Ili River and Lake Balkhash: inflow from China, Kapshagay releases and a French-funded master plan
- The Ili supplies about 80% of my water, according to Times of Central Asia. Times of Central Asia
- My level rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025, a rise of 32 cm, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. Kapital.kz
- Research by the Jamestown Foundation says China was blocking 40% of my river's inflow as of 2021, as cited by Times of Central Asia. Times of Central Asia
Kazakhstan receives much of Lake Balkhash's water through the Ili River, which enters from China, and manages releases from the Kapshagay reservoir to keep the lake's level up. A water-allocation agreement with China is in draft, and a EUR 1.35 million French grant funds a master plan for the lake.
A rise of 32 cm in the Baltic system, according to the Ministry of Water Resources as reported by Kapital.kz on 17 July 2025.
Status As of June 2026: master-plan working group met in Astana, completion due by end-2026; no signed water-allocation agreement with China (as of July 2025).
- Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation — Receives the EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant for the master plan Kapital.kz
- Lake Balkhash — Gradually drying up in recent years, partly because the Ili's flow has declined; level up 32 cm in the first half of 2025 Times of Central Asia
What happened
The Ili River supplies about 80% of Lake Balkhash's water according to Times of Central Asia. It enters Kazakhstan from China, which has diverted the river for about 50 years for hydropower and irrigation; research by the Jamestown Foundation, cited by Times of Central Asia, says China was blocking 40% of the river's inflow as of 2021. Times of Central Asia writes that Balkhash has been gradually drying up in recent years, partly because the Ili's flow has declined.
On 19 August 2024 the Ministry of Water Resources said it was drafting a water-allocation agreement with China and had sent more than 12 billion cubic metres of water to the lake since the start of the year. The Kapshagay reservoir was filled to 100% in 2024 for the first time in 10 years, and again in 2025. In the first half of 2025, 8.52 bn m³ was released to Balkhash (8 bn m³ in the first half of 2024), against a plan of 12 bn m³ for 2025.
The lake's level rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025, a rise of 32 cm. As of July 2025 there was no signed Kazakhstan–China water-allocation agreement; a draft intergovernmental agreement was being developed.
In December 2024, at the One Water Summit in Riyadh, a grant agreement was signed under which the French Development Agency (AFD) gives EUR 1.35 mln to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation for the preservation of Lake Balkhash; the agreement was signed for Kazakhstan by First Vice-Minister Bolat Bekniyaz, and BRGM of France is the technical partner. On 11 June 2026 the master-plan working group met in Astana; the plan is due to be completed by the end of 2026.
- 2024Ministry of Water Resources says it is drafting the allocation agreement and has sent more than 12 bn m³ to the lake since January (19 Aug); Kapshagay reservoir filled to 100% for the first time in 10 years; AFD grant agreement signed (December)
- 2025Kapshagay reservoir filled again; lake level up 32 cm in the first half of the year (17 Jul); no signed allocation agreement with China
- 2026Master-plan working group meets in Astana (11 Jun); completion due by the end of 2026
What was said
“Since the beginning of this year, more than 12 billion cubic meters of water have been sent to the lake.”
“optimisation of the Kapshagay reservoir's operating regime to stabilise the level of Lake Balkhash”
How it looked
Shown
- More than 12 bn m³ of water was reported sent to the lake since the start of 2024, with an allocation agreement with China being drafted.Ministry of Water Resources · Times of Central Asia
- A lake-level rise of 32 cm in the first half of 2025 was reported.Ministry of Water Resources, as reported by Kapital.kz · Kapital.kz
Recorded
- Lake level (Baltic system) rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025.
- The Kapshagay reservoir was filled to 100% in 2024 for the first time in 10 years and again in 2025.
- Releases to Balkhash: 8.52 bn m³ in the first half of 2025 and 8 bn m³ in the first half of 2024; plan for 2025: 12 bn m³.
- The AFD grant is EUR 1.35 mln to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, signed by First Vice-Minister Bolat Bekniyaz; BRGM (France) is the technical partner.
- No signed Kazakhstan–China water-allocation agreement as of July 2025; a draft intergovernmental agreement is being developed.
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- kz-ministry-of-water-resources (19 August 2024): Said it was drafting a water-allocation agreement with China and had sent more than 12 bn m³ of water to the lake since the start of 2024. · Times of Central Asia
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Court
- None on record No court case on record.
Record
- Disputed Figures differ: Times of Central Asia gives the Ili's share of Balkhash's water as about 80%; other reports give about 70%.
- Unclear Unclear: the 40% upstream-blocking figure is a think-tank estimate (Jamestown Foundation, cited by Times of Central Asia); no government figure is cited alongside it.
- None on record None on record: a master-plan budget beyond the EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant.
- None on record None on record: a binding Kazakhstan–China water-allocation treaty.
- None on record None on record: funding amounts in the Bizmedia.kz report of 11 June 2026 on the master plan.
Did the harm stop?
None on record.
Who paid?
The master plan is funded by a EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant. None on record: who bears the cost of the Kapshagay releases.
Sources
Press and investigations
- Kazakhstan and China in Talks on Feeding Lake BalkhashTimes of Central Asia · 2024-08-20
- Balkhash level up 32 cm since the start of the year (in Russian)Kapital.kz · 2025-07-17
- France to grant EUR 1.35 mln to preserve Balkhash (in Russian)Kapital.kz · 2024-12-04
- France helps develop a plan to save Lake Balkhash (in Russian)Bizmedia.kz · 2026-06-11
Connected cases
- China is building a mega dam in Tibet, upstream of India and Bangladesh China · 2024
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: Building the dam, per Radio Free Asia
- China's natural forest logging ban and the shift of timber imports China · 1998–2014
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: introduced the 1998 logging restrictions and the natural-forest logging ban
- Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test China · 2007–2026
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: State that conducted the test
- Fukushima treated water discharge and Chinese seafood ban Japan · 2023–2025
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: Banned Japanese seafood imports
- Human Rights Watch reports about 930,000 relocated in Tibet for ecological protection China · 2024
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: authority that carried out the relocations, as reported
- Mangrove restoration failures (Sri Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, Sundarbans) Sri Lanka / Philippines / Indonesia / India · 2005–2022
- Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) (Public authority) — here: French technical partner; there: Indonesian agency announcing restoration targets met
- Mekong upstream dams and the decline of Tonle Sap flow reversal Cambodia · 1962–2026
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: Operator of the upper Mekong (Lancang) dams; rejected the 2019 low-flow attribution
- Non-peer-reviewed study links China's 1958 sparrow campaign to famine deaths China · 1958–1960
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: ran the Four Pests campaign
- Olkaria geothermal projects (Kenya) Kenya · 2013–2017
- French Development Agency (Public authority) — here: Funds the Balkhash master plan with a EUR 1.35 mln grant; there: Financier
- World Bank-backed dams displaced people, and reviews found incomes often not restored Global · 1985–2018
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: Host government for the Three Gorges dam
- Yangtze ten-year fishing ban China · 2020–2030
- Government of China (Government) — here: Upstream state on the Ili; counterpart in the draft agreement; there: Regulator; ban and compensation