Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Tree planting · China · 1978–2026

China's Three-North Shelterbelt Programme ("Green Great Wall"), 1978 to 2050

Nature's voice · report
Stated as the total cost in a Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation commissioned by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration; the report gives about 13.5 billion US dollars 93.3 billion yuan were spent in my name. The measurements of what reached me differ.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Accounts differ ↓
What the record lacks: 2 none on record · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 1 disputed · 2 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Whether the programme has controlled desertification and delivered lasting tree cover
  • Government and regulators Chinese government (Xinhua): Forest coverage in programme areas rose from 5.05% (1978) to 13.84% (2023); 67.82 percent of treatable desertified land was reported under control in 2026. Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
  • Researchers Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2025): Forest coverage up 92% and erosion down 61% for 1978-2022, but only 10% of farmland effectively protected, sand-fixing forests less effective than expected and a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests in dieback. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Researchers Cao et al. (2011), as reported by Yale Environment 360: "Attempts to control desertification and soil erosion by afforestation have had little success." Yale Environment 360
  • Researchers Wang et al. (2020): Vegetation gains in the eastern and central parts attributed mainly to restoration efforts; many planted trees with low survival rates. Oak Ridge National Laboratory publication record
  • Researchers Deng et al. (2024): A composite index of 2001-2020 rose from 1.000 to 3.584 and the overall evaluation was positive. Forest and Grassland Resources Research (Chinese journal)

China's state afforestation programme, launched in 1978 and scheduled to run to 2050, reports forest coverage in its area rising from 5.05% in 1978 to 13.84% in 2023. Peer-reviewed assessments report both gains and problems: a 2025 study found only 10% of farmland effectively sheltered and a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests in dieback, and earlier studies reported low survival of planted trees.

5.05% to 13.84%Forest coverage in the programme area, 1978 and 2023 (official figures)
Xinhua, 6 June 2024; the figures are the Chinese government's own. A 2025 peer-reviewed assessment reports a 92% rise in forest coverage for 1978-2022 and also dieback in a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests.

Status As of August 2026: the programme is ongoing under a 2050 completion date; Xinhua reports 88.9 billion yuan invested since 2023; peer-reviewed assessments report both forest-cover gains and dieback; no national survival audit is on record; a Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation puts the 1978-2018 cost at 93.3 billion yuan.

What?
A state afforestation programme to plant shelterbelts and forests across northwest, north and northeast China, run since 1978 with a planned completion in 2050. Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
Where?
13 provincial-level regions of northwest, north and northeast China; the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang is encircled by a 3,046 km green belt. Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
When?
Launched 1978; scheduled for completion in 2050; central funds announced for 2024; 88.9 billion yuan reported invested since 2023. Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
Who?
Gained
Lost
None on record
Harmed
Why?
Initiated in 1978 to combat desertification in northwest, north and northeast China (Xinhua, 2026); the UN platform lists a forest-cover aim of 14.95%. Ghana News Agency, carrying Xinhua
How?
Central budget funds, provincial projects and nursery bases (287 projects and 58 nursery bases in 2024); a critical-phase push began in 2023. People's Government of Henan Province, carrying Xinhua
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Programme, also called the Green Great Wall, was launched in China in 1978 and is scheduled for completion in 2050, according to Xinhua (6 June 2024). Xinhua reported that afforestation under the programme had expanded by 32 million hectares since 1978 and that forest coverage in the programme areas rose from 5.05% in 1978 to 13.84% in 2023, with a projected coverage by 2050 of over 4 million square km across 13 provincial-level regions. The United Nations SDG Partnerships platform lists the programme's stated aim as "increasing the forest cover from 5.05% to 14.95% in the area" and describes a 72-year development plan in three stages; the page names a department of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs as the listed entity and gives no budget figure.

