Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Water use · Iran · 1960–2025

Rafsanjan pistachio plain: aquifer decline, subsidence and export revenue

Nature's voice · report
My Rafsanjan water table dropped about 17 m between 1983 and 2017, according to GFZ.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record.
Recorded
What the record lacks: 8 none on record · 2 disputed See the gaps

The water table of the Rafsanjan plain in Kerman Province fell about 17 m between 1983 and 2017, and satellite studies measured subsidence of 30 cm per year or more. Iran reported pistachio exports of US$614 million in the first seven Iranian months of 2024.

≈ 17 mWater-table fall on the Rafsanjan plain, 1983–2017
GFZ, 2017: about 1,000 km² subsiding faster than 5 cm per year, locally more than 30 cm per year (2004–2016); Science Advances (2024) gives 37 cm per year for Rafsanjan county.

Status As of February 2025: the Geological Survey of Iran recommended immediately halting excessive withdrawals and suggested water markets; no restoration spending or functioning water market is on record.

What?
The Rafsanjan plain recorded a fall in the water table of about 17 m, a loss of about 300 million m³ of groundwater volume per year and subsidence of 30–37 cm per year, which GFZ attributed to unrestrained groundwater exploitation and described as permanent. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Where?
Rafsanjan plain, Kerman Province, with the Bahraman plain (Rafsanjan County) and the Anar plain nearby. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
When?
Subsidence began in the 1960s according to the Geological Survey of Iran; satellite periods 2004–2016, 2014–2020 and 2015–2023; statements to August 2025. Tejarat News
Who?
Gained
  • Iran's pistachio sector — Exports of US$614 million in the first seven Iranian months of 2024 and US$1.7 billion for 2024 (national figures) Tehran Times
  • Sarcheshmeh Copper Mine, Rafsanjan County — 40 mcm per year of desalinated Persian Gulf water allocated under Line 1 EghtesadOnline (IRNA)
Lost
Harmed
Why?
GFZ attributed the loss to unrestrained groundwater exploitation; agricultural area expanded 50% over 30 years and pistachio covers more than 90% of it; the Rafsanjan governor gave 95% of extraction as agricultural. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
How?
Pumping from the aquifer for orchard irrigation, measured by Envisat, ALOS and Sentinel-1 radar and by water-table records; the Geological Survey proposed halting excessive withdrawals and water markets. Tejarat News
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

GFZ's release of 2 February 2017, on a study by Motagh et al. in Engineering Geology (DOI 10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.01.011), stated that the water table in the Rafsanjan plain had dropped about 17 m between 1983 and 2017; that about 1,000 km² were subsiding faster than 5 cm per year, locally more than 30 cm per year (2004–2016); that groundwater volume was lost at about 300 million m³ per year; that the agricultural area had expanded 50% over 30 years; and that pistachio covered more than 90% of agricultural land in the plain.

The Science Advances study of 10 May 2024 stated that Rafsanjan county, "known for being Iran's center of pistachio production, experiences the highest subsidence rate at an astonishing 37 cm/year", with Arzuiyeh at 34 cm per year, and that Kerman, Rafsanjan and Sirjan each had more than 1,000 km² subsiding. Kerman province depleted about 325 MCM per year and accounted for 19% of national groundwater depletion while producing about 6% of agricultural output. Payne et al. (2025) gave a maximum vertical subsidence of about 340 mm per year in Rafsanjan, and the National Cartographic Center's head said in August 2025 that the Bahraman plain (Kerman) had the highest rate, 31 cm.

Hamid Molanouri, governor of Rafsanjan, said in February 2016 (ISNA via Tabnak) that 570 million m³ of groundwater was extracted yearly, 95% of it for agriculture, and that the Ministry of Energy called Rafsanjan the country's most critical plain. Reza Shahbazi, director general of the Hazards Office of the Geological Survey of Iran, said in February 2025 (Tejarat News) that Rafsanjan had had subsidence for more than 50 years, that the Survey dated its start to the 1340s (1960s), and recommended immediately halting excessive withdrawals and considering water markets; he gave no measured figures.

