Cases / War and military activity · Ukraine · 2022–2026
War-related greenhouse-gas emissions and Ukraine’s planned climate damage claim
Nature's voice · report
Between 24 February 2022 and 23 February 2026 the war added 311.4 MtCO2e to my atmosphere, according to IGGAW (February 2026).
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record.
Recorded
- 1.39 million ha of my natural landscapes burned in Ukraine in 2025, according to IGGAW, which assigns 70.3 MtCO2e of its four-year total to war-related landscape fires. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
- Two consecutive hot, dry summers, 2024 and 2025, increased the spread of fire on my land, “likely exacerbated by climate change”, according to IGGAW. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
What the record lacks: 4 none on record · 1 not disclosed · 1 insufficient · 2 disputed See the gaps
The Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW) put war-related emissions at 311.4 MtCO2e for 24 February 2022 to 23 February 2026 and priced them at USD 185 per tonne. Ukraine’s ministry has said it will file a climate damage claim against Russia in the Register of Damage; no filing is on record.
311.4 MtCO2e estimateWar-related emissions, 24 February 2022 – 23 February 2026 (IGGAW)
Estimate. At USD 185 per tCO2e the climate damage claim exceeds USD 57 billion; the claim is planned and no filing is on record.
Estimate. At USD 185 per tCO2e the climate damage claim exceeds USD 57 billion; the claim is planned and no filing is on record.
Status As of 19 October 2026: the claim is planned, the Register’s environmental category opened on 30 September 2026, and no filing is on record.
What?
IGGAW estimated war-related emissions of 311.4 MtCO2e over four years and priced them at USD 185 per tCO2e, giving a planned climate damage claim of more than USD 57 billion that Ukraine has said it will file in the Register of Damage. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
Where?
Ukraine, plus effects outside it from civil aviation rerouting and refugees. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
When?
24 February 2022 – 23 February 2026; announced at COP30 on 19 November 2025; the Register’s environmental category opened on 30 September 2026. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
Who?
Gained
None on recordLost
None on recordHarmed
- Atmosphere and climate — 311.4 MtCO2e of war-related emissions over four years (IGGAW) Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
- Natural landscapes of Ukraine — 1.39 million ha burned in 2025 Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
Why?
The ministry cites the July 2025 ICJ advisory opinion and a 2022 UN General Assembly resolution as the basis for seeking compensation. Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine
How?
Emissions are inventoried by category and priced at a social cost of carbon of USD 185 per tCO2e; the Ukrainian government says it will file the result under the Environmental Damage category of the Register. Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
6 of 6 questions answered from the record
What happened
The record, in order.
IGGAW, working with the Ukrainian ministry and the NGO EcoAction, publishes periodic inventories of the greenhouse-gas emissions of the war. Its three-year assessment (24 February 2022 – 23 February 2025), published in October 2025, put the total at “nearly 237 million tons CO2e”, of which warfare was 34%, reconstruction 27% and landscape fires 21%. At a social cost of carbon of USD 185 per tCO2e, EcoAction reported climate damage “over $43 billion”. The lead author was Lennard de Klerk; the work was supported by the European Climate Foundation and the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation.
On 19 November 2025, at COP30 in Belém, the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture announced that Ukraine would seek compensation from Russia for climate damage. It gave emissions of 236.8 million tonnes CO2e (IGGAW, October) and damages of USD 43.8 billion at the social cost of carbon. The ministry said the Register of Damage, “adopted in February 2025”, includes a form for environmental claims, and cited as legal basis the July 2025 International Court of Justice advisory opinion and a 2022 UN General Assembly resolution on Russia compensating Ukraine. No filing date was stated.
The four-year assessment (IGGAW, February 2026) put the total at 311.4 MtCO2e, with 75 MtCO2e added in the fourth year. By category: warfare 114.1 MtCO2e (37%), landscape fires 70.3 (23%), energy infrastructure 18.6 (6%), refugees 5.3 (2%), civil aviation 29.8 (9%) and reconstruction 73.3 (23%). Fossil-fuel use is 90% of warfare emissions and the warfare chart separates fuel use by Russian forces, Ukrainian forces and military aid. In the energy-infrastructure category the assessment counts at least 15 large attacks on gas production and storage (March–December 2025) and 19 further strikes (January–February 2026), attributed to Russian forces, and states that “Ukraine’s Defence Forces conducted over 140 attacks on Russian oil refineries and depots” in the fourth year, with the resulting emissions included.