Xinhua reported that on 3 June 2024 China announced a special fund of 12 billion yuan (about 1.69 billion US dollars, as Xinhua states) from that year's central budget to support the programme. Xinhua reported on 6 February 2025 that the programme received a 32 billion yuan injection in 2024, which supported 287 projects and 58 nursery bases, and that China planted 4.45 million hectares of trees in 2024. On 17 August 2026 Xinhua reported that, since a critical-phase push began in 2023, 88.9 billion yuan (about 13.1 billion US dollars) had been invested and 544 key projects launched, and that "Forest and grassland coverage in the program area has reached 40.76 percent", a figure that combines forest and grassland and is not comparable with the forest-only figures. Xinhua reported on 28 November 2024 that the Taklimakan Desert was completely encircled by a sand-blocking green belt stretching 3,046 km, with a final stretch of about 285 km planted that day. People's Daily Online reported on 25 December 2018 that a Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation, commissioned by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, put the total cost of planting an accumulated 46 million hectares of forest in the Three-North areas over 40 years at 93.3 billion yuan (about 13.5 billion US dollars). No source reviewed gives a total spent since 2018.

A 2025 assessment led by the Institute of Applied Ecology (IAE) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, published in SCIENCE CHINA: Life Sciences, covered 1978-2022. It reported that forest coverage in the region rose 92% and overall forest quality improved 21%, that shelterbelts raised crop yields by 4-10%, that soil erosion from water flow fell 61%, and that the programme stored an estimated 1.96 petagrams of carbon. The same assessment reported that "Only 10% of farmland is effectively protected by shelterbelts", that sand-fixing forests were less effective against desertification than expected, that "a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests are experiencing dieback", and that regional water storage was declining, with afforestation accounting for about 8% of the decline.

Earlier peer-reviewed work reported problems with survival and effect. Wang and colleagues (Land Degradation and Development, 2020) used satellite vegetation data over about three decades; they found vegetation gains in the eastern and central parts of the region, which they attributed mainly to ecological restoration efforts, and reported that many planted trees had low survival rates. Yale Environment 360 (17 January 2012) reported that Cao and five co-authors concluded in Earth Science Reviews (2011) that "Attempts to control desertification and soil erosion by afforestation have had little success", and that surveys cited in that analysis found as many as 85 percent of plantings fail over time. A 2024 index-based evaluation of 2001-2020 in the Chinese journal Forest and Grassland Resources Research rated the programme's overall evaluation as positive.

  1. 1978Programme launched; scheduled for completion in 2050
  2. 2011Cao and co-authors publish an Earth Science Reviews analysis of afforestation in China's arid and semi-arid regions (as reported by Yale Environment 360)
  3. 2020Wang et al. publish a satellite study of vegetation change in the programme region (Land Degradation and Development, 15 April)
  4. 2023Forest coverage in the programme areas reported at 13.84%; critical-phase push begins
  5. 2024Central special fund of 12 billion yuan announced (3 June); 32 billion yuan injection reported for the year; Taklimakan belt reported complete (28 November)
  6. 2025IAE assessment of 1978-2022 published in SCIENCE CHINA: Life Sciences (page dated 27 February)
  7. 2026Xinhua reports 88.9 billion yuan invested and 544 key projects since 2023 (17 August)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“increasing the forest cover from 5.05% to 14.95% in the area”

“complete by and large the development of the ecological security shelterbelt in north China by 2020”

“Only 10% of farmland is effectively protected by shelterbelts”

“Attempts to control desertification and soil erosion by afforestation have had little success.”

Shixiong Cao (Beijing Forestry University) and five co-authors, Earth Science Reviews, as quoted by Yale Environment 360 · 2011; reported 17 January 2012 · Yale Environment 360

“fairy tale”

Jiang Gaoming, ecologist, Chinese Academy of Sciences, on the programme, as quoted by Yale Environment 360 · 17 January 2012 · Yale Environment 360

“Forest and grassland coverage in the program area has reached 40.76 percent.”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Whether the programme has controlled desertification and delivered lasting tree cover
Government and regulators
Chinese government (Xinhua)

Forest coverage in programme areas rose from 5.05% (1978) to 13.84% (2023); 67.82 percent of treatable desertified land was reported under control in 2026.

Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
Researchers
Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2025)

Forest coverage up 92% and erosion down 61% for 1978-2022, but only 10% of farmland effectively protected, sand-fixing forests less effective than expected and a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests in dieback.

Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Researchers
Cao et al. (2011), as reported by Yale Environment 360

"Attempts to control desertification and soil erosion by afforestation have had little success."

