Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · Zimbabwe · 2011–2025

Kariba REDD+ project (Zimbabwe)

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Disputed
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 2 none on record · 4 insufficient · 1 not measured · 4 disputed · 2 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Did the credits stand for deforestation that was really avoided?
  • Press and investigations Follow the Money: The project assumed deforestation of 3.2% a year; the control area recorded 1.5% for 2011–2021 and 0.2% now. It put the overestimate at about 27 million tonnes. Follow the Money
  • Company or project South Pole: Its chief executive described Kariba as “one of the most successful forest conservation projects in the world”. REDD-Monitor
  • Company or project South Pole: Vehemently denied knowingly selling worthless credits. swissinfo.ch
  • Standard-setters and registries Verra: Found 15,220,520 of 26,822,953 issued credits to be excess (23 September 2025). Verra
  • Researchers Sylvera and Calyx Global (as reported by Bloomberg, March 2023): Estimated that Kariba credits were inflated five to eight times.

A forest-protection carbon project in Zimbabwe sold about 23 million credits for about €100 million between 2011 and 2022. In September 2025 Verra found that 15.2 million of the 26.8 million credits issued were excess.

1: 8+ estimateDocumented on the ground vs kept by the developer and the marketer
Estimate, 2011–2022, euros. See the ledger.

Status As of the October 2026 research cut-off: Verra's 23 September 2025 review found 15.2 million of 26.8 million issued credits excess, 10.3 million of which were already retired and remain valid; no firm deadline for compensation was set and no court case or penalty is recorded.

What?
A forest-protection project on about 785,000 hectares in northern Zimbabwe sold about 23 million carbon credits for around €100m between 2011 and 2022. Verra later found 15.2 million of the 26.8 million credits issued to be excess. Verra
Where?
Northern Zimbabwe; about 785,000 hectares, as stated by the developer. South Pole
When?
Started 2011; first credits 2013; sales stopped 9 November 2022; suspended by Verra October 2023; excess credits found September 2025.
Who?
Gained
  • South Pole (marketer) — At least €43m of about €100m in credit sales, including at least €18m from buying credits below €0.50 and reselling them above €20 (estimate from reported figures). Follow the Money
  • Carbon Green Investments / Steve Wentzel (developer) — About €57m received, of which about €17m was its own contractual share (estimate). Follow the Money
  • Verra (standard and registry) — Registration levies of about $2.7m (estimate). Follow the Money
  • Credit buyers incl. TotalEnergies, Volkswagen, Gucci, Nestlé — Climate claims based on the credits; 10.3m credits later found excess remain valid for them. Verra
Lost
  • Communities and local councils in the project area — Documented payments of €7.5m or less; local governments received about a quarter of their entitlement in 2021–22. Follow the Money
Harmed
None on record
Why?
Stated purpose: “Saving forests, protecting wildlife, and changing lives” (South Pole, 2019). The investigation found the assumed deforestation rate of 3.2% a year far above the comparison area's 1.5%, later 0.2%. Follow the Money
How?
Credits were issued against a projected deforestation baseline and sold to companies offsetting emissions. The publicly stated split: 25% to South Pole, 30% of the rest to the developer, the remainder to councils, community activities, management and a fund. Follow the Money
In proportion For every €1 documented as reaching the ground, at least €8 stayed with the developer and the marketer (estimate, 2011–2022). Follow the Money
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The Kariba REDD+ project (Verra project 902) is a forest-protection carbon project in Zimbabwe. The developer was Carbon Green Investments (CGI), owned by Steve Wentzel. South Pole, a Swiss firm, was the carbon asset developer and marketer. The project began in 2011 and its first credits were issued in 2013. South Pole's April 2019 factsheet said the project “has protected nearly 785,000 hectares” and listed 85,000 people benefiting. Each credit stood for one tonne of carbon dioxide that would otherwise have been emitted; the project earned credits for deforestation it said it prevented.

Follow the Money reported on 27 January 2023 that about €100 million of credits had been sold between 2011 and 2022, to “hundreds of clients”, at a price that rose from about €1 per credit in 2011 to “well over €20” by 2022. South Pole's chief executive, Renat Heuberger, said the company “only sold 23 million CO₂ tonnes”. Named buyers included TotalEnergies, Volkswagen (at least €10 million), Delta, EY (over €500,000 in September 2022), McKinsey (over €200,000, after the 9 November 2022 sales stop), Gucci, Lidl, Greenchoice (formerly the largest buyer) and Nestlé.

