Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Agriculture, livestock and food · Africa (13 focus countries) · 2006

AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa)

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 3 disputed See the gaps

AGRA was set up in 2006 by the Gates and Rockefeller foundations to double the yields and incomes of 30 million households by 2020. A 2021 evaluation commissioned by the Gates Foundation said it did not meet its headline goal; reports on hunger and yields in its focus countries give conflicting figures.

+30%Reported change in the number of hungry people in 13 focus countries
From the 2020 report False Promises, as reported by U.S. Right to Know. AGRA disputed the report and the attribution of the change to AGRA is contested.

Status As of September 2026: a 20-year review by Tufts GDAE (August 2026) and AGRA report conflicting results; AGRA continues under president Alice Ruhweza.

What?
AGRA, set up by the Gates and Rockefeller foundations in 2006 to double the yield and income of 30 million households by 2020 and halve food insecurity. Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute
Where?
13 focus countries in Africa (False Promises); the Mathematica evaluation covered 6 countries. U.S. Right to Know
When?
From 2006; evaluations in 2020, 2021 and 2026. Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute
Who?
Gained
  • Seed companies and input dealers — Strengthened by the programme, according to the Gates-commissioned evaluation; results at farmer level were 'mixed'. Mathematica
Lost
  • Traditional crops (millet, sorghum) — Declined during the period reviewed. AgriFocus Africa
Harmed
None on record
Why?
The goal was set by the funders, according to Tufts GDAE. Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute
How?
Grant funding, seed-law reform support and seed and fertiliser packages; governments remained dependent on AGRA for policy-making. Mathematica
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

AGRA was founded in 2006 by the Gates and Rockefeller foundations. Its goal was to double the yield and income of 30 million households by 2020 and to halve food insecurity. According to the Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute, the agenda was set by the donor.

The Gates Foundation gave AGRA US$661 million up to 2018, about two-thirds of its grants, according to figures reported by U.S. Right to Know. In 2022 the foundation committed a further US$200 million over five years. The US government's contribution was US$90 million.

In 2020 the report False Promises said that the number of hungry people in AGRA's 13 focus countries had risen 30% and that maize yields had risen 29% over 12 years against a target of 100%. AGRA said the report was not peer-reviewed and did not respond concretely to its data.

A 2021 evaluation by Mathematica, commissioned by the Gates Foundation, said: "AGRA did not meet its headline goal." Maize yields rose in 3 of 6 countries, seed-law reforms grew the private sector, and governments remained dependent on AGRA for policy-making. In September 2022 the words "Green Revolution" were dropped from the organisation's name; no reason was given.

Twenty-year assessments differ. Tufts reported a 25% rise in a yield index and a 58% rise in the number of undernourished people, to about 150 million, while AGRA said output and farmers' incomes had doubled. Tufts accepted that the outcome cannot be attributed to AGRA alone. In March 2025 Alice Ruhweza, a former WWF Africa director, became AGRA's president.

  1. 2006AGRA founded by the Gates and Rockefeller foundations; goal of doubling yields and incomes of 30 million households by 2020
  2. 2018Gates Foundation grants to AGRA reach US$661 million
  3. 2020False Promises report: hunger up 30% in 13 focus countries; 170 organisations from 83 countries object to the appointment of AGRA's former president as special envoy to the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit
  4. 2021Mathematica evaluation commissioned by the Gates Foundation: AGRA did not meet its headline goal
  5. 2022"Green Revolution" dropped from the name (September); Gates Foundation commits a further US$200 million over five years
  6. 2025Alice Ruhweza becomes AGRA president (March)
  7. 2026Tufts GDAE 20-year review (August): yield index +25%, undernourished +58%; AGRA says output and incomes doubled

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“AGRA did not meet its headline goal.”

Mathematica evaluation commissioned by the Gates Foundation · 2021 · Mathematica

“My investment group chose to do this. It is not connected to climate”

Bill Gates, on the foundation-linked farmland purchases · 2021 · AgFunderNews

“There isn't some grand scheme involved”

Bill Gates, on the farmland holdings · 2023 · Entrepreneur

“There's a real business argument to be made”

A Monsanto executive, on the WEMA drought-tolerant maize project · 2016, as reported by St. Louis Public Radio

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Did AGRA meet its goals, and did hunger rise because of it?
Communities and civil society
False Promises report, as reported by U.S. Right to Know

The number of hungry people in 13 focus countries rose 30%; maize yield rose 29% in 12 years against a target of 100%.

U.S. Right to Know
Company or project
AGRA

Said the report was not peer-reviewed; gave no concrete response to its data. Later said output and farmer incomes had doubled over 20 years.

