Cases / War and military activity · Ukraine · 2025–2026
Drone strike on the Chornobyl New Safe Confinement, 14 February 2025, and the repair funding
Nature's voice · report
A drone hit the arch over my Unit 4 on 14 February 2025 and made a hole of about 6 m through both layers, the IAEA said, according to BASE.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record.
Recorded
- Radiation levels inside and outside remained normal and stable after the strike, the IAEA said on X. AP (via Fox19)
- My arch lost its primary safety functions, including the confinement capability, according to the IAEA assessment reported in December 2025. NucNet
A drone struck the New Safe Confinement over the destroyed Unit 4 of the Chornobyl plant on 14 February 2025. The IAEA reported, as relayed by NucNet, that the structure had lost its primary safety functions; the EBRD put the repair cost at no less than EUR 500 million and Ukraine's Energy Ministry at EUR 412 million.
≥ EUR 500m vs EUR 412m estimateRepair cost: EBRD vs Ukraine's Energy Ministry
Preliminary estimates. EBRD (April and October 2026): at least EUR 500 million. Ukraine's Energy Ministry (1 April 2026): EUR 412 million for the full repair of the Arch.
Preliminary estimates. EBRD (April and October 2026): at least EUR 500 million. Ukraine's Energy Ministry (1 April 2026): EUR 412 million for the full repair of the Arch.
Status As of October 2026: the G7 committed EUR 260 million on 15 October 2026; a donor conference was scheduled for 9 November 2026; no repair contractor is on record.
What?
A drone hit the New Safe Confinement over Chornobyl Unit 4 on 14 February 2025, making a hole of about 6 m through both layers. The IAEA reported that the structure lost its primary safety functions; repair is estimated at EUR 412 million (Ukraine's Energy Ministry) to at least EUR 500 million (EBRD). NucNet
Where?
New Safe Confinement over Unit 4, Chornobyl nuclear power plant, Kyiv oblast, Ukraine. BASE (Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Germany)
When?
Drone strike at about 01:50 local time on 14 February 2025; fires in the cladding until 7 March 2025; funding commitments through October 2026; donor conference scheduled for 9 November 2026. AP (via Fox19)
Who?
Gained
None on recordLost
- Chornobyl NPP / NSC operator — The arch lost its primary safety functions; dismantling of unstable 1986 Shelter structures cannot resume until repaired (plant statement, March 2026) Chornobyl NPP (state enterprise)
- Donors to the ICCA — Funding repairs with grants and pledges, including the G7's EUR 260 million, Germany's EUR 50 million and EU and UK contributions EBRD
- Ukraine's national budget — EUR 31 million allocated, per Nuclear Engineering International Nuclear Engineering International
Harmed
- Confinement of the destroyed Unit 4 — Outer cladding breached by a hole of about 6 m; about 50% of the north roof damaged by burning; corrosion risk Greenpeace Ukraine
Why?
Ukraine says a Russian drone hit the arch and that the attack was likely intentional; Russia denies striking nuclear infrastructure; the IAEA did not attribute blame. AP (via Fox19)
How?
The EBRD-managed ICCA collects donor pledges; Chornobyl NPP, the EBRD, Bouygues and Vinci discussed a renewed Novarka consortium to carry out the repair on 9 March 2026. Chornobyl NPP (state enterprise)
6 of 6 questions answered from the record
What happened
The record, in order.
At about 01:50 local time on 14 February 2025 a drone hit the New Safe Confinement (NSC), the EBRD-financed arch over the destroyed Unit 4 of the Chornobyl plant. The IAEA said, according to BASE, that the drone started a fire and made a hole of about 6 m in diameter through both layers of the structure, with no elevated radiation. The IAEA said on X, as reported by AP, that “Radiation levels inside and outside remain normal and stable” and that the inner containment shell was not breached; it did not attribute blame. Fires in the cladding smouldered until 7 March 2025 (BASE).
Damage assessments followed. A Greenpeace Ukraine mission, with figures from a Chornobyl NPP lead engineer, reported on 20 March 2025 that about 50% of the north roof was damaged by burning, that the crane system was damaged and that snow and water could enter, risking corrosion; Greenpeace wrote that the structure “no longer functions as designed and licensed”. The IAEA's assessment, reported by NucNet on 8 December 2025, said the NSC had lost its primary safety functions, including the confinement capability, with no permanent damage to load-bearing structures or monitoring systems. In March 2026 the plant said full restoration had to be complete by 2030 to prevent accelerated corrosion, and that dismantling of unstable 1986 Shelter structures could not resume until the repair was done. Temporary closure of the hole in the outer cladding was completed in October 2025.
