Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · Sahel · 2021–2024

Sahel restoration carbon finance: AFR100 pledges, a projected USD 28bn carbon asset value and 11 registered projects in Great Green Wall countries

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 4 none on record · 1 not measured · 1 disputed See the gaps

AFR100 stated that 33 African countries had committed to restore 129.27 million hectares, with USD 1bn in development finance and USD 481 million in private commitments. A December 2024 WEF and Tree Aid paper projected carbon asset value of up to USD 28bn in Great Green Wall countries, where 11 of Africa's 74 registered nature-based voluntary carbon projects were located.

Up to USD 28bnProjected carbon asset value, Great Green Wall countries
Projection: 1.8 billion tCO2e of untapped potential at 2023 prices (WEF and Tree Aid, December 2024). No issued-credit total for Sahel tree-planting projects is on record.

Status As of December 2024: carbon asset value projected at up to USD 28bn; 11 nature-based registered projects in Great Green Wall countries; no issued-credit totals for Sahel tree-planting projects on record.

What?
Hectare pledges and projected carbon revenues were presented as finance for Sahel restoration: AFR100 stated USD 1bn in development finance and USD 481 million in private commitments Africa-wide, and a December 2024 WEF and Tree Aid paper projected carbon asset value of up to USD 28bn in Great Green Wall countries. World Economic Forum with Tree Aid
Where?
Africa-wide for AFR100 with pledges by Sahel countries; Great Green Wall countries for the carbon projects. AFR100
When?
AFR100 two-pager of July 2023; Bezos Earth Fund announcement of 5 September 2023; WEF and Tree Aid white paper of December 2024. World Economic Forum with Tree Aid
Who?
Gained
  • Investors and communities in the illustrative Tree Aid project — Projected: 55% of credits to investors at USD 10.50 a credit with a 19.1% investor internal rate of return, and 45% to communities (USD 90-120 million projected). World Economic Forum with Tree Aid
Lost
None on record
Harmed
None on record
Why?
Restoration pledges and voluntary carbon credits were presented as a way to finance Sahel land restoration; the UNCCD noted that many restoration projects are not profitable. UNCCD
How?
Hectare pledges by countries, development finance and private commitments through AFR100, and voluntary carbon market projects registered under methodologies such as Verra VM0047. World Economic Forum with Tree Aid
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The AFR100 two-pager (file dated July 2023) states that '33 countries have committed to restore 129.27 million hectares', with '$1B in development finance' and a '$481M private sector commitment'. The figures cover Africa as a whole.

On 5 September 2023 the Bezos Earth Fund announced USD 22.8 million in new grants to AFR100 for locally led restoration in Africa, in addition to USD 42.2 million previously granted. The landscapes named are the Greater Rift Valley (Kenya) and the Lake Kivu/Rusizi basin (DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi).

A December 2024 white paper from the World Economic Forum with Tree Aid, 'The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects', counted 1,395 registered voluntary carbon market projects in Africa, of which only 74 were nature-based, 'with just 11 of these in GGW countries' (afforestation, reforestation and revegetation). It estimated untapped potential at 1.8 billion tCO2e, with a carbon asset value of up to USD 28bn at 2023 prices. These are projections of potential value, not issued or sold credits.

The white paper describes an illustrative Tree Aid project under development, using the Verra VM0047 methodology (marked 'TBC'): 14,000 ha of savannah restoration plus 1,500 ha of agroforestry, 8 million trees, 4.5 million tCO2e expected, USD 26.1 million of investment over seven years and a 19.1% investor internal rate of return. It assigns 55% of credits to investors at USD 10.50 a credit and 45% to communities, with USD 90-120 million projected.

The UNCCD's 2020 status report on the Great Green Wall stated that greenhouse gas offsetting projects in land use often face governance issues over the control of land and a risk of false expectations about carbon revenues, and that many restoration projects are not profitable.