U.S. Right to Know
Researchers
Mathematica, commissioned by the Gates Foundation

"AGRA did not meet its headline goal." Maize yields rose in 3 of 6 countries.

Mathematica
Researchers
Tufts GDAE

Yield index +25% and undernourished people +58% over 20 years; accepts the outcome cannot be attributed to AGRA alone.

Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute
Should AGRA's former president have been special envoy to the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit?
International bodies
United Nations

Named Agnes Kalibata, a former AGRA president, special envoy to the 2021 Food Systems Summit.

United Nations
Communities and civil society
170 organisations from 83 countries (HOMEF call)

Called for the appointment to be revoked.

HOMEF

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

Recorded

  • Gates Foundation grants to AGRA up to 2018: US$661 million, about two-thirds of grants; US government contribution US$90 million.
    U.S. Right to Know
  • A further five-year US$200 million from the Gates Foundation in 2022.
    Food Tank
  • False Promises (2020): the number of hungry people in 13 focus countries rose 30% and maize yield rose 29% in 12 years against a target of 100%.
    U.S. Right to Know
  • Mathematica evaluation (2021): maize yields rose in 3 of 6 countries; seed reforms grew the private sector; governments remained dependent on AGRA in policy-making; seed companies and input dealers were strengthened; results at farmer level were 'mixed'.
    Mathematica
  • In September 2022 'Green Revolution' was dropped from AGRA's name; no reason was given.
    Food Tank
  • Twenty-year balance (Tufts GDAE): yield index +25%; undernourished people +58% to about 150 million; traditional crops such as millet and sorghum declined.
    Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute
  • Alice Ruhweza, AGRA's president since March 2025, is a former WWF Africa director. The Green Climate Fund approved project FP257, run by AGRA, with a grant of US$75.6 million.
    Capital FM
  • Agnes Kalibata, a former AGRA president, was appointed special envoy to the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit; 170 organisations from 83 countries objected.
    HOMEF
  • The Gates Foundation gave CGIAR more than US$720 million in 2003-2014. In a GRAIN analysis of older data, about 80% of the foundation's agricultural grants outside research networks went to US and European organisations and about 10% to Africa.
    Global Agriculture
  • Bill Gates is described as the largest private owner of US farmland: 275,000 acres in 17 states, held through Cascade and Cottonwood, about 0.03% of US farmland.
    The Land Report
  • In 2010 the Gates Foundation Trust bought 500,000 Monsanto shares, about US$27.6 million.
    Biofortified
  • Funding for the WEMA drought-tolerant maize project for Africa came mostly from the Gates Foundation; Monsanto technology was provided royalty-free.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: USD · Window: 2006-2022. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • agra (2020): Said the False Promises report was not peer-reviewed and gave no concrete response to its data. · U.S. Right to Know
  • agra (2026): Said output and farmer incomes had doubled over 20 years. · AgriFocus Africa
  • gates-foundation (2021): Commissioned the Mathematica evaluation of AGRA, which found the headline goal was not met. · Mathematica

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Hungry people, 13 focus countries
+30%
False Promises (2020); AGRA disputed the report
Yield index over 20 years
+25%
Tufts GDAE (2026); undernourished +58%
Traditional crops
Declined
Millet and sorghum, per reporting on the Tufts review

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

Accounts

  • Disputed Did AGRA meet its goals, and did hunger rise because of it?
  • Disputed Should AGRA's former president have been special envoy to the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit?

Record

  • None on record No document supporting claims of a concealed intent behind the Gates Foundation's agricultural funding was found in the sources reviewed.
  • Insufficient A report that the Rockefeller Foundation and IKEA stopped core funding is reported but not independently verified.
  • Disputed The sources reviewed do not give a single agreed figure for the change in hunger or yields attributable to AGRA: the Tufts review and AGRA give conflicting results.

Did the harm stop?

No end to the programme is recorded in the sources reviewed; the name changed in September 2022 and a new president took office in March 2025.

Who paid?

Not established in the sources reviewed; reports disagree on how far hunger and yield outcomes in the focus countries can be attributed to AGRA.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies

Press and investigations

  4. Bill Gates, top 100 landowners
    The Land Report · 2021
  5. Bill Gates farmland article
    Entrepreneur · 2023

Communities and civil society

Researchers

  1. Tufts GDAE report on AGRA's first 20 years (final, August 2026)
    Tufts Global Development and Environment Institute · 2026-08

International bodies

  1. FP257 project page
    Green Climate Fund ·

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