Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · United Arab Emirates · 2011–2025

McKinsey advice to COP28 presidency and fossil clients

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Disputed
What the record lacks: 3 none on record · 2 insufficient · 1 not measured · 3 disputed See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Did McKinsey's REDD+ cost curves make future deforestation look larger so that it could later be counted as avoided?
  • Communities and civil society Greenpeace (2011): The curves were used to justify industrial expansion in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Congo and Guyana; the Indonesia projection assumed conversion of 11–15 million hectares for pulp and palm oil. Greenpeace says the Guyana plan allows 20 times more logging.
  • Company or project McKinsey: The criticism was taken out of context; the firm stood behind its work and said more than 25 countries used the curves.
  • Government and regulators Environment minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Said the country had adopted McKinsey's scenarios.

McKinsey gave free advice to the COP28 climate summit presidency in 2023, whose president also ran the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, while oil and mining companies were among its clients. The firm also drew up forest-carbon cost curves for forest countries and is a founding member of a carbon-removal buyers' club.

59McKinsey staff registered at COP28 (official participant list)
On the same list: KPMG 64, EY 60, PwC 51, Deloitte 47, BCG 19. December 2023.

Status As of October 2026: a Massachusetts court ordered McKinsey to produce documents on its work for Exxon in April 2025 and the case was ongoing; McKinsey and the COP28 presidency dispute the characterisation of the COP28 work.

What?
McKinsey advised the COP28 presidency without charge while serving oil and mining clients, drew up REDD+ cost curves for forest countries, and is a founding member of the carbon-removal buyers' club Frontier.
Where?
United Arab Emirates (COP28, Dubai); Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guyana; Zimbabwe (Kariba credits); Massachusetts, United States.
When?
Cost curves 2009–2011; internal analysis 2021; Kariba purchases after 9 November 2022; COP28 advice reported October 2023; Massachusetts order 9 April 2025.
Who?
Gained
None on record
Lost
None on record
Harmed
  • Forests in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guyana — Greenpeace (2011) alleged the cost curves were used to justify industrial expansion, including conversion of 11–15 million hectares in Indonesia; McKinsey said the criticism was taken out of context.
Why?
McKinsey says sustainability is a critical priority for it and that withdrawing from fossil-fuel sectors would do nothing to solve the climate problem.
How?
Free advice to the COP28 presidency; REDD+ cost curves for forest countries with the data kept closed as intellectual property; a founding seat in Frontier.
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

In 2023 McKinsey gave free advice to the presidency of the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates. The COP28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, was at the same time chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). AFP reported on a draft “energy transition narrative” that cut oil use by only 50% by 2050 and foresaw $2.7 trillion a year of new oil and gas investment. McKinsey's clients were named as including ExxonMobil, Aramco, Chevron, BP, Drax and Rio Tinto. McKinsey and the COP28 presidency dispute this characterisation, and McKinsey's COP28 documents have not been published independently.

In 2011 Greenpeace's report “Bad Influence” criticised the greenhouse-gas abatement cost curves that McKinsey had prepared for forest countries, including Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guyana, under REDD+, the UN mechanism that pays countries for avoiding deforestation. Greenpeace wrote that the curves were used to justify industrial expansion; the Indonesia projection assumed the conversion of 11–15 million hectares of forest for pulp and palm oil, which let future deforestation be shown as high and then counted as “avoided”. McKinsey said the criticism was taken out of context and stood behind its work. The Congo's environment minister said the country had adopted McKinsey's scenarios, and McKinsey said more than 25 countries used the curves. McKinsey kept the underlying data closed, citing intellectual property.

McKinsey Sustainability is a founding member of Frontier, a buyers' club for carbon removal whose other founding members include Stripe, Alphabet, Shopify and Meta. Members commit at least $10 million and pay an annual fee of 0.5–2%; Frontier negotiates one price for all buyers, vets suppliers and accepts deliveries. Its first deal, in May 2023, was with Charm Industrial for 112,000 tonnes for $53 million. McKinsey was also named among buyers of credits from the Kariba carbon project in Zimbabwe, buying more than €200,000 after the developer's sales stop on 9 November 2022. A December 2023 analysis by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey projected that a biodiversity-credit market worth about $8 million would reach $2 billion by 2030 and $69 billion by 2050.

