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Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · United States · 2020

Wildfires have consumed almost 40% of California's forest offset buffer pool

Short record: the main facts, with sources. A full case file has not been prepared.

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 5 none on record · 1 not disclosed · 1 not measured See the gaps

CarbonPlan estimates that wildfire has consumed almost 40% of the buffer pool behind California's forest carbon offsets, against 20% allocated for fire over 100 years. The state's Air Resources Board replaces burned credits from the pool, and buyers are not charged.

What?
Wildfires have consumed almost 40% of the buffer pool behind California's forest carbon offsets, according to CarbonPlan's 2025 estimate. CarbonPlan
Where?
California, United States CarbonPlan
When?
From 2020; latest update September 2025 CarbonPlan
Who?
Gained
  • Microsoft — Bought about 240,000 to 265,000 credits from Klamath East and West in 2020 and 2021 (figures differ) Inside Climate News
  • Green Diamond — Linked to the Klamath East credits that Microsoft bought Inside Climate News
Lost
  • California's buffer pool — Almost 40% consumed by wildfire, per CarbonPlan's 2025 estimate CarbonPlan
Harmed
None on record
Why?
Not stated in the sources reviewed.
How?
Burned credits are replaced from the buffer pool, and buyers are not charged CarbonPlan
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

A 2022 study in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change reported that wildfire losses of 5.7 to 6.8 million credits were at least 95 percent of the 100-year fire allocation.

CarbonPlan's September 2025 update estimated that wildfire had consumed almost 40% of the buffer pool, against 20% allocated for fire over 100 years.

CarbonPlan's 2022 explainer describes systematic over-crediting in California forest offset credits.

Microsoft bought about 240,000 to 265,000 credits from the Klamath East and West schemes in 2020 and 2021, according to Inside Climate News, though sources differ on the figure.

    In court and with insurers

    Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

    Lawsuits and rulings

    No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

    Insurers

    No insurer decision on record.

    What we don't know

    Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

    Nature

    • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

    Record

    • None on record Verra's undated statement gives an AFOLU buffer of 41,768,355 units; the sources do not say whether this includes California.
    • None on record Verra's 2021 consultation said cancellations 'may be inadequate'; an insurance or fund-based cover pilot was in place as of December 2025.
    • Not disclosed Warm Springs has not disclosed its post-fire carbon stock after about 60 months; the rules require disclosure within 23 months.
    • None on record Reported without a source: the Air Resources Board retired 1.12 million tonnes for two earlier fires against a reserve of about 6 million tonnes.
    • None on record Reported without a source: reversals for 2020 and 2021 at 3.95 million tonnes, or about 7.6 million including the Lionshead and Bootleg fires.
    • None on record The sources do not say what the shortfall would cost buyers or the atmosphere.

    Did the harm stop?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Who paid?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Sources

    Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

    Press and investigations

    1. Klamath East and Microsoft credits
      Inside Climate News · 2021-04-08

    Communities and civil society

    Researchers

    1. California's forest carbon offsets buffer pool is severely undercapitalized
      Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · 2022-08-05

    Connected cases

    Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
    Terms used on this page

    Carbon and conservation finance

    Buffer pool
    A reserve of credits held back from sale by a carbon programme to cover future losses, such as forest burned or logged after credits were issued. It works as the programme's own insurance.
    Carbon credit
    A certificate representing one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) that a project says it reduced, avoided or removed. Buyers use credits to balance their own emissions in climate claims.
    Offset
    Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.
    REDD+
    Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.
    Retired credit
    A credit that has been used to make a climate claim and is permanently removed from circulation in the registry.
    Standard-setter and registry
    An organisation that writes the rules for carbon credits, approves projects, and records when credits are issued and retired. Such bodies typically charge fees per credit.