Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Law, regulation and treaties · Global · 2019–2021

Shell's 1.5C scenario relied on 700 million hectares of new forest

Short record: the main facts, with sources. A full case file has not been prepared.

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 2 none on record · 1 not measured · 1 unclear See the gaps

Shell's February 2021 Sky 1.5 scenario assumed about 700 million hectares of reforestation and net zero in 2058, with fossil fuels still in use. Carbon Brief and Oxfam set out how much land such a route would need.

What?
Shell's February 2021 Sky 1.5 scenario assumed about 700 million hectares of reforestation and net zero in 2058, with fossil fuels still in use. Carbon Brief
Where?
Global scenario; the Dutch advertising ruling was made in the Netherlands Carbon Brief
When?
Investment 2019-2021; scenario published February 2021; net zero in 2058 Carbon Brief
Who?
Gained
  • Shell — offered customers carbon-neutral driving by offsetting fuel emissions
Lost
None on record
Harmed
None on record
Why?
Shell's scenario was framed as a route to the 1.5C climate goal, according to Carbon Brief's 2021 analysis. Carbon Brief
How?
A scenario model in which large-scale reforestation removes carbon while oil, gas and coal remain in use. Carbon Brief
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Shell's Sky 1.5 scenario, published in February 2021, assumed about 700 million hectares of reforestation over the century, an area close to the size of Brazil, and net zero by 2058, according to Carbon Brief.

Under the scenario fossil fuels were still widely used in 2100, Carbon Brief reported.

Shell said it would invest up to $300 million in natural ecosystems from 2019 to 2021 and offered customers carbon-neutral driving; the Dutch Advertising Code Committee found its CO2-neutral adverts misleading, though its decisions are not binding.

Oxfam calculated in 2021 that reaching net zero through land alone would need at least 1.6 billion hectares of new forest, five times India's area, and that the net-zero plans of BP, Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies could alone require planting an area twice the UK's.

    In court and with insurers

    Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

    Lawsuits and rulings

    No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

    Insurers

    No insurer decision on record.

    What we don't know

    Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

    Nature

    • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

    Record

    • None on record The 2019-2021 investment and the Dutch advertising ruling are cited without a source link in the sources reviewed.
    • Unclear Whether any of the planned reforestation was carried out is not stated.
    • None on record Shell's response to the scenario criticism is not in the sources reviewed.

    Did the harm stop?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Who paid?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Sources

    Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers

    Press and investigations

    Communities and civil society

    1. Net zero: time to tighten the net
      Oxfam GB · 2021-08-03

    Connected cases

    Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
    Terms used on this page

    Science and environment

    Hectare (ha)
    A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

    Carbon and conservation finance

    Offset
    Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.

    Law and courts

    Arbitration
    A private dispute process in which an appointed arbitrator, instead of a court, decides the case.

    Insurance

    Underwriter
    An insurer, or a person at an insurer, who assesses a risk and decides whether and on what terms to insure it.
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