According to Follow the Money, the project assumed deforestation of 3.2% a year; in the control area it was 1.5% for 2011–2021 and was now 0.2%. The outlet put the overestimate at about 27 million tonnes, “almost two-thirds” of the claimed yield. South Pole stopped Kariba sales on 9 November 2022. Follow the Money reported on 26 July 2023 that local governments had received €3.5 million between September 2021 and August 2022, about a quarter of their entitlement; that community expenses were just under €2 million between August 2020 and October 2022; and that spending listed in the five verification reports came to about €200,000, under 1% of the project's revenue in that period.

On 17 October 2023 the project and its issuances were put on hold. On 27 October 2023 South Pole withdrew from the project, saying it was “disappointed with aspects of how the project was managed on the ground by the project owner”. Heuberger resigned in November 2023.

On 23 September 2025 Verra published the findings of its review: 15,220,520 of the 26,822,953 credits issued were excess (an estimated 56.7%). Of the excess credits, 10,321,531 had been retired and remain valid, and 4,898,989 were still active. Verra permanently removed 10,083,263 verified-but-unissued credits and cancelled all 5,049,473 buffer credits. CGI was asked to compensate by cancelling 15.2 million credits. A second review covers trophy hunting, traceability of funds and benefit-sharing. South Pole cancelled the 2.5 million credits it still held; CGI asked for a “moratorium”, and no firm deadline had been set.

  1. 2011Project starts; credits first sold at about €1 each
  2. 2013First credits issued
  3. 2019South Pole factsheet (April): “Saving forests, protecting wildlife, and changing lives”
  4. 2022Price “well over €20”; South Pole stops Kariba sales on 9 November
  5. 2023Follow the Money investigation (27 Jan); Heuberger interview (15 Mar); Follow the Money on spending (26 Jul); project and issuances put on hold (17 Oct); South Pole withdraws (27 Oct); Heuberger resigns (Nov)
  6. 2025Verra review (23 Sep): 15.2m of 26.8m issued credits excess; 10.3m retired credits remain valid; Climate Home News reports (30 Sep)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“Saving forests, protecting wildlife, and changing lives.”

South Pole project factsheet · April 2019 · South Pole

“one of the most successful forest conservation projects in the world”

Renat Heuberger, then chief executive of South Pole, in a radio interview · March 2023 · REDD-Monitor

“we only sold 23 million CO₂ tonnes”

Renat Heuberger, then chief executive of South Pole · March 2023 · REDD-Monitor

“As the carbon consultant, we are not in a position to answer the above questions.”

“I have provided sufficient documentation to show the funds received are accounted for.”

Steve Wentzel, owner of Carbon Green Investments, to Follow the Money · July 2023 · Follow the Money

“simply to ensure that the project didn't go bankrupt”

South Pole, explaining to Follow the Money why it bought credits · 2023 · REDD-Monitor

“we are disappointed with aspects of how the project was managed on the ground by the project owner.”

South Pole exit statement · 27 October 2023 · Argus Media

“There's no paper trail.”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Did the credits stand for deforestation that was really avoided?
Press and investigations
Follow the Money

The project assumed deforestation of 3.2% a year; the control area recorded 1.5% for 2011–2021 and 0.2% now. It put the overestimate at about 27 million tonnes.

Follow the Money
Company or project
South Pole

Its chief executive described Kariba as “one of the most successful forest conservation projects in the world”.

REDD-Monitor
Company or project
South Pole

Vehemently denied knowingly selling worthless credits.

swissinfo.ch
Standard-setters and registries
Verra

Found 15,220,520 of 26,822,953 issued credits to be excess (23 September 2025).

Verra
Researchers
Sylvera and Calyx Global (as reported by Bloomberg, March 2023)

Estimated that Kariba credits were inflated five to eight times.

Did the money reach the project area?
Press and investigations
Follow the Money

Spending listed in the five verification reports was about €200,000, under 1% of the project's revenue in the period; local governments received about a quarter of their entitlement.

Follow the Money
Company or project
Steve Wentzel, owner of Carbon Green Investments

“I have provided sufficient documentation to show the funds received are accounted for.”

Follow the Money
Company or project
South Pole

“As the carbon consultant, we are not in a position to answer the above questions.”

