Cases / Wildfire · Russia · 2021
Yakutia wildfire season of 2021: burned area and emissions
Nature's voice · report
About 9.4 million ha of my Sakha Republic burned in 2021, the largest area in almost four decades of satellite observation, according to Avialesookhrana figures cited in a 2022 paper.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
- From June to August 2021 fires in my Russian forests released an estimated 970 megatonnes of CO2, 806 megatonnes of it from the Sakha Republic and Chukotka, according to Copernicus CAMS. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
- My Sakha fires set the highest summer-time total in the CAMS GFAS dataset from June to August 2021, more than double previous years, according to CAMS. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
- In July 2021 the monthly mean aerosol optical depth over Yakutsk was 0.82 (MODIS MAIAC) and 1.37 (AERONET station), 14.9 and 18.7 times the 2007 values, according to researchers at the Shafer Institute. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
- Smoke from my fires reached the Ural Mountains in the west, Mongolia in the south, the North Pole in the north and Alaska in the east, with a maximum plume extent of about 10–12 million km², according to the same researchers. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
- About 8 Mt of PM2.5 were emitted in Russia in 2021, mostly by my Yakutia forest fires, according to Romanov et al. (2022) as cited by the same researchers. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
- Stand-replacing fires covered about 2.5 million ha of my Yakutia in 2021, according to Ponomarev et al. as cited by the same researchers. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
Accounts of the harm differ
Russia’s burned area in 2021
- Government and regulators Rosleskhoz (via Kommersant): 10.1 million ha; 15.1 thousand fires. Kommersant
- Government and regulators Accounts Chamber (sector reporting): 9.9 million ha. Accounts Chamber of Russia
- Communities and civil society Greenpeace Russia (Yaroshenko, satellite data): 18.2 million ha covered by fire, above the 18.1 million ha of 2012. The Moscow Times
Fires in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) burned a total area of 9.4 million ha in 2021, the largest in almost four decades of satellite observation, according to Avialesookhrana figures cited in a peer-reviewed paper. Copernicus CAMS estimated that Sakha and Chukotka fires released 806 of Russia’s 970 megatonnes of CO2 from June to August.
9.4 million haBurned area in Yakutia, 2021
Avialesookhrana total as cited in Remote Sensing (2022); about 150,000 hotspots, almost twice the previous high of 2020.
Avialesookhrana total as cited in Remote Sensing (2022); about 150,000 hotspots, almost twice the previous high of 2020.
Status As of the latest sources: 9.4 million ha burned in Yakutia in 2021 (Avialesookhrana via Remote Sensing); no criminal case on fire management and no insurance payout on record.
What?
Fires in the Sakha Republic burned a total of 9.4 million ha in 2021, the largest area in almost four decades of satellite observation, and Copernicus CAMS estimated 806 megatonnes of CO2 from Sakha and Chukotka fires from June to August. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
Where?
Sakha Republic (Yakutia), including central Yakutia (Vilyuysk, Nyurba districts); Yakutsk was covered in smoke. Meduza
When?
June to early September 2021; fastest hotspot growth from 24 July to 12 August 2021. Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
Who?
Gained
None on recordLost
None on recordHarmed
- Forests of the Sakha Republic — 9.4 million ha burned in 2021; about 2.5 million ha stand-replacing (as cited) Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS)
- Residents of Yakutsk (about 280,000 people) — Poor air quality; pollutant concentrations 1.7–3 times the maximum permissible concentration on 19 July 2021 NASA Earth Observatory
Why?
Greenpeace Russia attributed 99% of fires to people; the Accounts Chamber’s multi-year data for Yakutia attribute 87.9% of fires and 95.9% of burned area to thunderstorms. Yakutia’s deputy prime minister said that at 6 rubles 10 kopecks per hectare fighting fire is very hard. Accounts Chamber of Russia
How?
