Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Water use · Chad · 1960–2021

Lake Chad: the 90% shrinkage figure, the Transaqua water-transfer plan and a proposed USD 50bn Lake Chad Fund

Nature's voice · report
My open-water area was about 25,000 km2 in the 1960s and under 2,000 km2 in the 1980s, according to Pham-Duc et al. (2020).
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
  • Between 2001 and 2018 my extent was stable overall, with a decline in my northern pool; my surface water extent was about 5,800 km2 at its maximum in 2001-2002 and about 1,800 km2 at its minimum in 2010, and my groundwater has been increasing since the 2000s. Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
  • According to the FAO (2009), fish production around me was down 60% and pastureland was degraded, with no period given. FAO
  • French scientists warn that a transfer could cause irreversible environmental damage in both basins, and cite a lack of reliable data. The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
What the record lacks: 4 none on record · 1 not disclosed · 6 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Did Lake Chad shrink by 90%, and is it still shrinking?
  • International bodies FAO (2009): The lake shrank by about 90%, from about 25,000 km2 in 1963 to under 1,500 km2 in 2001, and could disappear in about twenty years. FAO
  • Researchers Pham-Duc et al. (2020): The 90% decrease falls between the 1960s (25,000 km2) and the 1980s (under 2,000 km2); the extent has been stable over the last two decades, with a maximum of about 5,800 km2 in 2001-2002 and a minimum of about 1,800 km2 in 2010. Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
How much did human water use contribute to the decline?
  • International bodies FAO (2009): Named climatic variability, climate change, population pressure, over-use of water and land, and reduced Chari-Logone inflow as causes. FAO
  • Researchers Pham-Duc et al. (2020): Extraction in the 1980s-1990s was probably overestimated; water abstracted for human activities was negligible compared with the change in lake volume; the large loss was drought-driven. Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
Should water be transferred from the Ubangi basin?
  • Government and regulators Congo Basin heads of state and LCBC and CICOS states (Abuja Declaration, 2018): Endorsed the Inter Basin Water Transfer as a 'win-win project' and committed to realising it for energy, roads, navigation and irrigation. LCBC / UNESCO and heads of state
  • Government and regulators DR Congo: Opposes the project and says it was given no real role in discussions, as reported by The Conversation. The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
  • Researchers French scientists, as reported by The Conversation: Warn of possible irreversible environmental damage in both basins and cite a lack of reliable data. The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
  • Researchers Horace Campbell, University of Ghana, as reported by The Conversation: Argues that community resilience depends on replenishing the lake. The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
  • Researchers Géraud Magrin (CIRAD), 2013 seminar: Put forward the hypothesis that the disappearance narrative serves heterogeneous interests, legitimises a transfer project and allows the capture of a new 'environmental rent' from climate-compensation finance; described Western donors (World Bank, EU, France, GEF) as against the transfer and the AfDB and FAO as more favourable; observed that LCBC planning documents do not mention the transfer while institutional meetings do. Université Paris Nanterre, Séminaire Hydrosystèmes et Hydropolitiques (Géraud Magrin)

The FAO reported in 2009 that Lake Chad had shrunk by about 90% since 1963; a 2020 satellite study found its extent stable over the previous two decades, with the large loss falling between the 1960s and the 1980s. A transfer of water from the Congo/Ubangi basin and a Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn were proposed in the lake's name.

About 25,000 km2 (1960s) to under 2,000 km2 (1980s)Lake Chad open-water area
Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports, 2020; the same study found the extent stable over the two decades to 2018. The FAO in 2009 gave under 1,500 km2 in 2001.

Status As of June 2021: Transaqua described as at planning and feasibility stage; no record of the Lake Chad Fund being established.