Ukraine and Russia gave opposing accounts of the strike. President Zelensky said on 14 February 2025 that a Russian drone with a high-explosive warhead had hit the structure; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that any claim of strikes on nuclear infrastructure was not true. Ukraine's Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said on 22 April 2026 that the attack was likely intentional, based on impact angle and a pre-determined route; the Prosecutor General's Office described the drone as Shahed-type. McKenzie Intelligence Services, commissioned by Greenpeace, said the drone was a Russian Geran-2. The IAEA did not attribute blame.
Repair cost estimates differ. In June 2025 the EBRD said emergency repairs could exceed EUR 100 million and that an exact estimate was not yet possible. On 1 April 2026 Ukraine's Energy Ministry said preliminary estimates indicated EUR 412 million for the full repair of the Arch; EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said in April 2026 that at least EUR 500 million was needed, preliminary and possibly rising, with work to start in 2028 and finish in 2030. Pledges to the EBRD-managed ICCA included EU and UK contributions in June 2025 (up to EUR 31.7 million, per the EBRD), a EUR 30 million reallocation from the ICCA administrative budget that, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, the donors' assembly was to make on 1 April 2026, EUR 50 million from Germany announced on 19 August 2026 and a G7 commitment of EUR 260 million announced on 15 October 2026. A donor conference in Paris was scheduled for 9 November 2026.
On 9 March 2026 Chornobyl NPP, the EBRD, Bouygues and Vinci, members of the Novarka consortium that built the NSC, met to discuss a renewed consortium, “NOVARKA-2”, and the two companies were assessing costs in their proposals. A separate drone strike on 7 June 2026 damaged a fuel reception building at the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility, a few hundred metres from spent-fuel containers; the IAEA said, according to BASE, there was no elevated radiation.
- 2025Drone hits the NSC (14 Feb); fires in the cladding extinguished (7 Mar); Greenpeace Ukraine reports roof damage (20 Mar); EU and UK contribute to the ICCA (June); outer-cladding hole closed temporarily (Oct); IAEA assessment reported (8 Dec)
- 2026Ukraine allocates EUR 31m (Feb); NSC contractors meet (9 Mar); donors' assembly to reallocate EUR 30m and Ministry estimates EUR 412m (1 Apr); Prosecutor General says attack likely intentional (22 Apr); restoration account opened (26 Apr); Germany pledges EUR 50m (19 Aug); G7 commits EUR 260m (15 Oct); donor conference scheduled in Paris (9 Nov)
What was said
Claims, in the words of those who made them.
“Radiation levels inside and outside remain normal and stable”
“Putin is certainly not preparing for negotiations.”
“There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure, nuclear energy facilities, any such claim isn't true”
“this targeted attack on an object containing dangerous forces is unequivocally a war crime”
“Obviously, flights over nuclear facilities are carried out exclusively for intimidation and terror”
“had lost its primary safety functions, including the confinement capability”
“Limited temporary repairs have been carried out on the roof, but timely and comprehensive restoration remains essential”
“no one will be able to handle this task better than the companies that designed and built the Confinement.”
“Preliminary estimates indicate that EUR 412 million will be required for the full repair of the Arch”
“We need a firm commitment of funding by the end of 2027”
“Initial preliminary estimates point to half a billion euros”
“A deal was signed today to open a restoration account for the New Safe Confinement and for the first tranche”
“The EBRD is grateful to the G7 nations for their continued leadership and commitment to nuclear safety at Chornobyl.”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
Who was responsible for the strike on the New Safe Confinement?
Government and regulators
Ukraine (President Zelensky; Prosecutor General Kravchenko)
A Russian drone with a high-explosive warhead hit the arch (14 February 2025); the attack was likely intentional, based on impact angle and a pre-determined route (22 April 2026).
Interfax-UkraineGovernment and regulators
Russia (Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov)
“There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure, nuclear energy facilities, any such claim isn't true” (14 February 2025).