McKinsey's own 2021 internal analysis, reported by the Centre for Climate Reporting and the Guardian in November 2024, found that its client portfolio was likely on a path to 3 to 5 degrees of warming and included more than half of the world's worst polluters; senior partners did not advance the work. More than 1,100 employees signed a letter in 2021 asking the firm to follow its own advice. On 9 April 2025 a Massachusetts court ordered the production of documents on McKinsey's 2017 risk assessment and 2019 sustainability framework work for Exxon and rejected a confidentiality objection; the case was ongoing.

Biographies on conservation organisations' websites list former McKinsey partners among their directors, including African Parks and the Rainforest Alliance. A WWF-US biography says one director spent more than 20 years at McKinsey, and another WWF-US director joined Goldman Sachs from McKinsey.

  1. 2011Greenpeace publishes “Bad Influence” on McKinsey's REDD+ cost curves for Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Congo and Guyana
  2. 2021McKinsey internal analysis of client emissions; more than 1,100 employees sign a letter
  3. 20229 November: Kariba project sales stop; McKinsey is later named as buying more than €200,000 of credits
  4. 2023May: Frontier signs its first deal. October: AFP reports McKinsey's free advice to the COP28 presidency. November: leaked briefing notes on ADNOC deals. December: COP28 decision; WEF–McKinsey biodiversity-credit forecast
  5. 202421 November: Centre for Climate Reporting and the Guardian publish the 2021 internal analysis
  6. 20259 April: Massachusetts court orders production of McKinsey documents on work for Exxon

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Did McKinsey's free advice to the COP28 presidency involve a conflict of interest?
Press and investigations
AFP

McKinsey gave free advice to a presidency headed by ADNOC's chief executive; a source told AFP the conflict of interest was clear from the start.

Company or project
McKinsey

Sustainability is a critical priority for it, and withdrawing from fossil-fuel sectors would do nothing to solve the climate problem.

Government and regulators
COP28 presidency

Disputes the characterisation of McKinsey's advice (wording not in the record).

Government and regulators
ADNOC

No response to the leaked briefing notes on oil and gas deals is in the record.

Business & Human Rights Resource Centre
Did McKinsey's REDD+ cost curves make future deforestation look larger so that it could later be counted as avoided?
Communities and civil society
Greenpeace (2011)

The curves were used to justify industrial expansion in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Congo and Guyana; the Indonesia projection assumed conversion of 11–15 million hectares for pulp and palm oil. Greenpeace says the Guyana plan allows 20 times more logging.

Company or project
McKinsey

The criticism was taken out of context; the firm stood behind its work and said more than 25 countries used the curves.

Government and regulators
Environment minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Said the country had adopted McKinsey's scenarios.

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • McKinsey says sustainability is a critical priority for it and that withdrawing from fossil-fuel sectors would do nothing to solve the climate problem.
    McKinsey
  • The World Economic Forum and McKinsey projected that the biodiversity-credit market would reach $2 billion by 2030 and $69 billion by 2050 (optimistic case: $180 billion).
    World Economic Forum and McKinsey, December 2023

Recorded

  • McKinsey gave free advice to the COP28 presidency, whose president was also chief executive of ADNOC (AFP).
  • A draft “energy transition narrative” seen by AFP cut oil use by only 50% by 2050 and foresaw $2.7 trillion a year of new oil and gas investment.
  • COP28's president, Sultan Al Jaber, was also ADNOC's chief executive; leaked briefing notes from November 2023 held talking points for oil and gas deals with at least 15 governments (BBC).
    Business & Human Rights Resource Centre
  • McKinsey registered 59 people at COP28, against 64 for KPMG, 60 for EY, 51 for PwC, 47 for Deloitte and 19 for BCG (official participant list).
  • McKinsey was named among buyers of Kariba credits (more than €200,000), after the 9 November 2022 sales stop.
    Climate Home News
  • McKinsey's 2021 internal analysis found its client portfolio likely on a path to 3 to 5 degrees of warming; more than 1,100 employees signed a letter.
    Centre for Climate Reporting / Guardian
  • On 9 April 2025 a Massachusetts court ordered production of documents on McKinsey's 2017 risk assessment and 2019 sustainability framework work for Exxon, rejecting a confidentiality objection; the case was ongoing.
  • Greenpeace says the McKinsey-assisted Guyana plan allows 20 times more logging and that the Congo plan envisages 10 million hectares of additional logging concessions.
  • Board biography of an African Parks director lists her as a former McKinsey partner.
    African Parks
  • Board biography of a Rainforest Alliance director lists her as a partner at Dalberg and formerly at McKinsey.
    Rainforest Alliance
  • COP28 adopted decision 1/CMA.5 in December 2023, which included language on moving away from fossil fuels; it also encouraged carbon-capture technologies and left room for “transitional fuels”.
    UNFCCC
  • Voluntary biodiversity-credit sales were at most $1.85 million to date, against the forecast of a $2 billion market by 2030.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: · Window: . All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • McKinsey (2011; 2023): Has said sustainability is a critical priority for it and that withdrawing from fossil-fuel sectors would do nothing to solve the climate problem; says Greenpeace's criticism of its cost curves was taken out of context; stood behind the work.
  • McKinsey and the COP28 presidency (2023): Dispute the characterisation of the advice to the presidency.
  • ADNOC (November 2023): No response to the leaked briefing notes is in the record. · Business & Human Rights Resource Centre