What?
The FAO reported a shrinkage of about 90% in Lake Chad in 2009; a 2020 satellite study found the lake's extent stable since about 2000 and placed the large loss between the 1960s and the 1980s. A water transfer from the Ubangi basin (Transaqua and variants) and a Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn were proposed in the lake's name. FAO
Where?
Lake Chad, shared by Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria; the proposed transfer would draw water from the Ubangi basin of the Congo system. The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
When?
Decline between the 1960s and 1980s; FAO release in 2009; Abuja Declaration in February 2018; project at planning and feasibility stage in June 2021. Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
Who?
Gained
None on record
Lost
None on record
Harmed
  • Fishing and pastoral livelihoods around the lake — The FAO reported fish production down 60% and degraded pastureland, with no period given. FAO
Why?
The transfer was proposed to restore the lake's water supply; the Abuja Declaration also lists energy, roads, navigation and irrigation as purposes. LCBC / UNESCO and heads of state
How?
A transfer of water from the Ubangi to Lake Chad (Transaqua and variants), with a Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn to be facilitated by the African Development Bank. LCBC / UNESCO and heads of state
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Lake Chad is shared by Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. Pham-Duc et al. (Scientific Reports, March 2020) put its open-water area at about 25,000 km2 in the 1960s and under 2,000 km2 in the 1980s, a decrease of more than 90% that they describe as drought-driven. Using a multi-satellite approach they found that the lake's extent 'has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool'. Surface water extent was at its maximum in 2001-2002 (about 5,800 km2) and its minimum in 2010 (about 1,800 km2), and then slowly increased; groundwater, about 70% of the annual water storage change, has been increasing since the 2000s.

On 15 October 2009 the FAO stated that the lake had shrunk by about 90%, from about 25,000 km2 in 1963 to under 1,500 km2 in 2001, and cited NASA climate forecasts that it could disappear in about twenty years. It named climatic variability, climate change, population pressure, over-use of water and land, and reduced Chari-Logone inflow as causes, and reported that fish production was down 60% and pastureland degraded, without giving a period. Pham-Duc et al. wrote that recent studies showed water extraction in the 1980s-1990s was probably overestimated, and that water abstracted for human activities was negligible compared with the change in lake volume.

The Transaqua scheme, an inter-basin transfer from the Congo/Ubangi (Oubangui) basin to Lake Chad, was first conceived in 1982 by the Italian firm Bonifica, according to The Conversation. A feasibility study commissioned by the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) from CIMA International proposed transferring 3.4 km3 of water from the Ubangi for USD 6.7bn, as summarised from a 2013 seminar by Géraud Magrin (CIRAD). PowerChina and the LCBC were reported to have signed an agreement on feasibility studies on 13 December 2016, and in 2017 PowerChina agreed to work with Bonifica. Nagabhatla and Sayan put the cost of Transaqua at around USD 50bn and wrote on 22 June 2021 that the project was still 'in the planning and feasibility study stage'.

At the International Conference on Lake Chad in Abuja, held by the LCBC and UNESCO on 26-28 February 2018, the Abuja Declaration stated that Congo Basin heads of state 'endorsed the Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) as a win-win project', that LCBC and CICOS states committed to realising it for energy, roads, navigation and irrigation, and that the African Union endorsed it as a Pan-African project. It also stated: 'The African Development Bank to facilitate the creation of the Lake Chad Fund of about $50 billion' to fund Lake Chad and other Pan-African engineering projects. The signature blocks in the declaration text are for Niger, Nigeria, Chad, the Central African Republic, Gabon, Cameroon, Angola, Libya and the African Union Commission; the DR Congo does not appear and the signing date line is blank. The Conversation reports that the DR Congo opposes the project and says it was given no real role in discussions.

At the Berlin High-Level Conference on the Lake Chad Region on 3-4 September 2018, according to UN News, about USD 2.17bn in support and about USD 467 million in concessional loans were announced for Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. The article names climate change as one driver of the crisis; the outcomes it lists include no lake restoration measure.