Follow the Money
Why did South Pole buy and resell credits?
Press and investigations
Follow the Money

South Pole earned at least €18 million on top of its 25% commission by buying credits for under €0.50 and reselling them for over €20.

REDD-Monitor
Company or project
South Pole

Acknowledged the purchases and said it bought the credits “simply to ensure that the project didn't go bankrupt”.

REDD-Monitor
Did South Pole keep selling after it knew about the problem?
Press and investigations
Follow the Money and other reporting

Reported that McKinsey bought over €200,000 of credits after the 9 November 2022 sales stop. Journalistic reporting based on internal South Pole documents says the problem was known from June 2022 and sales continued; this was not independently verified.

Follow the Money
Company or project
South Pole

Its chief executive denied the allegations and resigned in November 2023.

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • “Nearly 785,000 hectares” protected
    South Pole factsheet (April 2019) · South Pole
  • 3,000,000 tCO2e mitigated on average annually, 2011–2016
    South Pole factsheet (April 2019) · South Pole
  • 85,000 people benefiting
    South Pole factsheet (April 2019) · South Pole
  • “A giant biodiversity corridor”
    South Pole factsheet (April 2019) · South Pole

Recorded

  • Assumed deforestation 3.2% a year; control area 1.5% in 2011–2021, now 0.2%. Follow the Money gave the overestimate as about 27 million tonnes and as a factor of about 14.
    Follow the Money
  • Contractual split as stated publicly: South Pole 25%; Carbon Green Investments 30% of the remaining 75%; the rest divided into local authorities 40%, community activities 30%, project management 20% and a survival fund 10%.
    Follow the Money
  • Follow the Money, 26 July 2023: 23 receipts (2019–2022) total €192,000; spending listed in the five verification reports totals about €200,000; in 2019–2021, $15,000 went to 46 schools and $9,000 to 17 clinics, while sales in that period exceeded €30 million.
    Follow the Money
  • Kariba was about 10% of South Pole's 2022 revenue of €232 million; sales in 2022 alone were close to half of all-time turnover.
    Follow the Money
  • South Pole acknowledged to Follow the Money that it bought credits for under €0.50 and resold them for over €20; Follow the Money put the margin, on top of South Pole's 25% commission, at at least €18 million.
    REDD-Monitor
  • Verra, 23 September 2025: 15,220,520 of 26,822,953 issued credits excess; 10,321,531 retired and still valid; 4,898,989 still active; 10,083,263 verified-but-unissued credits permanently removed; 5,049,473 buffer credits cancelled; CGI asked to cancel 15.2 million credits.
    Verra
  • Verra board member Anshari Rahman also sat on South Pole's board. No wrongdoing is alleged in the record; the overlap of people between the standard-setter and a developer is noted.
    Verra
  • Verra's board chair, Marc Stuart, is a co-founder of the carbon project developer EcoSecurities.
    Verra
  • Verra's revenue comes from a per-credit fee: $0.20–0.23 per credit, $0.23 since 2025.
    Verra
  • No refund record exists for buyers of the excess credits; those already retired remain valid for the buyers.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

≤ €7.5m
Sum of documented payments to the ground. No figure for ranger, patrol or monitoring spending has been published.
Payments to local governments€3.5m
About a quarter of their entitlement, per Follow the Money.
Community expenses< €2m
Deposit into the Kariba Trust, not verified by bank statements€2m
Half of what was promised.

Gained elsewhere

≥ €60m*
South Pole: share of revenue, incl. at least €18m trading margin estimate≥ €43m
At least 43% of about €100m; Follow the Money wrote “well over 43%”.
Carbon Green Investments: own contractual share estimate€17m
€57m received (South Pole's figure; an earlier figure was €40m) minus €40m owed to third parties. Cross-check: 30% × (€100m − €43m) ≈ €17.1m.
Credits sold, 2011–2022
€100m
Reached the ground
≤ €7.5m
Gained elsewhere
≥ €60m*
For every €1 documented as reaching the ground, at least €8 went to the developer and the marketer. estimate
Currency: EUR · Window: 2011–2022. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • south-pole (July 2023): “As the carbon consultant, we are not in a position to answer the above questions.” · Follow the Money
  • south-pole (2023): Said it bought credits “simply to ensure that the project didn't go bankrupt”. · REDD-Monitor
  • south-pole (27 October 2023): “we are disappointed with aspects of how the project was managed on the ground by the project owner.” · Argus Media
  • south-pole (October 2023): Vehemently denied knowingly selling worthless credits. · swissinfo.ch
  • south-pole (2025): Cancelled the 2.5 million credits it still held. · Climate Home News
  • cgi (July 2023): Wentzel: “I have provided sufficient documentation to show the funds received are accounted for.” · Follow the Money
  • cgi (2025): Asked Verra for a “moratorium” on compensating by cancelling credits. · Climate Home News

