programme indicators reached less than 25% of the main goal; use of international funding unclear; many projects lacked technical and economic evaluation
  • Japan's seventh contribution to UNDP Iran was US$1 million (UN Iran, 22 April 2020)
  • Eghtesad Online (October 2021) said the multi-million-dollar Japanese donations "could not be traced"
  • Rudaw reported in 2018 water shortages in Qaladze, in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, after Iran restricted Little Zab flow on 2 June; no named Iraqi official was quoted

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
Total allocations to the Lake Urmia basin to March 2018 (provincial ULRP director)2226bn
Window: to March 2018
2,226 billion toman, of which 1,024 billion from the National Development Fund and 1,200 billion from budget Articles 10 and 12.
Spent per ULRP planning office (August 2021)15000bn
Window: 2013–2021
15,000 billion toman; stated as actually spent. Other sources give 11,000 billion toman over seven years and 6,000 billion toman spent by December 2020.
Allocated and paid in the year to November 2023 (MP Mohammadreza Mirtajodini)2000bn
Window: 2023
2,000 billion toman; the same MP said the previous government allocated about 8,000 billion toman.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: toman · Window: Mixed — see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • ulrp (May 2020): The lake's condition was being stabilized; volume over 5 billion m³ on 3 May 2020. · Tehran Times
  • ulrp (September 2018): The headquarters fell behind its plans for lack of funds, completed stabilisation with two years of funding, and prioritised lower-cost projects. · Taadol newspaper
  • iran-doe (July 2021): Reported "98 percent" restoration progress and expected the ecological level by March 2022. · Tehran Times
  • iran-doe (August 2025): Drought was one of the main factors; the lake would dry fully by the end of summer if conditions continued. · Iran International
  • iran-supreme-audit-court (16 June 2022): Its prosecutor said the previous government promoted the revival more than it worked on it, and that in some sectors actual spending was one quarter of the amounts claimed. · Eghtesad Online

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

  1. 2022–2024Outcome not on record
    Majlis investigation into the Urmia Lake Restoration Program
    Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis), Agriculture, Water, Natural Resources and Environment Committee; report referred to the judiciary · Administrative · Majlis Agriculture, Water, Natural Resources and Environment Committee → Urmia Lake Restoration Program (positions referred to: the First Vice President as head and the Department of Environment head as secretary)

    The Majlis approved the investigation on 12 July 2022. On 21 May 2024 the chamber voted to send the final report to the judiciary "to address violations". The committee's allegations were: programme indicators below 25% of the main goal; many projects without technical and economic evaluation; the sewage-to-lake transfer not completed and some of its funds spent elsewhere or returned to the treasury; many contracts awarded without tender; credits to the Agricultural Biotechnology Research Institute (32,066 million rials) used outside legal rules; and spending on staff trips, a bus and conference equipment lacking transparency. No charge or court proceeding has been reported. SNN (Student News Network)

  2. 2022–Outcome not on record
    Supreme Audit Court prosecutor's statement on ULRP-era spending
    Supreme Audit Court (press conference in Urmia, 16 June 2022) · Administrative · Supreme Audit Court prosecutor Ali Kamyar → Previous government's restoration spending

    The prosecutor said the previous government promoted the revival more than it worked on it and that in some sectors actual spending was one quarter of the amounts claimed. The statement was made at a press conference. Eghtesad Online

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Area lost after 1995
≈ 90%
NASA Earth Observatory, over the two decades after 1995
Lowest recorded volume
240 million m³
November 2025, against 36 billion m³ in June 1995 (West Azerbaijan Department of Environment)
Spending figures
2,226 – 15,000 billion toman
Allocations to March 2018 and amount stated as spent by August 2021; sources do not reconcile them
Programme indicators
< 25% of main goal
Majlis investigation report, May 2024

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

Nature

  • Disputed What caused the decline of the lake
  • Disputed Whether the 2016–2020 recovery was due to the programme or to rain

Court

  • Unclear Majlis investigation into the Urmia Lake Restoration Program: outcome not on record.
  • Unclear Supreme Audit Court prosecutor's statement on ULRP-era spending: outcome not on record.

Accounts

  • Disputed How much was allocated and spent on the Lake Urmia restoration
  • Disputed How far the programme reached its goals

Record

  • Unclear Figures differ: the Tehran Times reported the ULRP planning office's May 2020 spending as 4.6 trillion rials, stated as more than US$1 billion at the official rate of 42,000 rials; Eghtesad Online (October 2021) gave the same official figure as 4,600 billion toman.
  • Disputed Figures differ: SNN gives the Majlis investigation's total project funding as 51,977 billion rials; Iran International (Persian) gives "about 51 billion rials".
  • Disputed Figures differ: the Tehran Times (February 2023) gives the Kani Sib tunnel cost as 35 trillion rials, stated as about US$77 million; other outlets have given about US$200 million (Iran Times) and US$340 million (Trend).
  • Unclear Unclear: how the Japanese grants were used. Eghtesad Online (October 2021) said the donations could not be traced; the Majlis investigation report said the use of international funding was unclear.
  • None on record None on record: charges or a court outcome after the May 2024 referral.
  • Disputed Disputed: the cause of the decline and of the 2016–2020 recovery (see disputes).

Did the harm stop?

The decline continued after the programme began: the lake reached its lowest recorded volume in November 2025, and the East Azerbaijan Regional Water Company reported about 2.52 billion m³ in October 2026.

Who paid?

The lake and the dust-exposed communities around it bore the loss. State funds (National Development Fund, annual budget, crisis-management credits) and Japanese grants through UNDP paid for the programme; sources give differing totals.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies

Government and regulators

  1. Lake Urmia Shrivels Again
    NASA Earth Observatory · 2023-10-10

Researchers

  1. Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: Call for action
    AghaKouchak et al., Journal of Great Lakes Research · 2015-03
  2. Climate change or irrigated agriculture: what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia
    Schulz et al., Scientific Reports (Europe PMC record) · 2020-01-14

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