  1. 1960Open-water area about 25,000 km2 (1960s); under 2,000 km2 by the 1980s
  2. 1982Transaqua first conceived by Bonifica (as reported)
  3. 2001Surface water extent at its maximum, about 5,800 km2 (2001-2002), according to Pham-Duc et al.; the FAO gave under 1,500 km2 for 2001
  4. 2009FAO release on the 'tragic disappearance' of Lake Chad (15 Oct)
  5. 2010Surface water extent at its minimum, about 1,800 km2
  6. 2013Magrin seminar summarising the CIMA study: 3.4 km3 for USD 6.7bn (26 Nov)
  7. 2016PowerChina and LCBC agreement on feasibility studies (13 Dec, as reported)
  8. 2018Abuja Declaration proposes a Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn (26-28 Feb); Berlin conference (3-4 Sep)
  9. 2020Pham-Duc et al. publish: extent stable over two decades (26 Mar)
  10. 2021Transaqua described as in the planning and feasibility study stage (22 Jun)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“The tragic disappearance of Lake Chad has to be stopped”

FAO · 15 October 2009 · FAO

“over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking”

“endorsed the Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) as a win-win project”

“The African Development Bank to facilitate the creation of the Lake Chad Fund of about $50 billion”

“in the planning and feasibility study stage”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Did Lake Chad shrink by 90%, and is it still shrinking?
International bodies
FAO (2009)

The lake shrank by about 90%, from about 25,000 km2 in 1963 to under 1,500 km2 in 2001, and could disappear in about twenty years.

FAO
Researchers
Pham-Duc et al. (2020)

The 90% decrease falls between the 1960s (25,000 km2) and the 1980s (under 2,000 km2); the extent has been stable over the last two decades, with a maximum of about 5,800 km2 in 2001-2002 and a minimum of about 1,800 km2 in 2010.

Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
How much did human water use contribute to the decline?
International bodies
FAO (2009)

Named climatic variability, climate change, population pressure, over-use of water and land, and reduced Chari-Logone inflow as causes.

FAO
Researchers
Pham-Duc et al. (2020)

Extraction in the 1980s-1990s was probably overestimated; water abstracted for human activities was negligible compared with the change in lake volume; the large loss was drought-driven.

Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10
Should water be transferred from the Ubangi basin?
Government and regulators
Congo Basin heads of state and LCBC and CICOS states (Abuja Declaration, 2018)

Endorsed the Inter Basin Water Transfer as a 'win-win project' and committed to realising it for energy, roads, navigation and irrigation.

LCBC / UNESCO and heads of state
Government and regulators
DR Congo

Opposes the project and says it was given no real role in discussions, as reported by The Conversation.

The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
Researchers
French scientists, as reported by The Conversation

Warn of possible irreversible environmental damage in both basins and cite a lack of reliable data.

The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
Researchers
Horace Campbell, University of Ghana, as reported by The Conversation

Argues that community resilience depends on replenishing the lake.

The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
Researchers
Géraud Magrin (CIRAD), 2013 seminar

Put forward the hypothesis that the disappearance narrative serves heterogeneous interests, legitimises a transfer project and allows the capture of a new 'environmental rent' from climate-compensation finance; described Western donors (World Bank, EU, France, GEF) as against the transfer and the AfDB and FAO as more favourable; observed that LCBC planning documents do not mention the transfer while institutional meetings do.

Université Paris Nanterre, Séminaire Hydrosystèmes et Hydropolitiques (Géraud Magrin)
What would the transfer cost?
Researchers
CIMA International study for the LCBC, as summarised by Magrin

USD 6.7bn for 3.4 km3 from the Ubangi.

Université Paris Nanterre, Séminaire Hydrosystèmes et Hydropolitiques (Géraud Magrin)
Researchers
Nagabhatla and Sayan, The Conversation (2021)

Around USD 50bn for Transaqua.

The Conversation (Nagabhatla, Sayan)
Government and regulators
Abuja Declaration (2018)

A Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn, to fund Lake Chad and other Pan-African engineering projects.