Yakutia holds the largest control-zone area (217 million ha in 2020); Greenpeace Russia said suppression had been refused on 230 fires covering more than 1 million ha by 16 July 2021, while over 2,000 people and 284 units of equipment were deployed on 19 July. Rossiyskaya Gazeta
6 of 6 questions answered from the record
What happened
The record, in order.
The 2021 fire season in the Sakha Republic ran from June to early September, with the fastest growth in hotspots between 24 July and 12 August. On 19 July 2021 Meduza reported 216 fire foci covering over 1.5 million ha, more than 2,000 people and 284 units of equipment, including a Be-200 aircraft, in action; Yakutsk was covered in smoke, airport work was disrupted and the Lena ferry service was halted. On 10 August ISDM-Rosleskhoz data cited by the Agency for Social Information put burned area in Yakutia at 9.3 million ha, against 6.8 million ha in 2020, with the largest single fire about 1.6 million ha.
A paper by researchers at the Yu.G. Shafer Institute (Remote Sensing, 7 October 2022) cited an Avialesookhrana total of 9.4 million ha for the year, described as the largest in almost four decades of satellite observation in the region, and about 150,000 hotspots in 2021, almost twice the previous high of 2020. For Russia as a whole Rosleskhoz gave 10.1 million ha and 15.1 thousand fires, the Accounts Chamber (sector reporting) gave 9.9 million ha, and Greenpeace Russia, using satellite data, gave 18.2 million ha covered by fire, above the 18.1 million ha of 2012.
Yakutia holds the largest control zone, 217 million ha in 2020 according to the head of Rosleskhoz. On 16 July 2021 Greenpeace Russia’s Grigory Kuksin said suppression had been refused on 230 fires covering more than 1 million ha. Yakutia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Sadovnikov was quoted by Novaya Gazeta Europe as saying that fighting fire is very hard when the region receives 6 rubles 10 kopecks per hectare.
Copernicus CAMS estimated CO2 emissions from wildfires in Russia as a whole from June to August 2021 at 970 megatonnes, with the Sakha Republic and Chukotka accounting for 806 megatonnes, and stated: “A new emissions record was set on 3rd August for the region.” NASA Earth Observatory reported poor air quality in Yakutsk, which has about 280,000 people, and the Shafer Institute researchers recorded smoke reaching the Ural Mountains, Mongolia, the North Pole and Alaska.
- 202119 Jul: 216 fire foci and over 1.5 million ha burning in Yakutia
- 202110 Aug: 9.3 million ha burned in Yakutia (ISDM-Rosleskhoz via ASI)
- 202121 Sep: Copernicus CAMS summer summary of emissions
- 20216 Dec: Copernicus CAMS year review
- 20227 Oct: Tomshin and Solovyev publish the Yakutia 2021 season analysis in Remote Sensing
What was said
Claims, in the words of those who made them.
“Of course, when you get 6 rubles 10 kopecks per hectare, fighting fire is very hard.”
“People cause most fires, 99% are people's fault.”
“The so-called control zone, where for economic reasons, out of poverty, we have refused to fight fires.”
“This year was the most destructive fire year for Russian forests.”
“Based on current official burned area reports, Sakha is on track to have an extreme year of fire.”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
Cause of the fires
Communities and civil society
Greenpeace Russia (Grigory Kuksin, July 2021)
People are the cause of most fires; 99% are people’s fault. The scope of the 99% figure is not stated.
Current TimeGovernment and regulators
Accounts Chamber (multi-year averages for Yakutia)
Thunderstorms cause 87.9% of fires and 95.9% of burned area.
Accounts Chamber of RussiaRussia’s burned area in 2021
Government and regulators
Accounts Chamber (sector reporting)
9.9 million ha.
Accounts Chamber of RussiaCommunities and civil society
Greenpeace Russia (Yaroshenko, satellite data)
18.2 million ha covered by fire, above the 18.1 million ha of 2012.
The Moscow TimesHow it looked
What was shown, beside what was recorded.