AP (via Fox19)Communities and civil society
Greenpeace (McKenzie Intelligence Services)
The drone was a Russian Geran-2, almost certainly pre-programmed (Greenpeace wording).
Greenpeace UkraineHow much will the repair of the New Safe Confinement cost?
Government and regulators
Ukraine's Ministry of Energy
EUR 412 million for the full repair of the Arch (1 April 2026).
Interfax-UkraineInternational bodies
EBRD (Odile Renaud-Basso; Matteo Patrone)
At least EUR 500 million, preliminary and possibly rising (April 2026); “Initial preliminary estimates point to half a billion euros”; at least EUR 500 million (15 October 2026).
EBRDPress and investigations
Kyiv Independent
Attributes a EUR 500 million damage estimate to the IAEA.
Kyiv IndependentHow it looked
What was shown, beside what was recorded.
Shown
- A claim that a Russian drone with a high-explosive warhead hit the structure, and a statement that the strike showed that Russia was not preparing for negotiationsPresident Zelensky of Ukraine · AP (via Fox19)
- A denial that any strike on nuclear infrastructure had taken placeKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov · AP (via Fox19)
- An assessment that the attack was likely intentional, from impact angle and a pre-determined routeProsecutor General of Ukraine · Interfax-Ukraine
- An identification of the drone as a Russian Geran-2, almost certainly pre-programmedMcKenzie Intelligence Services, commissioned by Greenpeace · Greenpeace Ukraine
Recorded
- No radiation increase was recorded after the strike (IAEA, per BASE; Chornobyl NPP sensor network as of 20 March 2025, per Greenpeace Ukraine).
- The IAEA recorded loss of the confinement function and a corrosion risk; no release was measured. It recommended humidity control, an updated corrosion-monitoring programme and upgraded integrated automated monitoring (NucNet).
- The strike broke the tightness of the outer cladding, disabled the anti-corrosion protection of metal structures and damaged critical systems, according to Chornobyl NPP (10 March 2026).
- The IAEA did not attribute the strike to any party (AP).
- Original structure: cost EUR 1.5 billion, funded by 45 donor countries and institutions, with a 2007 design-and-build contract of EUR 935 million (Nuclear Engineering International).
- Contributions to EBRD-managed Chornobyl programmes since 1995: about EUR 2 billion (EBRD, June 2025).
- Contributions to EBRD-managed Chornobyl programmes since 1995: over EUR 2.5 billion (EBRD, October 2026).
Who gained
Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.
Reached nature or the ground
Not published
Compensation paid by a party held responsible—
None on record.
Gained elsewhere
Not totalled
EBRD estimate of repair cost (preliminary)≥ €500m
Window: April and October 2026
Ukraine's Ministry of Energy estimate for full repair of the Arch€412m
Window: 1 April 2026
G7 commitment for urgent repairs€260m
Window: 15 October 2026
Germany's allocation to the ICCA€50m
Window: 19 August 2026
EU contribution to the ICCA (EBRD release)€25m
Window: June 2025
UK contribution to the ICCA (EBRD release)€6.7m
Window: June 2025
ICCA reallocation from the administrative budget for engineering and advance procurement (as stated by Ukraine's Ministry of Energy)€30m
Window: 1 April 2026
Ukraine's allocation from the national budget (Nuclear Engineering International)€31m
Window: February 2026
Euromaidan Press reports UAH 1.6 billion allocated from the state budget after the strike.
Original NSC cost (Nuclear Engineering International)€1.5bn
Window: Construction
Kyiv Post gives EUR 2.1 billion.
Currency: EUR · Window: Mixed — see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.
Responses on record
- russia-gov (14 February 2025): “There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure, nuclear energy facilities, any such claim isn't true” (Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov). · AP (via Fox19)
- iaea (14 February 2025): Did not attribute blame; “Radiation levels inside and outside remain normal and stable”. · AP (via Fox19)
- ebrd (15 October 2026): “The EBRD is grateful to the G7 nations for their continued leadership and commitment to nuclear safety at Chornobyl.” · EBRD
- chornobyl-npp (10 March 2026): Full restoration must be complete by 2030; the companies that built the Confinement are best placed to handle the task. · Chornobyl NPP (state enterprise)
In court and with insurers
Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.