LCBC / UNESCO and heads of state

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • FAO, 15 October 2009: the lake shrank by about 90% from 1963 to 2001 and could disappear in about twenty years.
  • Abuja Declaration, February 2018: the Inter Basin Water Transfer described as a 'win-win project' and a Lake Chad Fund of about USD 50bn.
  • Berlin conference, September 2018: about USD 2.17bn in support announced for Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria.

Recorded

  • Pham-Duc et al. (2020): extent stable over the last two decades; the 90% decrease falls between the 1960s and the 1980s.
  • FAO (2009): fish production down 60%; pastureland degraded (no period given).
  • Cost estimates for the transfer: USD 6.7bn for 3.4 km3 (CIMA, via Magrin's 2013 seminar); around USD 50bn for Transaqua (Nagabhatla and Sayan, 2021).
  • Transaqua remained at planning and feasibility stage in June 2021 (Nagabhatla and Sayan).
  • The outcomes UN News lists for the Berlin conference include no lake restoration measure.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
Lake Chad Fund proposed in the Abuja Declaration (to be facilitated by the AfDB)≈ $50bn
Proposed, 2018; to fund Lake Chad and other Pan-African engineering projects.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
CIMA scheme: transfer of 3.4 km3 from the Ubangi$6.7bn
As summarised from a 2013 seminar by Géraud Magrin.
Transaqua cost estimate (Nagabhatla and Sayan, 2021)$50bn
Window: 2021
Berlin conference, September 2018: support announced for Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria≈ $2.2bn
Window: 2018
Berlin conference, September 2018: concessional loans≈ $467m
Window: 2018
Currency: USD · Window: Mixed - see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Open-water area
25,000 km2 to under 2,000 km2
1960s to 1980s (Pham-Duc et al., 2020)
Extent since 2000
Stable
Two decades to 2018, with a decline in the northern pool; groundwater rising
Proposed Lake Chad Fund
About USD 50bn
Abuja Declaration, 2018
Proposed transfer
3.4 km3 for USD 6.7bn
CIMA study, via Magrin's 2013 seminar

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court case

Nature

  • Disputed Did Lake Chad shrink by 90%, and is it still shrinking?
  • Disputed How much did human water use contribute to the decline?
  • Disputed Should water be transferred from the Ubangi basin?

Court

Accounts

Record

  • Disputed Figures differ: the cost of the transfer is given as USD 6.7bn for 3.4 km3 (CIMA study) and as around USD 50bn (The Conversation, 2021); an earlier Bonifica estimate of nearly USD 14bn has also been reported.
  • Disputed Figures differ: a 2018 message attributed to the UN Secretary-General gives a fall from 22,000 to 1,350 km2, against about 25,000 km2 in the 1960s in Pham-Duc et al.
  • None on record None on record: establishment of the Lake Chad Fund after its proposal in the 2018 Abuja Declaration.
  • Unclear Unclear: whether a reported EUR 1.5 million Italian grant for the Transaqua feasibility study (memorandum reported for 16 October 2018) was paid, or whether the feasibility study was started or completed.
  • Not disclosed Not disclosed: the value of the PowerChina agreement with the LCBC.
  • None on record None on record: a lake restoration measure among the outcomes UN News lists for the Berlin conference of September 2018.
  • None on record None on record: court proceedings or insurance claims.

Did the harm stop?

The decline fell between the 1960s and the 1980s; Pham-Duc et al. found the lake's extent stable from about 2000 to 2018, with a decline in its northern pool.

Who paid?

None on record: no transfer works or fund disbursements are recorded; Transaqua was at planning and feasibility stage in June 2021.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

Government and regulators

Press and investigations

Researchers

  1. The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change
    Pham-Duc et al., Scientific Reports 10 · 2020-03-26
  3. La disparition du lac Tchad: où mène la Political ecology ? (The disappearance of Lake Chad: where does political ecology lead?), seminar summary
    Université Paris Nanterre, Séminaire Hydrosystèmes et Hydropolitiques (Géraud Magrin) · 2013-11-26

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Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Groundwater
Water held underground in soil and rock, drawn through wells.

Carbon and conservation finance

REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.
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