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Excess credits
56.7%
15,220,520 of 26,822,953 issued credits (Verra, 23 September 2025; the percentage is an estimate)
Assumed vs observed deforestation
3.2% vs 1.5%
Per year; control area now 0.2% (Follow the Money, 27 January 2023)
Retired excess credits still valid
10.3m
10,321,531 credits already retired by buyers remain valid (Verra, 2025)
Independent ecological evaluation
None
Verra's second review covers funds and benefit-sharing

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court caseUnder standard-setter reviewKey earnings undisclosedNo independent ecological evaluation

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: No independent ecological evaluation is on record.
  • Disputed Did the credits stand for deforestation that was really avoided?

Court

Accounts

  • Disputed Did the money reach the project area?
  • Disputed Why did South Pole buy and resell credits?
  • Disputed Did South Pole keep selling after it knew about the problem?

Record

  • Insufficient How much of the €40m owed to third parties reached them: Wentzel's documents cover less than a quarter.
  • Insufficient The €2m deposit into the Kariba Trust in 2021 was not verified by bank statements.
  • Unclear Spending on rangers, patrols or monitoring: no figure published.
  • Unclear Whether the excess credits already retired by buyers will be compensated: no firm deadline set; CGI asked for a “moratorium”.
  • None on record No court case or penalty is recorded; the review was carried out by the standard-setter.
  • Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: a €30m planned community share (South Pole's claim); a 42% share of revenue for South Pole (Follow the Money wrote “well over 43%”); a community share of 28% (a secondary figure); payments to a Guernsey account; internal South Pole analysis, known from journalistic documents, with no independent verification.
  • Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: BP's 2009 minority stake in South Pole and the stake of Temasek's GenZero.

Did the harm stop?

Sales stopped on 9 November 2022, eleven years after the project began. Credits already retired by buyers remain valid.

Who paid?

Local governments and communities in the project area, whose documented share was a small fraction of revenue; buyers hold credits that Verra later found excess.

Sources

Voices on record: ✓ Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers✓ Standard-setters and registries

Company or project

  1. Kariba project factsheet
    South Pole · 2019-04

Press and investigations

  1. The South Pole Kariba carbon emission
    Follow the Money · 2023-01-27
  4. South Pole pulls plug on Kariba
    Argus Media · 2023-10-27

Communities and civil society

  2. "I probably will go to jail," says Steve Wentzel
    REDD-Monitor (summary of The New Yorker) · 2023-10

Standard-setters and registries

  4. Marc Stuart, Verra board
    Verra · undated

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Carbon and conservation finance

Baseline
The projected scenario of what would have happened without a project, such as an expected rate of deforestation. Credits are issued for the difference between the baseline and what actually happened, so an inflated baseline produces more credits.
Buffer pool
A reserve of credits held back from sale by a carbon programme to cover future losses, such as forest burned or logged after credits were issued. It works as the programme's own insurance.
Carbon credit
A certificate representing one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) that a project says it reduced, avoided or removed. Buyers use credits to balance their own emissions in climate claims.
Excess credits
Credits issued beyond the amount that a later review found to be justified.
Offset
Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.
REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.
Retired credit
A credit that has been used to make a climate claim and is permanently removed from circulation in the registry.
Standard-setter and registry
An organisation that writes the rules for carbon credits, approves projects, and records when credits are issued and retired. Such bodies typically charge fees per credit.

Science and environment

Groundwater
Water held underground in soil and rock, drawn through wells.
Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Bonds and banking

Delaware, Guernsey, Cayman Islands
Jurisdictions widely used to register companies, funds and accounts for legal, confidentiality and tax reasons.
Liquidation, insolvency, bankruptcy
Legal processes that apply when a company cannot pay its debts; its assets are sold and claims against it may go unpaid.