Lawsuits and rulings
- 2025–No defendant leftUkraine's criminal case over the drone strike on the New Safe ConfinementProsecutor General's Office of Ukraine · Criminal · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine → No defendant named
Greenpeace Ukraine reported that the Prosecutor General's Office opened a criminal case. On 22 April 2026 Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said the attack was likely intentional, based on impact angle and a pre-determined route. A department official, Yuriy Belousov, was quoted as describing the attack as “unequivocally a war crime”; no court has ruled and no charges against named persons are on record. Interfax-Ukraine
Insurers
No insurer decision on record.
What nature saw
Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
Hole through the structure
≈ 6 m
Diameter, through both layers (IAEA via BASE)
North roof damaged by burning
≈ 50%
Greenpeace Ukraine, per a Chornobyl NPP lead engineer, March 2025
Repair estimates
EUR 412m – 500m+
Ukraine's Energy Ministry and EBRD, 2026
G7 commitment
EUR 260m
15 October 2026
What we don't know
Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Money
- None on record Compensation paid by a party held responsible — None on record.
Accounts
Record
- Disputed Figures differ: the repair cost is given as EUR 412 million for the full repair of the Arch (Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, 1 April 2026) and at least EUR 500 million (EBRD, April and October 2026). Kyiv Independent attributes a EUR 500 million damage estimate to the IAEA.
- Unclear Unclear: the scope of each repair estimate.
- Disputed Figures differ: the original NSC cost is given as EUR 1.5 billion (Nuclear Engineering International) and EUR 2.1 billion (Kyiv Post).
- Disputed Figures differ: the EBRD gave international contributions to its Chornobyl programmes of about EUR 2 billion (June 2025) and over EUR 2.5 billion (October 2026), and its own resources as more than EUR 800 million (June 2025) and more than EUR 700 million (October 2026).
- Disputed Figures differ: June 2025 contributions to the ICCA are given as up to EUR 31.7 million (EU up to EUR 25 million, UK up to EUR 6.7 million; EBRD) and EUR 42.5 million including France (Nuclear Engineering International).
- Disputed Figures differ: Ukraine's allocation after the strike is given as EUR 31 million (Nuclear Engineering International, February 2026) and UAH 1.6 billion (Euromaidan Press).
- Disputed Figures differ: the date of the IAEA assessment mission is given as November 2025 (Chornobyl NPP) and reported in early December 2025 (NucNet).
- None on record None on record: a repair contractor award; Bouygues and Vinci were still assessing cost in March 2026.
- None on record None on record: charges against named persons in the criminal case over the strike.
- None on record None on record: deposit of the G7 commitment of EUR 260 million into the ICCA; the EBRD describes it as a commitment.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: an exact repair estimate in June 2025 (the EBRD said it was not yet possible); NucNet (December 2025) gave no repair cost figure; Chornobyl NPP (March 2026) gave no restoration cost figure.
- Disputed Disputed: responsibility for the strike. Ukraine says a Russian drone hit the structure; Russia denies strikes on nuclear infrastructure; the IAEA did not attribute blame.
Did the harm stop?
Fires in the cladding smouldered until 7 March 2025 (BASE). A temporary closure of the hole in the outer cladding was completed in October 2025; the EBRD president said in April 2026 that repair work would start in 2028 and finish in 2030.
Who paid?
Donors through the EBRD-managed ICCA, the G7 (EUR 260 million committed), Germany (EUR 50 million) and Ukraine's national budget are funding repairs, as grants and pledges. None on record: payment by a party held responsible.
