Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · Pakistan · 2015–2025

Delta Blue Carbon mangrove project (Pakistan)

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Disputed
What the record lacks: 5 none on record · 2 not disclosed · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 5 disputed See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
How much mangrove has the project restored?
  • Standard-setters and registries Verra: "100,000 hectares already restored". Verra
  • Company or project Pollination: 73,000 ha (March 2022). Pollination
  • Company or project Trafigura: More than 75,000 ha (October 2023).
How well did the planted mangroves survive, and did the project cause the national increase in mangrove area?
  • Press and investigations Mongabay interviewees: One put survival at 40–45% initially, rising with restocking; another at 90% including restocking. Mongabay
  • Researchers Hussain & Rahman (2022), via Mongabay: Pakistan's mangrove area grew from 48,331 ha (1986) to 143,930 ha (2020). The figures are national and not attributed to the project. Mongabay
  • Company or project Developer: "Tens of millions" of seedlings planted; 73,000–100,000 ha restored.

A 60-year partnership between the Government of Sindh and Indus Delta Capital restores mangroves in the Indus Delta and sells carbon credits. Reported revenue to the province ranges from $14.7 million to about $50 million, and no community share has been published.

Not disclosedShare of credit revenue reported as reaching communities
No figure for the community share of revenue has been published.

Status As of the latest sources reviewed (January 2025 for revenue; March 2025 for issuance): revenue figures for Sindh remain unreconciled, no independent audit of restoration or survival was found, and no community-share figure is published.

What?
A 60-year partnership between the Government of Sindh and Indus Delta Capital restores mangroves on 350,000 ha in the Indus Delta and sells carbon credits (Verra VCS 2250).
Where?
Indus Delta, Sindh, Pakistan.
When?
Partnership signed 2015; first credit issuance and sales 2022–2023; revenue statements through January 2025.
Who?
Gained
  • Government of Sindh — USD 14.7 million from DBC-1 per Sindh Forest Department filings reported by Dawn; other reported figures are $40 million and about $50 million. Dawn
  • Credit buyers, including Microsoft, Trafigura, Carbon Growth Partners and Respira — Offtake of up to three million credits announced in March 2022, prices not disclosed; Trafigura is described on its website as the anchor off-taker. Pollination
Lost
  • Pakistan — Gave up counting these removals toward its Nationally Determined Contribution through corresponding adjustments.
Harmed
  • Indus Delta mangroves — Upstream dams have reduced freshwater flows and 4 of 8 mangrove species have vanished, according to a person quoted by Mongabay. The sources do not attribute this to the project. Mongabay
Why?
The project's stated purpose is to restore degraded tidal land with mangroves and sell the resulting carbon credits; it says proceeds go to the project, the government and communities.
How?
Mangroves are planted on degraded tidal land under a Verra-registered project; credits are sold to buyers by offtake agreement and auction. Pollination
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Delta Blue Carbon-1 (Verra project VCS 2250; DBC-2 is VCS 5063) is a 60-year public-private partnership between the Government of Sindh and Indus Delta Capital, signed in 2015 and renewable to 100 years. One source lists Pollination as a partner. The project covers 350,000 hectares in the Indus Delta, of which 226,000 hectares of degraded tidal land are for afforestation, reforestation and revegetation. It claims 142 million tonnes of CO2 removed over 60 years. Verra's case study says "100,000 hectares already restored" and gives 600,000 hectares for DBC-1 and DBC-2 together.

In March 2022 Pollination reported an offtake of "up to three million" credits to Carbon Growth Partners, Microsoft, Trafigura and Respira, with prices not disclosed. In November 2022 a Climate Impact X/Respira auction sold 250,000 credits of vintage 2021 at USD 27.80 per tonne, against a reserve of USD 27.50. In August 2023 the Sindh Forest Department said 3.1 million credits were "worth $40 million", with a price range of USD 12–50; the research's own estimate is an average of about USD 12.9 per credit, and Business Recorder reported an average of USD 13. Trafigura's website describes it as the "anchor off-taker". Retirements on the registry include BMO and Commerzbank.

Reported figures for the Sindh government's revenue differ. Dawn reported in May 2023, from Sindh Forest Department filings, USD 14.7 million from DBC-1. NPR described the USD 40 million as going "to the provincial government". In January 2025 Sindh's Chief Minister said the province had earned "about $50 million". The sources opened could not be reconciled with one another. Pakistan's federal Economic Coordination Committee allowed Sindh to sell credits until 2042 with corresponding adjustments and gave Sindh a USD 200–220 million earning envelope, and Pakistan gave up counting these removals toward its Nationally Determined Contribution.