Yale Environment 360
Researchers
Wang et al. (2020)

Vegetation gains in the eastern and central parts attributed mainly to restoration efforts; many planted trees with low survival rates.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory publication record
Researchers
Deng et al. (2024)

A composite index of 2001-2020 rose from 1.000 to 3.584 and the overall evaluation was positive.

Forest and Grassland Resources Research (Chinese journal)

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • Programme described as "the world's largest afforestation project", with forest coverage in programme areas up from 5.05% (1978) to 13.84% (2023) and 32 million hectares of afforestation since 1978.
    Xinhua, 6 June 2024 · Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
  • Taklimakan Desert described as completely encircled by a 3,046 km sand-blocking green belt, as part of the programme.
    Xinhua, 28 November 2024 · Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
  • Investment of 88.9 billion yuan and 544 key projects since 2023; 67.82 percent of treatable desertified land under control.
    Xinhua, 17 August 2026, reporting the National Forestry and Grassland Administration · Ghana News Agency, carrying Xinhua

Recorded

  • IAE (1978-2022): forest coverage in the region up 92%, forest quality up 21%, soil erosion from water flow down 61%, 1.96 petagrams of carbon stored, crop yields up 4-10% through shelterbelts.
    Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • IAE (1978-2022): only 10% of farmland effectively protected by shelterbelts; a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests in dieback; regional water storage declining, with afforestation accounting for about 8% of the decline.
    Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Wang et al. (2020): vegetation gains in the eastern and central parts of the region attributed mainly to ecological restoration; many planted trees with low survival rates.
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory publication record
  • Cao et al. (2011), as reported by Yale Environment 360: afforestation had little success in controlling desertification and soil erosion; surveys cited found as many as 85 percent of plantings fail over time.
    Yale Environment 360
  • Deng et al. (2024): composite index of 2001-2020 rose from 1.000 to 3.584; overall evaluation positive; objectives rated 'general', benefits and sustainability 'good'.
    Forest and Grassland Resources Research (Chinese journal)
  • A Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation (December 2018) gives a total cost of 93.3 billion yuan for 1978-2018. No total of money spent from 1978 to date, and no national tree-survival rate from a field audit, appears in the sources reviewed.

In nature's name

What was promised in nature's name, the money that moved, and what was measured.

Promised

Money moved in nature's name

WhatKindAmountPeriod
Special fund from the central budget to support the programme
Government of China (central budget)
Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn		Budget¥12bn2024
Funding injection for the programme, supporting 287 projects and 58 nursery bases
Government of China
People's Government of Henan Province, carrying Xinhua		Paid out¥32bn2024
Investment in the programme since the critical-phase push began, with 544 key projects launched
Government of China
Ghana News Agency, carrying Xinhua		Paid out¥88.9bn2023-2026
Total cost of planting 46 million hectares of forest in the Three-North areas over 40 years
Government of China
People's Daily Online (English edition)		Spent¥93.3bn1978-2018

What was measured

Measurements differ

Measurements conflict. The 2025 assessment by the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Applied Ecology reports forest-cover and erosion gains for 1978-2022 and also dieback and limited farmland protection; Wang et al. (2020) and Cao et al. (2011, as reported by Yale Environment 360) report low survival of planted trees and little success against desertification. The forest-coverage figures in Xinhua reports are the government's own and are not an independent measurement. The IAE is a state research institute of the programme's host country.

Forest coverage in the region, 1978-2022
up 92%
IAE assessment in SCIENCE CHINA: Life Sciences Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Soil erosion from water flow, 1978-2022
down 61%
IAE assessment Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Farmland effectively protected by shelterbelts
10%
IAE assessment (2025) Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Survival of planted trees
many with low survival rates
Wang et al., Land Degradation and Development (2020) Oak Ridge National Laboratory publication record
Plantings failing over time
as many as 85 percent
Surveys cited in Cao et al. (2011), as reported by Yale Environment 360 Yale Environment 360

Operation Ongoing · Scheduled for completion in 2050; the current phase runs 2021-2030 according to the IAE page. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Findings on record

