Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 30 — For every dollar the world invests in protecting or restoring nature, thirty dollars are spent on activities that degrade it. (UNEP, State of Finance for Nature 2026)
Cases / Water use · Kazakhstan · 2025–2026

Kazakhstan's funding for Caspian level research and the Japan-funded UNDP monitoring initiative (2025–2026)

Nature's voice · report
1.1 billion KZT were budgeted in my name. No one has measured what reached me.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Details not on record: 3 none on record · 1 insufficient · 2 not measured · 1 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps

In August 2025 and February 2026 Kazakhstan's government allocated 305 million tenge and 1.1 billion tenge from its reserve to the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, and in May 2026 UNDP and Japan announced a US$3 million initiative, launched in Aktau on 5 October 2026, to improve monitoring in the northern Caspian. President Tokayev called in September 2025 for an intergovernmental programme; no source reviewed measures an effect on the sea level.

1.1 billion tengeGovernment reserve allocation to the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, February 2026
Kapital.kz, 24 February 2026; an earlier allocation of 305 million tenge was reported on 13 August 2025 and a US$3 million Japan-funded UNDP initiative on 25 May 2026.

Status As of October 2026: the institute received reserve funds in August 2025 and February 2026; the UNDP-Japan initiative was launched on 5 October 2026; no budget for the interstate programme or action plan and no measured effect appear in the sources reviewed.

What?
Kazakhstan allocated 305 million tenge and 1.1 billion tenge from its reserve to its Caspian research institute, and Japan and UNDP began a US$3 million monitoring initiative in the northern Caspian. Kapital.kz
Where?
Kazakhstan, with the northern Caspian as the focus; the initiative was launched in Aktau. The Times of Central Asia
When?
Allocations in August 2025 and February 2026; UNDP-Japan initiative announced 25 May 2026 and launched 5 October 2026. The Times of Central Asia
Who?
Gained
  • Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea — Received 305 million tenge (2025) and 1.1 billion tenge (2026) for development, equipment and laboratories Kapital.kz
  • UNDP in Kazakhstan — Implements the Japan-funded initiative; its fees or costs are not on record The Times of Central Asia
Lost
None on record
Harmed
Why?
Kazakhstan's ministers cited the continuing fall in sea level and its effect on the ecosystem; the Deputy Minister of Ecology spoke of a level approaching minus 33 metres by 2050. Kapital.kz
How?
Funds from the government reserve by decree of the Prime Minister; a Japanese grant implemented by UNDP. Interfax-Kazakhstan
6 of 6 questions (what, who, where, when, why, how) have an answer on record

What happened

The record, in order.

The Times of Central Asia reported on 9 June 2025, summarising an Energyprom.kz review, that the Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea was non-operational, that repairs, equipment and staffing required 1.8 billion tenge (the article also gives $3.5 million), that the Ministry of Finance had rejected the allocation and that a new request had gone to the government reserve fund. On 13 August 2025 Interfax-Kazakhstan reported that the government approved 305 million tenge from reserve funds for the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, by a decree signed by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. The Astana Times reported in January 2026 that the institute had been operating since September. On 24 February 2026 Kapital.kz reported a further 1.1 billion tenge from the government reserve, by a decree signed by Prime Minister Bektenov, for marine monitoring equipment and for the institute's hydrobiological and hydrochemical laboratories; Deputy Minister of Ecology Mansur Oshurbayev was reported as saying the level was on a steady downward trend toward 2050 and could approach minus 33 metres.

On 1 August 2025 24.kz reported that Kazakhstan planned to obtain funds from international financial institutions, not named, for an automated Caspian level monitoring system costing 6 million 200 thousand dollars, with sensors in Atyrau and Mangystau regions, presented at the eighth session of the Asian Inter-Parliamentary Advisory Water Council in Bishkek. No award was found. On 8 September 2025 President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in his annual address that "the need to develop an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea has matured" and proposed a specialised international organisation for the Caspian. At a COP30 side event reported on 19 November 2025, Deputy Minister Oshurbayev presented an Interstate Programme for conserving Caspian water resources, whose preparation began on the President's initiative, and a Caspian Sea Water Level Fluctuations Action Plan for 2025–2035 that was still in preparation; the report gives no financial figures.