Shown
- Official reporting gave Russia’s 2021 burned area as 10.1 million ha (Rosleskhoz) and 9.9 million ha (Accounts Chamber, sector reporting).Rosleskhoz; Accounts Chamber · Kommersant
Recorded
- Burned area in Yakutia: over 1.5 million ha on 19 July 2021; 9.3 million ha on 10 August 2021 (2020: 6.8 million ha); total 9.4 million ha for the year.
- In 2020 Yakutia held 217 million ha of control zones, the largest regional share.
- Multi-year averages for Yakutia: 87.9% of fires and 95.9% of burned area are caused by thunderstorms (Accounts Chamber).
- Federal subventions to all regions in 2021: RUB 4,150.7m for fire monitoring and RUB 4,982.6m for suppression (Accounts Chamber).
- Yakutsk air pollutant concentrations were 1.7–3 times the maximum permissible concentration on 19 July 2021 (Meduza).
Who gained
Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.
Reached nature or the ground
Not published
No figure published.
Gained elsewhere
Not totalled
Federal subvention to all regions: fire monitoring, 20214.2bn
Federal subvention to all regions: fire suppression, 20215bn
Currency: RUB · Window: 2021. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.
Responses on record
- Government of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) (2021): Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Sadovnikov: when the region gets 6 rubles 10 kopecks per hectare, fighting fire is very hard. · Novaya Gazeta Europe
In court and with insurers
Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.
Lawsuits and rulings
No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.
Insurers
No insurer decision on record.
What nature saw
Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
Burned area in Yakutia, 2021
9.4 million ha
Avialesookhrana total cited in Remote Sensing (2022)
CO2, June–August 2021
970 megatonnes (Russia)
806 megatonnes from the Sakha Republic and Chukotka (Copernicus CAMS)
Smoke plume extent
10–12 million km²
Maximum, reaching the Urals, Mongolia, the North Pole and Alaska
What we don't know
Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Nature
- Disputed Russia’s burned area in 2021
Court
- None on record No court case on record.
Accounts
- Disputed Cause of the fires
Record
- None on record None on record: an annual 2021 control-zone share of fires or burned area for Yakutia from official or NGO sources.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: the original source of the Sadovnikov quote about RUB 6.10 per hectare; Novaya Gazeta Europe does not name it.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: the body that took the Yakutsk air-pollution readings reported by Meduza on 19 July 2021.
- None on record None on record: a criminal case concerning Yakutia’s 2021 fire management.
- None on record None on record: insurance payouts for the burned forests.
- Disputed Disputed: the cause of the fires and the national burned area; see the disputes below.
Did the harm stop?
The season ran from June to early September 2021.
Who paid?
None on record.
Sources
Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers
Government and regulators
- A summer of wildfires saw devastation and record emissions around the Northern HemisphereCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service · 2021-09-21
- 2021 saw widespread wildfire devastation and new regional emission records brokenCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service · 2021-12-06
- An Unusually Smoky Fire Season in SakhaNASA Earth Observatory · 2021-08-10
Press and investigations
- Experts: this summer’s fires in Yakutia were the largest in the history of observationsAgency for Social Information (ASI) · 2021-08-12
- Weather helped fight the fireKommersant · 2022-11-15
- Russia’s 2021 Fire Cover Widest Since Imaging Began – GreenpeaceThe Moscow Times · 2021-09-21
- We’re burning!Novaya Gazeta Europe · 2024-07-24
- “Each next year will be worse than the last”: interview with Grigory KuksinCurrent Time · 2021-07-16
- Rosleskhoz shrinks the zones where forest fires may be left burningRossiyskaya Gazeta · 2020-11-03
Researchers
- Features of the Extreme Fire Season of 2021 in Yakutia (Eastern Siberia) and Heavy Air Pollution Caused by Biomass Burning (Remote Sensing 14, 4980)Tomshin O., Solovyev V. (Yu.G. Shafer Institute, SB RAS) · 2022-10-07
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Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
- Siberian wildfire season of 2019: Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk and Yakutia Russia · 2019 Related matter
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- Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (Research institution) — here: Measured CO2 emissions; there: Measured CO2 emissions and smoke
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