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

  1. 2025-04-09Ongoing
    Massachusetts court order for McKinsey documents on work for Exxon
    Massachusetts court (not identified in the record) · Civil · Not identified in the record → McKinsey (ordered to produce documents); Exxon was the client

    On 9 April 2025 the court ordered the production of documents on McKinsey's 2017 risk assessment and 2019 sustainability framework work for Exxon, and rejected a confidentiality objection. The case was ongoing.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Greenpeace on the Guyana plan
20x
Greenpeace says the McKinsey-assisted plan allows 20 times more logging
Greenpeace on the Congo plan
10 Mha
Additional logging concessions the plan envisages, according to Greenpeace
Independent review of McKinsey's REDD+ data
Closed
McKinsey kept the data closed, citing intellectual property

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Case pending / contestedKey earnings undisclosed

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
  • Disputed Did McKinsey's REDD+ cost curves make future deforestation look larger so that it could later be counted as avoided?

Figures

  • Insufficient Oil barrels per day 2050: Scenario reported in one source for the COP28 advice; not independently verified.

Accounts

  • Disputed Did McKinsey's free advice to the COP28 presidency involve a conflict of interest?
  • None on record ADNOC: No response to the leaked briefing notes on oil and gas deals is in the record.

Record

  • None on record Who paid for McKinsey's REDD+ work in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Congo and Guyana, and how much: not found.
  • None on record McKinsey's COP28 documents have not been published independently; the firm and the COP28 presidency dispute the characterisation of the work.
  • Insufficient A scenario of 40–50 million barrels of oil per day in 2050 is reported in one source but was not independently verified.
  • Disputed Figures for biodiversity-credit sales conflict: at most $1.85 million to date in one record, and about $5.6 million in 2024 in a report that could not be verified.

Did the harm stop?

No end is recorded: the Massachusetts case was ongoing at the latest record, and no independent review of McKinsey's REDD+ data was found.

Who paid?

Not established in the record: who paid McKinsey for its REDD+ work was not found, and its COP28 advice was reported as unpaid.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers✓ International bodies

Press and investigations

  1. McKinsey client emissions
    Centre for Climate Reporting / Guardian · 2024-11-21

Communities and civil society

  2. Sonila Cook, board member profile
    Rainforest Alliance ·

International bodies

  1. Decision 1/CMA.5
    UNFCCC · 2023-12

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Carbon and conservation finance

REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Law and courts

Arbitration
A private dispute process in which an appointed arbitrator, instead of a court, decides the case.
Plea
In a criminal case, the defendant's formal answer to a charge. A plea agreement settles a case with a guilty plea on agreed terms.
Punitive damages
Money a court orders a defendant to pay to punish especially reckless conduct, on top of compensation for losses. Mainly used in US courts.
Similar cases
Carbon credits · European Union · 2016–2025
Used cooking oil and POME biofuel certification fraud (ISCC, EU/UK)
Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionCourt: ongoing
Carbon credits · Protected area / relocation · Kenya · 2012–2026
Northern Kenya Grasslands Carbon Project and the Isiolo court ruling
Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionHarm to nature disputed
Carbon credits · Peru · 2008–2026
Cordillera Azul National Park carbon project
Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionCourt: ongoing
Carbon credits · Tree planting · Pakistan · 2015–2025
Delta Blue Carbon mangrove project (Pakistan)
Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionHarm to nature disputed