Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Water use · Kazakhstan · 2024–2026

Ili River and Lake Balkhash: inflow from China, Kapshagay releases and a French-funded master plan

Nature's voice · report
I have been gradually drying up in recent years, partly because the Ili's flow has declined, according to Times of Central Asia.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record.
Recorded
  • The Ili supplies about 80% of my water, according to Times of Central Asia. Times of Central Asia
  • My level rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025, a rise of 32 cm, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. Kapital.kz
  • Research by the Jamestown Foundation says China was blocking 40% of my river's inflow as of 2021, as cited by Times of Central Asia. Times of Central Asia
What the record lacks: 4 none on record · 1 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps

Kazakhstan receives much of Lake Balkhash's water through the Ili River, which enters from China, and manages releases from the Kapshagay reservoir to keep the lake's level up. A water-allocation agreement with China is in draft, and a EUR 1.35 million French grant funds a master plan for the lake.

341.55 m → 341.87 mLake Balkhash level, first half of 2025
A rise of 32 cm in the Baltic system, according to the Ministry of Water Resources as reported by Kapital.kz on 17 July 2025.

Status As of June 2026: master-plan working group met in Astana, completion due by end-2026; no signed water-allocation agreement with China (as of July 2025).

What?
Kazakhstan relies on the Ili River from China for much of Lake Balkhash's water, manages Kapshagay releases to keep the lake up, and is drafting a water-allocation agreement with China; a EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant funds a master plan. Times of Central Asia
Where?
Ili River (entering from Xinjiang, China), Kapshagay reservoir, the Ili delta and Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan, about 280 km northwest of Almaty. Times of Central Asia
When?
Upstream diversion for about 50 years; releases and level data for 2024–2025; AFD grant signed December 2024; working group 11 June 2026. Times of Central Asia
Who?
Gained
  • Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation — Receives the EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant for the master plan Kapital.kz
Lost
None on record
Harmed
  • Lake Balkhash — Gradually drying up in recent years, partly because the Ili's flow has declined; level up 32 cm in the first half of 2025 Times of Central Asia
Why?
Upstream China has diverted the Ili for about 50 years for hydropower and irrigation, according to Times of Central Asia. Times of Central Asia
How?
Kapshagay reservoir releases are managed to keep the lake's level up while a water-allocation agreement is drafted. Kapital.kz
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The Ili River supplies about 80% of Lake Balkhash's water according to Times of Central Asia. It enters Kazakhstan from China, which has diverted the river for about 50 years for hydropower and irrigation; research by the Jamestown Foundation, cited by Times of Central Asia, says China was blocking 40% of the river's inflow as of 2021. Times of Central Asia writes that Balkhash has been gradually drying up in recent years, partly because the Ili's flow has declined.

On 19 August 2024 the Ministry of Water Resources said it was drafting a water-allocation agreement with China and had sent more than 12 billion cubic metres of water to the lake since the start of the year. The Kapshagay reservoir was filled to 100% in 2024 for the first time in 10 years, and again in 2025. In the first half of 2025, 8.52 bn m³ was released to Balkhash (8 bn m³ in the first half of 2024), against a plan of 12 bn m³ for 2025.

The lake's level rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025, a rise of 32 cm. As of July 2025 there was no signed Kazakhstan–China water-allocation agreement; a draft intergovernmental agreement was being developed.

In December 2024, at the One Water Summit in Riyadh, a grant agreement was signed under which the French Development Agency (AFD) gives EUR 1.35 mln to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation for the preservation of Lake Balkhash; the agreement was signed for Kazakhstan by First Vice-Minister Bolat Bekniyaz, and BRGM of France is the technical partner. On 11 June 2026 the master-plan working group met in Astana; the plan is due to be completed by the end of 2026.

  1. 2024Ministry of Water Resources says it is drafting the allocation agreement and has sent more than 12 bn m³ to the lake since January (19 Aug); Kapshagay reservoir filled to 100% for the first time in 10 years; AFD grant agreement signed (December)
  2. 2025Kapshagay reservoir filled again; lake level up 32 cm in the first half of the year (17 Jul); no signed allocation agreement with China
  3. 2026Master-plan working group meets in Astana (11 Jun); completion due by the end of 2026

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“Since the beginning of this year, more than 12 billion cubic meters of water have been sent to the lake.”