On the ground, the developer reported "tens of millions" of seedlings planted and 73,000–100,000 hectares restored. Other restored-area figures were 73,000 hectares (Pollination, March 2022), more than 75,000 hectares (Trafigura, October 2023) and about 74,000 hectares by the end of 2021 (Mongabay, citing project documents). Independent national satellite figures show Pakistan's mangrove area growing from 48,331 hectares in 1986 to 143,930 hectares in 2020 (Hussain & Rahman 2022, via Mongabay); these are not attributed to the project. Survival rates quoted by Mongabay run from 40–45% initially, rising with restocking, to 90% including restocking. The research found no published independent satellite or survival audit of VCS 2250; Verra audits only. Upstream dams have reduced freshwater flows, and 4 of the delta's 8 mangrove species have vanished, according to a person quoted by Mongabay.

Verra cites 43,000 people in 60 villages and "15,000 jobs"; Dawn reports about 21,000 green jobs. A fisherman in Keti Bandar said his catch had increased and that his family's meals had gone from one to three a day. Polly Hemming of the Australia Institute said the project is "just another form of carbon colonialism". Delta Blue Carbon "declined to respond to a detailed list of questions" and Trafigura "declined to comment", NPR reported on 10 November 2023.

  1. 2015Government of Sindh and Indus Delta Capital sign the 60-year partnership
  2. 2021About 74,000 ha reported restored by the end of the year (Mongabay, citing project documents)
  3. 2022Offtake of up to three million credits announced (March); 250,000 credits auctioned at USD 27.80 (November)
  4. 2023Dawn reports USD 14.7 million to Sindh (May); Sindh Forest Department cites 3.1 million credits worth $40 million (August); Trafigura cites more than 75,000 ha restored (October); NPR reports that the project and Trafigura declined to answer questions (November)
  5. 2025Sindh Chief Minister says the province earned "about $50 million" (January); 6,961,950 blue carbon credits issued worldwide by 15 March, 69% of them in Pakistan

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“it's just another form of carbon colonialism.”

Polly Hemming, Australia Institute · November 2023 · NPR

“100,000 hectares already restored”

Verra case study · undated · Verra

“3.1 million credits… worth $40 million”

Sindh Forest Department · August 2023 · Arab News

“about $50 million”

Sindh Chief Minister, on what Sindh earned · 30 January 2025 · Dawn

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

How much of the credit revenue went to the Sindh government?
Press and investigations
Dawn (May 2023)

USD 14.7 million from DBC-1, from Sindh Forest Department filings.

Dawn
Government and regulators
Sindh Forest Department

"3.1 million credits… worth $40 million".

Arab News
Press and investigations
NPR

Described the USD 40 million as going "to the provincial government".

NPR
Government and regulators
Sindh Chief Minister (January 2025)

Sindh earned "about $50 million".

Dawn
How much mangrove has the project restored?
Standard-setters and registries
Verra

"100,000 hectares already restored".

Verra
Company or project
Pollination

73,000 ha (March 2022).

Pollination
Company or project
Trafigura

More than 75,000 ha (October 2023).

How well did the planted mangroves survive, and did the project cause the national increase in mangrove area?
Press and investigations
Mongabay interviewees

One put survival at 40–45% initially, rising with restocking; another at 90% including restocking.

Mongabay
Researchers
Hussain & Rahman (2022), via Mongabay

Pakistan's mangrove area grew from 48,331 ha (1986) to 143,930 ha (2020). The figures are national and not attributed to the project.

Mongabay
Company or project
Developer

"Tens of millions" of seedlings planted; 73,000–100,000 ha restored.

Is the project a form of carbon colonialism?
Communities and civil society
Polly Hemming, Australia Institute

"it's just another form of carbon colonialism."

NPR
Company or project
Delta Blue Carbon

Declined to respond to a detailed list of questions.

NPR
Company or project
Trafigura

Declined to comment.

NPR

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • A 60-year partnership covering 350,000 ha, claiming 142 million tonnes of CO2 removed over 60 years.
    Delta Blue Carbon project
  • "100,000 hectares already restored"; 43,000 people in 60 villages and "15,000 jobs".
    Verra case study · Verra
  • "Tens of millions" of seedlings planted; 73,000–100,000 ha restored.
    Developer figures
  • The project says proceeds go to the project, the government and communities.
    Delta Blue Carbon project