For landscape fires, the assessment reports 1.39 million ha of natural-landscape fires in Ukraine in 2025 and attributes emissions to the war by comparing fire intensity in the war zone (Zone 2) with similar landscapes and weather in government-controlled areas (Zone 1), with a generic factor for indirect effects. It links two consecutive hot, dry summers (2024 and 2025) to greater fire spread, “likely exacerbated by climate change”. It states that the Ukrainian government “will file a claim under the Environmental Damage category of the Register of Damage for Ukraine” and that at USD 185 per tCO2e the total claim “exceeds 57 billion USD”.
The Register’s environmental category (B3.1) opened on 30 September 2026. No source records that the climate claim has been lodged as of 19 October 2026, and no Russian response to the claim is on record.
- 2025Three-year IGGAW assessment: nearly 237 MtCO2e, climate damage over USD 43 billion (October)
- 2025Ministry announces at COP30 that Ukraine will seek compensation for climate damage; USD 43.8 billion for 236.8 MtCO2e (19 Nov)
- 2026Four-year IGGAW assessment: 311.4 MtCO2e, claim exceeding USD 57 billion (published 20 Feb)
- 2026Register of Damage opens its environmental category B3.1 (30 Sep)
What was said
Claims, in the words of those who made them.
“In many ways, russia is waging a dirty war – and our climate is also its victim.”
“The mechanism for this is established by international law”
“Russian aggression is the cause of additional greenhouse gas emissions, which worsen the existing climate crisis.”
“The Ukrainian government will file a claim under the Environmental Damage category of the Register of Damage for Ukraine”
“Ukraine’s Defence Forces conducted over 140 attacks on Russian oil refineries and depots”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
Responsibility for the assessed emissions and the climate claim
Government and regulators
Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine
Russia’s war causes the climate damage and Ukraine will seek compensation from Russia.
Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of UkraineResearchers
IGGAW
Warfare emissions include the fuel use of both Russian and Ukrainian forces, and energy-infrastructure emissions include Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and depots.
Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)Government and regulators
Government of Russia
No response to the climate claim on record.
How it looked
What was shown, beside what was recorded.
Shown
- The ministry presented USD 43.8 billion of climate damage for 236.8 MtCO2e as the basis for a compensation claim against Russia.Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine (19 November 2025) · Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine
- IGGAW presented 311.4 MtCO2e of war-related emissions, comparable in its words to the annual emissions of France or half of Germany’s yearly emissions.IGGAW (February 2026) · Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW)
Recorded
- Four-year total 311.4 MtCO2e; the fourth year added 75 MtCO2e. Table 1: warfare 114.1 (37%), landscape fires 70.3 (23%), energy infrastructure 18.6 (6%), refugees 5.3 (2%), civil aviation 29.8 (9%), reconstruction 73.3 (23%).
- Warfare emissions: fossil-fuel use (tanks, jets and similar) is 90%; ammunition production and replacement of destroyed hardware make up the remaining 10%. The warfare chart separates “Fossil fuel RU”, “Fossil fuel UA” and “Fossil fuel military aid”, so the category includes both armed forces.
- Energy infrastructure: at least 15 large attacks on gas production and storage (March–December 2025) and 19 further strikes (January–February 2026), attributed to Russian forces; emissions from Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and depots (over 140 in the fourth year) are also included in the category.
- Landscape fires: 1.39 million ha of natural-landscape fires in Ukraine in 2025; war attribution compares fire intensity in the war zone (Zone 2) with similar landscapes and weather in government-controlled areas (Zone 1).
- Refugees registered in Europe and beyond: 5,898,150 persons in the fourth year.