On 25 May 2026 Kapital.kz reported that UNDP in Kazakhstan and the Government of Japan would allocate US$3 million to improve monitoring of the sea, water management and cooperation among Caspian states, with a focus on the northern Caspian; Vice Minister of Ecology Mansur Oshurbayev and Vice Minister of Water Resources Aslan Abdraimov were quoted. The Times of Central Asia reported that the initiative, funded by Japan and implemented by UNDP, was launched in Aktau on 5 October 2026 and would assess Kazakhstan's northern Caspian observation network and identify where new monitoring sites and equipment were needed. The Astana Times reported that Minister of Ecology Alibek Kuantyrov called the Caspian "a vital part of the country's environmental, social and economic development" and that Japan's ambassador, Yasumasa Iijima, said the project would focus on two main areas, including a platform to strengthen cooperation. No source reviewed gives the initiative's duration or budget breakdown, or any measurement of an effect on the level, which Court et al. (2025) cite as falling by approximately 75 cm in 2022–2024.

  1. 2025Times of Central Asia reports the institute non-operational and a 1.8 billion tenge request refused by the Ministry of Finance (9 June, reported from Energyprom.kz)
  2. 2025Government approves 305 million tenge from the reserve for the institute (13 August)
  3. 2025Tokayev calls for an intergovernmental programme to preserve the Caspian (8 September)
  4. 2025Interstate Programme and Action Plan 2025–2035 (in preparation) presented at a COP30 side event (reported 19 November)
  5. 20261.1 billion tenge allocated from the reserve for marine monitoring equipment and laboratories (24 February)
  6. 2026UNDP and Japan announce a US$3 million initiative (25 May); launched in Aktau on 5 October

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“the need to develop an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea has matured.”

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, annual address, as reported by the Times of Central Asia · 8 September 2025 · The Times of Central Asia

“For Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea is a vital part of the country's environmental, social and economic development,”

Alibek Kuantyrov, Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources · 5 October 2026 · The Astana Times

“The project will focus on two main areas: establishing a platform to strengthen cooperation among the Caspian littoral states, and advancing scientific monitoring, transboundary data exchange, dialogue and joint action.”

Yasumasa Iijima, Japanese Ambassador to Kazakhstan, as reported by the Astana Times · 5 October 2026 · The Astana Times

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Funding and status of the Kazakh Caspian research institute
Press and investigations
Times of Central Asia (9 June 2025, reporting Energyprom.kz)

The institute was non-operational for lack of funding; repairs, equipment and staffing required 1.8 billion tenge; the Ministry of Finance rejected the allocation and a new request went to the reserve fund.

The Times of Central Asia
Government and regulators
Government press service, as reported by Interfax-Kazakhstan and Kapital.kz

305 million tenge (August 2025) and 1.1 billion tenge (February 2026) were allocated from the reserve for the institute's development and for monitoring equipment and laboratories.

Kapital.kz
Press and investigations
Astana Times (10 January 2026)

The Caspian Sea Research Institute has been operating since September.

The Astana Times

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • Funds described as earmarked for marine monitoring equipment so the institute can monitor directly on the sea, supporting a presidential instruction on studying and preserving the Caspian.
    Government press service, as reported by Kapital.kz · Kapital.kz
  • The UNDP-Japan initiative described as improving monitoring, water resource management and cooperation among Caspian states.
    UNDP and Japan, as reported by Kapital.kz · Kapital.kz

Recorded

  • 305 million tenge from the government reserve for the institute (Prime Minister's decree, reported 13 August 2025).
    Interfax-Kazakhstan
  • 1.1 billion tenge from the government reserve for marine monitoring equipment and laboratories (reported 24 February 2026).
    Kapital.kz
  • US$3 million for the UNDP-Japan initiative, launched in Aktau on 5 October 2026.
    The Times of Central Asia
  • Kazakhstan sought funds from unnamed international financial institutions for an automated level monitoring system costing 6 million 200 thousand dollars; no award was found.
    24.kz
  • No budget or financing for the Interstate Programme or the 2025–2035 Action Plan appears in the sources reviewed.
    Inbusiness.kz

In nature's name

What was promised in nature's name, the money that moved, and what was measured.

Promised

  • “the need to develop an intergovernmental program to preserve the Caspian Sea has matured.” — President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, annual address, as reported by the Times of Central Asia (8 September 2025) The Times of Central Asia
  • “The project will focus on two main areas: establishing a platform to strengthen cooperation among the Caspian littoral states, and advancing scientific monitoring, transboundary data exchange, dialogue and joint action.” — Yasumasa Iijima, Japanese Ambassador to Kazakhstan, as reported by the Astana Times (5 October 2026) The Astana Times