  • Peer-reviewed study Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (SCIENCE CHINA: Life Sciences) (2025-02-27) · Assessment of the ecological impact of the Three-North Protective Forest Program over 45 years, as described on the IAE news page: “Only 10% of farmland is effectively protected by shelterbelts” Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Peer-reviewed study Wang, Pan, Gerlein-Safdi, Cao, Wang, Gu, Wang and Lu (Land Degradation and Development) (2020-04-15) · Vegetation restoration in northern China: a contrasted picture, 31(6): 669-676 Oak Ridge National Laboratory publication record
  • Peer-reviewed study Cao, Chen, Shankman, Wang, Wang and Zhang (Earth Science Reviews), as reported by Yale Environment 360 (2011) · Excessive reliance on afforestation in China's arid and semi-arid regions, Earth-Science Reviews 104: 240-245: “Attempts to control desertification and soil erosion by afforestation have had little success.” Yale Environment 360
  • Peer-reviewed study Deng, Song, Chen and Wang (Forest and Grassland Resources Research) (2024-12-24) · Evaluation of the Implementation Effectiveness of the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program from 2001 to 2020 Forest and Grassland Resources Research (Chinese journal)

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: CNY · Window: 2023-2026. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • National Forestry and Grassland Administration (17 August 2026): Reported through Xinhua that forest and grassland coverage in the programme area reached 40.76 percent, 88.9 billion yuan had been invested since 2023 and 67.82 percent of treatable desertified land was under control. · Ghana News Agency, carrying Xinhua
  • Government of China (6 June 2024): Xinhua reported that forest coverage in the programme areas rose from 5.05% (1978) to 13.84% (2023) and that afforestation under the programme had expanded by 32 million hectares. · Xinhua, published on english.www.gov.cn
  • Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (27 February 2025): Published its 45-year assessment reporting gains alongside dieback and limited farmland protection. · Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Forest coverage in the programme area, 1978 to 2023
5.05% to 13.84%
Xinhua (official figure); the IAE study reports forest coverage in the region up 92% over 1978-2022
Soil erosion from water flow, 1978-2022
down 61%
IAE assessment in SCIENCE CHINA: Life Sciences
Farmland effectively protected by shelterbelts
10%
IAE assessment (2025)
Shelterbelt forests in dieback
a significant proportion
IAE assessment (2025); no share given on the page reviewed
Survival of planted trees
many with low survival rates
Wang et al., Land Degradation and Development (2020)

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Peer-reviewed findingKey earnings undisclosed

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
  • Disputed Whether the programme has controlled desertification and delivered lasting tree cover

Record

  • None on record None on record: a total of money spent on the programme from 1978 to date. The sources reviewed give a 40-year total to 2018 (93.3 billion yuan, Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation) and annual and recent figures (12, 32 and 88.9 billion yuan for 2024 and since 2023).
  • None on record None on record: a national tree-survival rate from a field audit. Yale Environment 360 reported that surveys cited in the 2011 Earth Science Reviews analysis found as many as 85 percent of plantings fail over time.
  • Unclear Unclear: whether the 12 billion yuan special fund and the 32 billion yuan injection reported for 2024 overlap; Xinhua gives both without a reconciliation.
  • Unclear Unclear: forest-coverage figures. 13.84% is given for 2023 (Xinhua, 2024) and in a 2024 evaluation paper's table for 2020; 40.76% is forest and grassland combined (Xinhua, 2026).
  • Insufficient Unconfirmed: a 2019 press estimate that only 15% of trees planted in the programme area survived appeared in a search summary only and was not read at source.

Did the harm stop?

The 2025 IAE assessment reports that a significant proportion of shelterbelt forests are experiencing dieback and that regional water storage is declining; the sources reviewed do not report that either has stopped.

Who paid?

The Chinese central government budget: a 12 billion yuan special fund (2024), a 32 billion yuan injection (2024) and 88.9 billion yuan invested since 2023, as Xinhua reports. For 1978 to 2018, a Chinese Academy of Sciences evaluation puts the total cost at 93.3 billion yuan; the sources reviewed do not split it by funder.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies

Government and regulators

  2. China plants 4.45 million hectares of trees in 2024 (Xinhua, republished)
    People's Government of Henan Province, carrying Xinhua · 2025-02-06

Press and investigations

  1. China marks National Ecology Day with solid gains in green push (Xinhua)
    Ghana News Agency, carrying Xinhua · 2026-08-17

Researchers

International bodies

  1. Three-North Shelterbelt Program (SDG Partnerships entry)
    United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, SDG Partnerships ·

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.
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