- Climate damage claim at a social cost of carbon of USD 185 per tCO2e: USD 43.8 billion for 236.8 MtCO2e (ministry, November 2025); more than USD 57 billion for 311.4 MtCO2e (IGGAW, February 2026). The assessment is licensed CC BY-SA 4.0 and funded by the European Climate Foundation and Sida through the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation.
- The ministry cited as legal basis the July 2025 ICJ advisory opinion (states whose unlawful acts cause significant climate harm can be held internationally liable) and a 2022 UN General Assembly resolution on Russia compensating Ukraine.
- In July 2025 Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk gave a figure of 180 million tonnes of additional CO2 from shelling and forest fires, without stating its source.
- The Register of Damage environmental category (B3.1) opened on 30 September 2026; it may be used by the State of Ukraine and its authorities and institutions.
Who gained
Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.
Reached nature or the ground
Not published
Climate damage claim, three-year assessment, 236.8 MtCO2e at USD 185/tCO2e (ministry, 19 November 2025) estimate$43.8bn
Planned claim; no filing on record.
Climate damage claim, four-year assessment, 311.4 MtCO2e at USD 185/tCO2e (IGGAW, February 2026) estimate> $57bn
Planned claim; no filing on record. The four-year figure includes the three-year emissions.
Gained elsewhere
Not totalled
Currency: USD · Window: Assessment periods 2022–2025 and 2022–2026. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.
Responses on record
- ukraine-ministry-of-economy (19 November 2025): Ukraine will seek compensation from Russia for climate damage; the Register of Damage includes a form for environmental claims. · Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine
In court and with insurers
Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.
Lawsuits and rulings
No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.
Insurers
No insurer decision on record.
What nature saw
Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
War-related emissions, four years
311.4 MtCO2e
IGGAW; 75 MtCO2e added in year four
Largest categories
Warfare 37%, fires 23%, reconstruction 23%
Table 1 of the four-year assessment
Climate damage claim, planned
More than USD 57 billion
At USD 185 per tCO2e; no filing on record
Landscape fires in Ukraine, 2025
1.39 million ha
IGGAW
What we don't know
Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Court
- None on record No court case on record.
Accounts
- Disputed Responsibility for the assessed emissions and the climate claim
- None on record Government of Russia: No response to the climate claim on record.
Record
- None on record None on record: a filing of the climate claim under category B3.1 of the Register of Damage. The category opened on 30 September 2026; the ministry’s announcement of 19 November 2025 states no filing date.
- None on record None on record: a Russian government response to the climate claim.
- Not disclosed Not disclosed: the amounts of funding from the European Climate Foundation and from Sida through the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation.
- Insufficient Insufficient: the four-year assessment states that not all data sources were complete up to 23 February 2026 and that numbers will be updated once available.
- Disputed Unclear: the source of the ministry’s July 2025 figure of 180 million tonnes of additional CO2 from shelling and forest fires, which differs from the IGGAW series.
Did the harm stop?
Emissions continued in the fourth year of the assessment (75 MtCO2e added); no end date is on record.
Who paid?
No payment on record. Ukraine has said it will file a claim; no filing is on record.
Sources
Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies
Government and regulators
- COP30: Ukraine to seek compensation from russia for climate damageMinistry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine · 2025-11-19
- COP30: Україна вимагатиме від росії компенсації за кліматичні збитки (COP30: Ukraine will demand compensation from Russia for climate damage)Government portal of Ukraine (kmu.gov.ua) · 2025-11-19
Press and investigations
Communities and civil society
- The climate damage has exceeded $43 billionEcoAction · 2025-10-08
- Climate damage caused by Russia’s war in UkrainePlanetary Security Initiative · 2026-02-26
Researchers
- Climate Damage Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine, 24 February 2022 – 23 February 2026Initiative on GHG Accounting of War (IGGAW) · 2026-02
International bodies
- Register of Damage for Ukraine has opened all claims categories for submissionRegister of Damage for Ukraine (Council of Europe) · 2026-09-30
Connected cases
Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
- Register of Damage for Ukraine, the Claims Commission convention and the money meant to pay claims Ukraine · 2024–2026 Related matter
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