Money moved in nature's name

WhatKindAmountPeriod
Government reserve allocation to the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea (August 2025) (reported 13 August 2025; purpose not stated on the page read)
Government of Kazakhstan (reserve fund)
Interfax-Kazakhstan		Budget305m KZT2025
Government reserve allocation for Caspian study and conservation: marine monitoring equipment and laboratories (February 2026) (1.1 billion tenge; reported 24 February 2026)
Government of Kazakhstan (reserve fund)
Kapital.kz		Budget1.1bn KZT2026
UNDP-Japan initiative for monitoring and cooperation in the northern Caspian (US$3 million; launched in Aktau on 5 October 2026)
Government of Japan, implemented by UNDP
Kapital.kz		Pledged$3m2026

Benefit to nature: what was measured

Not measured

No source reviewed measures an effect of the reserve-fund allocations or the UNDP-Japan initiative on the Caspian level or ecosystems; the initiative was launched on 5 October 2026 to assess and improve monitoring, and the level kept falling in 2025–2026 according to the sources reviewed. The amounts and purposes are those of the government press service and the funders, not an independent evaluation.

Level fall, 2022–2024
approximately 75 cm
CASPCOM as cited by Court et al. (2025), before most of the funding University of Leeds / White Rose Research Online
UNDP-Japan initiative
launched 5 October 2026
No result reported yet The Times of Central Asia

Operation Ongoing · UNDP-Japan initiative launched on 5 October 2026; Action Plan 2025–2035 in preparation as of November 2025. The Times of Central Asia

Findings on record

  • Peer-reviewed study Prange, Wilke and Wesselingh, Communications Earth & Environment (2020-12-23) · The other side of sea level change: “Assessment of risks and vulnerability of the Caspian region's ecosystem, economies, and social systems to Caspian sea level decline are largely absent.” University of Bremen (author copy)
  • Own admission President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, annual address, as reported by the Times of Central Asia (2025-09-08) · Annual address on water-use culture: “big problems here” The Times of Central Asia

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: KZT · Window: 2025–2026. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources (Kazakhstan) (November 2025; May and October 2026): Vice Minister Mansur Oshurbayev said the continuing fall in sea level has a complex effect on the ecosystem and presented the Interstate Programme at COP30; Minister Alibek Kuantyrov called the Caspian vital to the country's environmental, social and economic development. · Kapital.kz
  • Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (Kazakhstan) (25 May 2026): Vice Minister Aslan Abdraimov said the processes require timely and coordinated solutions. · Kapital.kz
  • Ministry of Finance (Kazakhstan) (June 2025): Reported by the Times of Central Asia to have rejected a 1.8 billion tenge allocation for the institute; no statement of the ministry was found. · The Times of Central Asia
  • Government of Japan (5 October 2026): Funds the US$3 million initiative; Ambassador Iijima said Japan brings know-how in water management, disaster risk reduction and environmental protection. · The Astana Times

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Level fall, 2022–2024 (before most of the funding)
approximately 75 cm
CASPCOM as cited by Court et al. (2025)
Effect of the funded monitoring on the level
not measured
The initiative was launched on 5 October 2026

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Benefit not measuredOwn admissionPeer-reviewed finding

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

Accounts

  • Disputed Funding and status of the Kazakh Caspian research institute

Record

  • None on record None on record in the sources reviewed: how the 305 million tenge was spent, beyond a statement of funds for the institute's development; the Interfax-Kazakhstan page gives no purpose.
  • None on record None on record in the sources reviewed: the duration and budget breakdown of the UNDP-Japan initiative, or the share of the US$3 million spent on monitoring equipment.
  • None on record None on record in the sources reviewed: any budget for the Interstate Programme or the Caspian Sea Water Level Fluctuations Action Plan 2025–2035.
  • Not measured Not measured: any effect of the funded measures on the Caspian Sea level or on Caspian ecosystems; no evaluation was found.
  • Unclear Unclear: whether the 1.8 billion tenge requested for the institute (Times of Central Asia, June 2025) and the 305 million and 1.1 billion tenge allocated later are connected; the sources do not say.
  • Insufficient Unconfirmed: the 6.2 million dollar monitoring system sought from international financial institutions (24.kz).

Did the harm stop?

The sources reviewed give no evidence that the decline has stopped; the funding and monitoring were announced between August 2025 and October 2026 while the level kept falling.

Who paid?

The Government of Kazakhstan paid 305 million tenge and 1.1 billion tenge from its reserve; Japan funds the US$3 million initiative implemented by UNDP, per the Times of Central Asia.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

Press and investigations

Researchers

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Law and courts

Arbitration
A private dispute process in which an appointed arbitrator, instead of a court, decides the case.
Trustees (natural resource)
Government agencies that act on behalf of the public to recover and spend damages for harm to natural resources.
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