Recorded

  • Pakistan's mangrove area grew from 48,331 ha (1986) to 143,930 ha (2020), according to independent national satellite figures. The figures are not attributed to the project.
    Mongabay
  • No published independent satellite or survival audit of VCS 2250 was found. Verra audits only.
  • Upstream dams have reduced freshwater flows, and 4 of 8 mangrove species have vanished from the delta, according to a person quoted by Mongabay.
    Mongabay
  • By 15 March 2025, 6,961,950 blue carbon credits had been issued worldwide and 3,651,383 (about 48%) retired; Pakistan holds 69% of issued blue carbon credits. The 2022 VCS price for Pakistan was USD 27.8.
    Farahmand, Hilmi & Duarte, npj Ocean Sustainability
  • Pakistan gave up counting these removals toward its Nationally Determined Contribution through corresponding adjustments.
  • Retirements on the registry include BMO and Commerzbank.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Government of Sindh: DBC-1 revenue per Sindh Forest Department filings reported by Dawn (May 2023)$15m
Other reported figures are $40 million (August 2023, stated value of 3.1 million credits) and about $50 million (Sindh Chief Minister, January 2025). They cannot be reconciled from the sources opened.
Currency: USD · Window: 2022–2025. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • delta-blue-carbon (10 November 2023): Declined to respond to a detailed list of questions. · NPR
  • trafigura (10 November 2023): Declined to comment. · NPR
  • sindh-forest-department (August 2023): Said 3.1 million credits were worth $40 million, with a price range of USD 12–50. · Arab News
  • government-of-sindh (30 January 2025): The Chief Minister said Sindh had earned "about $50 million". · Dawn
  • delta-blue-carbon (undated): The project says proceeds go to the project, the government and communities.

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Independent audit of restoration or survival
None found
Verra audits only
Restored area claimed
73,000–100,000 ha
Developer, Pollination and Verra figures differ
Seedling survival quoted by Mongabay
40–45% to 90%
The higher figure includes restocking
Mangrove species in the delta
4 of 8 vanished
Attributed to reduced freshwater flows from upstream dams

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No independent ecological evaluationKey earnings undisclosed

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: No independent ecological evaluation is on record.
  • Disputed How much mangrove has the project restored?
  • Disputed How well did the planted mangroves survive, and did the project cause the national increase in mangrove area?

Accounts

  • Disputed How much of the credit revenue went to the Sindh government?
  • Disputed Is the project a form of carbon colonialism?
  • None on record Delta Blue Carbon: Declined to respond to a detailed list of questions.
  • None on record Trafigura: Declined to comment.

Record

  • None on record Community share of revenue: no figure has been published.
  • None on record Revenue to Sindh: $14.7 million (Dawn, May 2023), $40 million (Arab News, August 2023) and about $50 million (Sindh Chief Minister, January 2025) cannot be reconciled from the sources opened.
  • Insufficient Revenue split: Earth Journalism Network and the Express Tribune reported 40% to the government and 60% to the private firm; the contract was not seen and the figure is reported but not independently verified. The research's estimate of a developer share of about USD 22–24 million (60% of USD 36.75–40 million) rests on that unverified split.
  • None on record No published independent satellite or survival audit of VCS 2250 was found.
  • Disputed Restored area: figures differ between 73,000 and 100,000 hectares.
  • Not disclosed Prices of the March 2022 offtake were not disclosed.
  • Not disclosed Resale margins are unknown. About 20% of the blue carbon credits that could be traced, market-wide, were bought by resellers whose final price and destination are not disclosed (Farahmand, Hilmi & Duarte 2025).

Did the harm stop?

The sources do not record a point at which any harm stopped; the project and its credit sales are described as continuing to at least 2025.

Who paid?

Credit buyers paid for the credits; Pakistan gave up counting these removals toward its own climate commitment through corresponding adjustments. The community share of revenue has not been published.

Sources

Voices on record: ✓ Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ Standard-setters and registries

Company or project

Press and investigations

Researchers

  1. Blue carbon credit market analysis
    Farahmand, Hilmi & Duarte, npj Ocean Sustainability · 2025

Standard-setters and registries

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Carbon and conservation finance

Buffer pool
A reserve of credits held back from sale by a carbon programme to cover future losses, such as forest burned or logged after credits were issued. It works as the programme's own insurance.
Carbon credit
A certificate representing one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) that a project says it reduced, avoided or removed. Buyers use credits to balance their own emissions in climate claims.
REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.
Retired credit
A credit that has been used to make a climate claim and is permanently removed from circulation in the registry.
Standard-setter and registry
An organisation that writes the rules for carbon credits, approves projects, and records when credits are issued and retired. Such bodies typically charge fees per credit.
Similar cases
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Brazil · 2022
Biomas restoration initiative
Same type: Carbon credits, Tree plantingHarm to nature not measured
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Senegal · 2009–2026
Livelihoods Fund mangrove project (Senegal)
Same type: Carbon credits, Tree plantingHarm to nature disputed
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Netherlands · 2019–2023
Shell nature-based solutions and carbon-neutral driving ads
Same type: Carbon credits, Tree plantingHarm to nature not measured
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Republic of Congo · 2020–2025
TotalEnergies Batéké acacia carbon project (Congo)
Same type: Carbon credits, Tree plantingHarm to nature not measured
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Protected area / relocation · Uganda · 1990–2009
FACE Foundation Mount Elgon carbon forest (Uganda)
Same type: Carbon credits, Tree plantingHarm to nature not measured