Dutch nitrogen crisis and farm buyouts
- Government and regulators Legal target as cited by the RIVM: 74% of nitrogen-sensitive nature to be kept below its critical deposition value by 2035. RIVM
- Government and regulators RIVM: The target could not be reached with current policy; the best case was about 40% in 2035. Average deposition in 2021 was about 1,440 mol/ha/year against about 850 needed. RIVM
The Netherlands cut its agricultural nitrogen surplus by 57% between 1990 and 2023, but its national institute for public health and the environment (RIVM) said in 2024 that the legal 2035 target for nitrogen-sensitive nature could not be met under current policy. By September 2026 a voluntary livestock buyout scheme had 279 finalised files.
RIVM, 14 June 2024: the legal target could not be reached with current policy; about 40% was the best-case scenario.
Status As of 10 September 2026: 279 buyout files finalised; no ruling on the 2035 nature target found in the verified record.
- Dutch agricultural exporters — Recorded agricultural exports of €137.5 billion in 2025 (up 8.4%), of which €88.4 billion Dutch-origin and €49.1 billion re-exports; two thirds of the rise came from prices. Export value, not profit.
- Water boards and taxpayers — Water boards spent more than €0.5 billion a year on wastewater treatment (NOS, 18 March 2024), reported as a taxpayer cost.
- Drinking-water companies (Vewin) — Said the effort to keep water clean kept growing without a guarantee that the pollution would be gone.
- Nitrogen-sensitive nature and Dutch water bodies — None of about 750 surface water bodies was in good status; 4 of 23 groundwater bodies were; the 2035 nature target was not reachable under current policy. RIVM
- Neighbouring countries receiving manure — Germany received 53% of 2.74 million tonnes of Dutch manure exported in the first nine months of 2025; nitrogen sent to Germany rose 50% and phosphate 44%. topagrar
What happened
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported on 24 January 2025 that the nitrogen surplus of Dutch agriculture was 265 million kg in 2023. That was 14% lower than in 2022 and 57% lower than in 1990. Of the 2023 surplus, 182 million kg went to soil and 83 million kg to air. Nitrogen in animal manure was 464 million kg, almost the same as in 2022.
On 14 June 2024 the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) said that the legal target for 2035, 74%, could not be reached with current policy, and that about 40% was the best-case outcome. According to the RIVM, average nitrogen deposition in 2021 was about 1,440 mol per hectare per year against about 850 needed for the target.
The RIVM’s national monitoring network for the effects of manure policy, which has measured since 1992, showed average nitrate falling substantially since the early 1990s, rising during the 2018–2020 drought and falling in 2023 and 2024, which the RIVM attributed to heavy rainfall. In 2024 almost half of the farms in the loess region were still above the limit. In the Water Framework Directive interim assessment of December 2024, none of about 750 surface water bodies was in good status, although about 80% of the norms were met, and 4 of 23 groundwater bodies were in good status. The Netherlands was not on track for the 2027 target.
The record also shows a state programme of voluntary livestock buyouts (Lbv and Lbv-plus). According to the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) table of 10 September 2026, there were 1,576 applications, 1,438 positive decisions, 522 withdrawals after a positive decision, 914 signed contracts and 279 finalised files. Applications came from pig farms (573), dairy farms (446), poultry farms (243) and veal farms (210). It is also reported that the government set aside €24.3 billion for nitrogen policy in 2022 and projected that about 30% of livestock farms could close, with buyouts remaining voluntary.
Manure has also moved abroad. In the first nine months of 2025 the Netherlands exported 2.74 million tonnes of manure, 26% more than in the same period of the previous year. Germany took 1.4 million tonnes (53%), France about 29% and Belgium 16%. The nitrogen going to Germany rose 50% and the phosphate 44%, according to topagrar, citing RVO data. A question on the increase was put to the German Federal Parliament in March 2026 (Drucksache 21/4407).
- 1990Baseline year for the CBS comparison of the agricultural nitrogen surplus
- 20182018–2020 drought: average nitrate in the RIVM monitoring network rises
- 2021Average nitrogen deposition on sensitive nature about 1,440 mol/ha/year (RIVM); about 850 needed for the 2035 target
- 2022Government sets aside €24.3 billion for nitrogen policy (reported, no primary source)
- 2023Agricultural nitrogen surplus 265 million kg, 57% below 1990 (CBS)
- 2024RIVM (14 Jun): legal 2035 target not achievable with current policy; nitrate falls in 2023 and 2024 on heavy rainfall; Water Framework Directive interim assessment (Dec)
- 2025CBS publishes 2023 surplus (24 Jan); manure exports up 26% in the first nine months, Germany 53%
- 2026German Federal Parliament question on Dutch manure imports (Mar); RVO buyout table (10 Sep): 279 finalised files
What was said
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
74% of nitrogen-sensitive nature to be kept below its critical deposition value by 2035.
RIVMThe target could not be reached with current policy; the best case was about 40% in 2035. Average deposition in 2021 was about 1,440 mol/ha/year against about 850 needed.
RIVMHow it looked
Shown
- The agricultural nitrogen surplus in 2023 was 57% below the 1990 level.Statistics Netherlands (CBS), 24 January 2025 · Statistics Netherlands (CBS)
- A table of buyout applications, positive decisions, signed contracts and finalised files for the Lbv and Lbv-plus schemes.Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO), 10 September 2026 · Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO)
Recorded
- Nitrogen in animal manure was 464 million kg in 2023, almost unchanged from 2022.
- Average nitrogen deposition in 2021 was about 1,440 mol/ha/year against about 850 needed for the 2035 target; the best case for 2035 was about 40% against a legal 74%.
- Nitrate in the RIVM network rose in the 2018–2020 drought and fell in 2023 and 2024 on heavy rainfall; in 2024 almost half of farms in the loess region were still above the limit.