  1. 2020UNCCD status report on offsetting governance risks and carbon revenue expectations (September)
  2. 2023AFR100 two-pager (July); Bezos Earth Fund announces USD 22.8 million for locally led restoration in Africa (5 Sep)
  3. 2024WEF and Tree Aid white paper on Great Green Wall voluntary carbon market projects (December)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“with just 11 of these in GGW countries”

“33 countries have committed to restore 129.27 million hectares”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Can voluntary carbon credits finance Sahel restoration?
International bodies
WEF and Tree Aid

Present Great Green Wall voluntary carbon market projects as an investment opportunity while acknowledging scepticism of offsetting, land-conversion risk, disputed tenure and the risk of excluding local communities (section headings).

World Economic Forum with Tree Aid
International bodies
UNCCD (2020 status report)

Offsetting projects in land use often face governance issues over land control and a risk of false expectations about carbon revenues; many restoration projects are not profitable.

UNCCD

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • AFR100: '$1B in development finance' and '$481M private sector commitment'.
  • WEF and Tree Aid: carbon asset value of up to USD 28bn at 2023 prices for Great Green Wall countries.
  • Illustrative Tree Aid project: 8 million trees, 4.5 million tCO2e expected and a 19.1% investor internal rate of return.

Recorded

  • 1,395 registered voluntary carbon market projects in Africa, 74 nature-based, 11 of them in Great Green Wall countries (white paper, December 2024).
  • The Tree Aid model project's methodology is marked 'TBC' and its credits are not yet issued.
  • The Bezos Earth Fund announcement names no Sahel country among its landscapes.
  • All carbon amounts in the white paper are projections.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
AFR100 development finance (Africa-wide)$1bn
Stated by AFR100 as '$1B in development finance'.
AFR100 private sector commitment (Africa-wide)$481m
Stated as '$481M private sector commitment'.
Bezos Earth Fund: new grants to AFR100$23m
Window: 5 Sep 2023
Landscapes named are in Kenya, DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi.
Bezos Earth Fund: previously granted to AFR100$42m

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Projected carbon asset value in Great Green Wall countries (untapped potential, 2023 prices) estimate$28bn
Projection of 1.8 billion tCO2e of potential, not issued credits.
Illustrative Tree Aid project: investment over seven years estimate$26m
Under development; credits not yet issued.
Currency: USD · Window: Mixed - see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Restoration pledged by 33 countries
129.27 million ha
AFR100, Africa-wide
Nature-based registered projects in Great Green Wall countries
11 of 74
Africa's registered voluntary carbon market projects, December 2024
Projected carbon asset value
Up to USD 28bn
1.8 billion tCO2e at 2023 prices; a projection

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court case

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

Court

Accounts

  • Disputed Can voluntary carbon credits finance Sahel restoration?

Record

  • None on record None on record: issued-credit totals for Sahel tree-planting projects; the Tree Aid model project's methodology is marked 'TBC' and its credits are not yet issued.
  • None on record None on record: a Sahel country among the landscapes named in the Bezos Earth Fund announcement of 5 September 2023.
  • None on record None on record: court proceedings or insurance claims.

Did the harm stop?

None on record.

Who paid?

None on record: AFR100's development finance and private commitments are stated as Africa-wide commitments, and all carbon amounts in the white paper are projections.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers

Press and investigations

  1. AFR100 two-pager
    AFR100 · 2023-07

Communities and civil society

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Carbon and conservation finance

Buffer pool
A reserve of credits held back from sale by a carbon programme to cover future losses, such as forest burned or logged after credits were issued. It works as the programme's own insurance.
Carbon credit
A certificate representing one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) that a project says it reduced, avoided or removed. Buyers use credits to balance their own emissions in climate claims.
Offset
Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.
REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.
Standard-setter and registry
An organisation that writes the rules for carbon credits, approves projects, and records when credits are issued and retired. Such bodies typically charge fees per credit.
Voluntary carbon market
Trade in carbon credits bought by choice, mostly by companies, outside legally binding emission schemes.
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