“optimisation of the Kapshagay reservoir's operating regime to stabilise the level of Lake Balkhash”

Aim of the AFD grant, as reported by Kapital.kz · 4 December 2024 · translated from Russian · Kapital.kz

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • More than 12 bn m³ of water was reported sent to the lake since the start of 2024, with an allocation agreement with China being drafted.
    Ministry of Water Resources · Times of Central Asia
  • A lake-level rise of 32 cm in the first half of 2025 was reported.
    Ministry of Water Resources, as reported by Kapital.kz · Kapital.kz

Recorded

  • Lake level (Baltic system) rose from 341.55 m to 341.87 m in the first half of 2025.
    Kapital.kz
  • The Kapshagay reservoir was filled to 100% in 2024 for the first time in 10 years and again in 2025.
    Kapital.kz
  • Releases to Balkhash: 8.52 bn m³ in the first half of 2025 and 8 bn m³ in the first half of 2024; plan for 2025: 12 bn m³.
    Kapital.kz
  • The AFD grant is EUR 1.35 mln to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, signed by First Vice-Minister Bolat Bekniyaz; BRGM (France) is the technical partner.
    Kapital.kz
  • No signed Kazakhstan–China water-allocation agreement as of July 2025; a draft intergovernmental agreement is being developed.
    Kapital.kz

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

—
AFD grant to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation for the Balkhash master plan€1.35m

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Reached the ground
—
Currency: EUR · Window: 2024–2026. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • kz-ministry-of-water-resources (19 August 2024): Said it was drafting a water-allocation agreement with China and had sent more than 12 bn m³ of water to the lake since the start of 2024. · Times of Central Asia

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Lake level, first half of 2025
+32 cm
341.55 m → 341.87 m (Baltic system)
Ili share of Balkhash's water
about 80%
Times of Central Asia
Upstream inflow blocked, 2021
40%
Jamestown Foundation estimate, cited by Times of Central Asia
Releases from Kapshagay, first half of 2025
8.52 bn m³
Plan for 2025: 12 bn m³

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court case

Court

Record

  • Disputed Figures differ: Times of Central Asia gives the Ili's share of Balkhash's water as about 80%; other reports give about 70%.
  • Unclear Unclear: the 40% upstream-blocking figure is a think-tank estimate (Jamestown Foundation, cited by Times of Central Asia); no government figure is cited alongside it.
  • None on record None on record: a master-plan budget beyond the EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant.
  • None on record None on record: a binding Kazakhstan–China water-allocation treaty.
  • None on record None on record: funding amounts in the Bizmedia.kz report of 11 June 2026 on the master plan.

Did the harm stop?

None on record.

Who paid?

The master plan is funded by a EUR 1.35 mln AFD grant. None on record: who bears the cost of the Kapshagay releases.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society— Researchers

Press and investigations

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Similar cases
Wind, hydro and other renewables · Water use · China · 2018–2020
China small hydropower closures, Yangtze Economic Belt
Same type: Water useSame country
Water use · Kazakhstan · 2005–2026
North Aral Sea restoration via Kokaral dam (Kazakhstan)
Same type: Water useSame country
Water use · Agriculture, livestock and food · Turkmenistan · 1954–2026
Garagum Canal and Amu Darya: conveyance losses, salinisation and the money around them
Same type: Water useSame country
Oil, gas and coal operations · Waste management · Water use · Kazakhstan · 2024–2025
Mangistaumunaigas fines for wastewater injection, drilling waste and furnace emissions (Mangystau, 2024)
Same type: Water useSame country
Water use · Oil, gas and coal operations · Caspian Sea (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) · 2020–2025
Caspian seal mass deaths, 2020–2025
Same type: Water useSame country
Water use · China · 2021–2022
China's ecology-oriented development pilots fund restoration with land revenue
Same type: Water useSame country