- None of about 750 surface water bodies was in good status and 4 of 23 groundwater bodies were (interim assessment, December 2024).
- Of 1,438 positive buyout decisions, 522 applications were withdrawn, 914 contracts were signed and 279 files were finalised (10 September 2026).
- Manure exports in the first nine months of 2025: 2.74 million tonnes, up 26%; 53% to Germany, about 29% to France, 16% to Belgium.
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- Dutch government (2022): Set aside €24.3 billion for nitrogen policy in 2022 and projected that about 30% of livestock farms could close; buyouts remained voluntary (reported; no primary source located).
- Vewin, association of Dutch drinking-water companies (18 March 2024): Its chair, Litjens, said the effort kept growing and that even then there was no guarantee that the pollution would be gone (reported by NOS).
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Nature
- Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
- Disputed Can the legal 2035 nitrogen target for nature be met?
Record
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the Council of State (Raad van State) ruled on 29 May 2019 that the nitrogen programme (PAS) could not serve as the basis for nature permits; a ministry list reportedly counted about 18,000 projects at risk, not all of which stopped.
- Unclear Reported but not independently verified: ABN AMRO calculated that €14 billion of construction projects were at risk after the 2019 ruling, with about 180 cases pending at the time.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: on 22 January 2025 The Hague court ruled in a Greenpeace case that the state acted unlawfully by not halting the deterioration of nitrogen-sensitive nature, ordering compliance with a 2030 target of 50% of nature below the critical deposition value on pain of a €10 million penalty; the government appealed in April 2025 and the appeal had no suspensive effect. No appeal ruling was found.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the government raised the buyout budget in April 2024 to about €3 billion, of which €1.82 billion for Lbv-plus (Rijksoverheid).
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: a joint investigation by NRC, Follow the Money and Omroep Gelderland in January 2026 found that about €1.5 billion more was spent than necessary because of the voluntary design; that buying the 130 largest peak polluters for about €325 million could have achieved the same nitrogen reduction; that 666 of 3,000 eligible businesses applied; and that payments ranged from 60 cents to nearly €200 per gram of nitrogen reduced in two cases.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: Minister Wiersma (BBB) said forced closure was legally complex and announced a new voluntary programme with lower payments; an ESB analysis of June 2026 reportedly called buyouts expensive with very limited additional nitrogen reduction (not independently confirmed).
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the government’s own letter reportedly states that a farmer with a positive buyout decision is not obliged to close the business; the scheme reportedly removes animals and production rights without requiring the land to leave farming.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: farmland prices averaged €95,400 per hectare in 2025 (up 11.9%) and €108,500 in the second quarter of 2026.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the RIVM reported that 30% of nitrogen-sensitive nature was below the critical deposition value in 2023 and 31% in 2024; the KDW values were tightened in 2023 for 32 habitat types; 118 of 160–168 Natura 2000 sites were reported to have nitrogen-sensitive habitats under excess load.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) came first in all 12 provinces in March 2023 and fell to 4 seats in the 29 October 2025 general election; the European Commission rejected a new Dutch derogation request, notified to Parliament on 23 December 2025; the Dutch manure board reportedly projected up to 79 million kg of unplaced manure nitrogen in 2026.
- Disputed Conflicting or unconfirmed figures: a figure attributed to CBS gave a 2024 agricultural nitrogen surplus of 295 million kg, of which 220 million kg to soil; this was not confirmed on a CBS page.
- None on record No data was found on how land from farms closed under the buyout schemes was subsequently used (kept in farming, returned to nature, or sold to whom).
Did the harm stop?
Not stopped on the record: the agricultural nitrogen surplus fell 57% from 1990 to 2023, but the RIVM said in 2024 that the 2035 target for nature could not be met with current policy; buyouts had 279 finalised files on 10 September 2026.
Who paid?
Reported costs fall on water boards (more than €0.5 billion a year on wastewater treatment, NOS, March 2024), drinking-water companies and neighbouring countries receiving Dutch manure. The cost of the buyouts to the state is not verified.
Sources
Government and regulators
- Agricultural nitrogen surplus 2023Statistics Netherlands (CBS) · 2025-01-24
- Lbv-plus: current status (application and decision table)Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) · 2026-09-10
- More budget and longer opening for voluntary livestock termination schemes (not independently confirmed)Rijksoverheid · 2024-04-08
- Nitrogen surplus and mineral balance (CBS dossier; 2024 figure not confirmed)Statistics Netherlands (CBS) · 2025
Press and investigations
- Dutch manure exports, first nine months of 2025 (citing RVO data)topagrar · 2025-10-21
Connected cases
- Dutch PFAS soil limit, 2019 Netherlands · 2019
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) (Research institution) — here: Monitoring of deposition on nature and nitrate; assessment of the 2035 target; there: National institute for public health and the environment; published the explanation of the limit
- Government of the Netherlands (Government) — here: Sets nitrogen policy and funds the voluntary buyouts; there: Issued the interim PFAS action framework
- Netherlands Q fever outbreak and goat sector growth Netherlands · 2021
- Government of the Netherlands (Government) — here: Sets nitrogen policy and funds the voluntary buyouts; there: Government; ordered culls and described Q fever as under control
- RWE drops 1.4 billion euro claim over Dutch coal ban; Hemweg-8 closure announced Netherlands · 2019–2023
- Government of the Netherlands (Government) — here: Sets nitrogen policy and funds the voluntary buyouts; there: Defendant in the treaty claims; issued the coal ban
- RWE sought €1.4bn from the Netherlands over its coal phase-out Netherlands · 2019–2023
- Government of the Netherlands (Government) — here: Sets nitrogen policy and funds the voluntary buyouts; there: defendant in the RWE claim