Sources
Voices on record: ✓ Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers✓ International bodies
Company or project
- On the eve of the ICCA Assembly, Chornobyl NPP, EBRD and Bouygues and Vinci discussed key tasks for restoring NSC functionalityChornobyl NPP (state enterprise) · 2026-03-10
Government and regulators
- On the current situation in UkraineBASE (Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Germany) · 2022–2026 (running chronology)
Press and investigations
- Russia denies striking Chernobyl reactor shell after Ukrainian claimsAP (via Fox19) · 2025-02-14
- Russia attack on Chornobyl reactor confinement in 2025 intentional – prosecutor generalInterfax-Ukraine · 2026-04-22
- Chornobyl NSC restoration plan advancesNuclear Engineering International · 2026-03-18
- EBRD eyes $585M to repair Chornobyl shelterKyiv Post · 2026-spring
- Donors allocate EUR 30 mln for initial restoration work on NSCInterfax-Ukraine · 2026-04-01
- Arch at ChNPP to be repaired no earlier than 2030Liga.net · 2026-04
- Germany allocates 50 million euros to restore Chornobyl NPPKyiv Independent · 2026-08-20
- Funding pledge and tributes paid at conference marking Chernobyl anniversaryWorld Nuclear News · 2026-04-27
- Ukraine opens fund to restore Chornobyl shelterEuromaidan Press · 2026-04-26
Communities and civil society
- Fifty percent of north roof structure of Chornobyl New Safe Confinement shelter severely damagedGreenpeace Ukraine · 2025-03-20
International bodies
- EU and UK make contributions to EBRD-managed Chornobyl ICCA fundEBRD · 2025-06-26
- EBRD welcomes G7 commitment to finance urgent repairs to ChornobylEBRD · 2026-10-15
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- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Set the payment rate; federal law 34-FZ
- Sakhalin-2 and Sakhalin-1 in 2022: transfer decrees, the ecological-audit deduction clause and write-downs Russia · 2022–2026
- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Decree No. 416 and the orders on the stake sale
- Sary-Shagan test range lease to Russia: rent, a 1992–1996 compensation clause and an ecological commission Kazakhstan · 1992–2016
- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Lessee; treaty obligations on rent, compensation and ecological consequences
- Semipalatinsk test site: measured contamination, land reallocation and the Nuclear Safety Zone Kazakhstan · 1949–2026
- International Atomic Energy Agency (International organisation) — here: Reported on damage and radiation, per BASE and NucNet; there: 1998 assessment of radiological conditions
- Semipalatinsk test site: state compensation to residents under Kazakhstan’s 1992 law Kazakhstan · 1949–2025
- International Atomic Energy Agency (International organisation) — here: Reported on damage and radiation, per BASE and NucNet; there: 1998 assessment of radiological conditions at the site
- Siberian wildfire season of 2019: Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk and Yakutia Russia · 2019
- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Prime Minister ordered arson checks (1 August 2019)
- Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics: environmental pledges and the Mzymta valley Russia · 2007–2018
- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Host government; Putin and Kozak statements
- Soviet whaling catches and the reports to the IWC, 1948–1979 Russia · 1948–1994
- Government of Russia (Government) — here: Denied striking nuclear infrastructure; there: Supplied original catch data to the IWC Scientific Committee in 1994
- Strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, 2025 and 2026: IAEA statements on contamination and the Bushehr reactor Iran · 2025–2026
- International Atomic Energy Agency (International organisation) — here: Reported on damage and radiation, per BASE and NucNet; there: Source of statements on contamination and risk
- Suspicion notices over UAH 49.2 million in farmland demining contracts, Mykolaiv oblast Ukraine · 2024–2026
- Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine (Public authority) — here: Criminal case over the strike; there: Notified six people of suspicion
- Turkish holdings' coal expansion alongside renewables (Cenal, Akbelen, İçdaş) Türkiye · 2021–2026
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Bank) — here: Manages the ICCA; financed the NSC; repair estimate; there: Lender
- Ukraine's ban on raw-log exports and the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement arbitration, 2015–2026 Ukraine · 2015–2026
- Government of Ukraine (Government) — here: Attributes the strike to a Russian drone; Energy Ministry estimate; there: Imposed the export ban and the zero quotas; respondent
- Ukraine's mine contamination, the farmland demining programme and mine-action money Ukraine · 2022–2026
- Government of Ukraine (Government) — here: Attributes the strike to a Russian drone; Energy Ministry estimate; there: Sets contamination figures; runs the demining strategy
- Ukraine’s official count of war damage to the environment Ukraine · 2022–2026
- Government of Ukraine (Government) — here: Attributes the strike to a Russian drone; Energy Ministry estimate; there: Publisher of the damage figures
- Uzbek cotton boycott ends forced labour Uzbekistan · 2017–2026
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Bank) — here: Manages the ICCA; financed the NSC; repair estimate; there: Lender to Indorama Agro (USD 70 million)
- Western gray whales off Sakhalin and the company-funded IUCN advisory panel Russia · 2004–2022
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Bank) — here: Manages the ICCA; financed the NSC; repair estimate; there: Lender whose conditions shaped the panel process before leaving the financing