Iran's pistachio exports were US$614 million in the first seven Iranian months of 2024 (20 March–21 October), according to customs (IRICA) data reported by Tehran Times on 15 November 2024. An official of the Ministry of Agriculture's Non-Tropical Fruit Department, Dariush Salempour, gave over 175,000 tons of pistachio products worth US$1.7 billion for 2024 and about 100,000 tons worth about US$730 million for 21 March to 22 December 2025. In September 2014 Energy Minister Chitchian valued Kerman's pistachio production at 5,200 billion toman and announced a Supreme Water Council-approved water market for 609 plains. Line 1 of the Persian Gulf desalinated water transfer allocated 40 mcm per year to the Sarcheshmeh Copper Mine in Rafsanjan County.

  1. 1960Subsidence begins in the Rafsanjan area, according to the Geological Survey of Iran (1340s)
  2. 1983Start of the 1983–2017 period in which the water table fell about 17 m
  3. 2004Start of the 2004–2016 radar period with locally more than 30 cm per year
  4. 2014Energy Minister announces a water market for 609 plains and values Kerman's pistachio output (19 Sep)
  5. 2016Rafsanjan governor cites 570 million m³ extracted yearly (11 Feb)
  6. 2017GFZ release on Rafsanjan subsidence and pistachio production (2 Feb)
  7. 2024Science Advances study (10 May); pistachio exports of US$614 million in seven months reported (15 Nov)
  8. 2025Geological Survey of Iran calls for halting excessive withdrawals (5 Feb); Cartographic Center gives 31 cm for Bahraman (31 Aug)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“Even if in the future the recharge of water surpasses the extraction, the reservoir is not able to load more water.”

“known for being Iran's center of pistachio production, experiences the highest subsidence rate at an astonishing 37 cm/year”

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • The Ministry of Energy called Rafsanjan the country's most critical plain; 570 million m³ of groundwater extracted yearly, 95% for agriculture.
    Rafsanjan governor Hamid Molanouri (Tabnak, 11 February 2016) · Tabnak (ISNA)
  • Rafsanjan has had subsidence for more than 50 years; excessive withdrawals should be halted immediately and water markets considered.
    Reza Shahbazi, Geological Survey of Iran (Tejarat News, 5 February 2025) · Tejarat News

Recorded

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
Spending on aquifer restoration or well buy-outs in Rafsanjan—
None on record.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Iran pistachio exports, first seven Iranian months of 2024 (20 March–21 October)$614m
Window: 2024
IRICA data via Tehran Times; national figure.
Iran pistachio exports, 2024 (over 175,000 tons)$1.7bn
Window: 2024
Ministry of Agriculture official, via Qazinform/TV BRICS on the TCCIM English site; page undated.
Iran pistachio exports, 21 March–22 December 2025 (about 100,000 tons)≈ $730m
Window: 2025
Same source.
Currency: USD · Window: Mixed — see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • Governor of Rafsanjan (11 February 2016): 570 million m³ of groundwater extracted yearly, 95% for agriculture; the Ministry of Energy calls Rafsanjan the country's most critical plain. · Tabnak (ISNA)
  • Geological Survey of Iran (5 February 2025): Excessive withdrawals should be halted immediately and water markets considered. · Tejarat News

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Water table
−17 m
Rafsanjan plain, 1983–2017 (GFZ)
Subsidence rate
37 cm/yr
Rafsanjan county, 2014–2020 (Science Advances)
Groundwater volume lost
≈ 300 million m³/yr
GFZ, 2017
Share of national depletion
19%
Kerman province, producing about 6% of agricultural output

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court caseKey earnings undisclosed

Money

  • None on record Spending on aquifer restoration or well buy-outs in Rafsanjan — None on record.

Court

Record

  • Disputed Figures differ by period and method: more than 30 cm per year locally (GFZ, 2004–2016); 37 cm per year for Rafsanjan county (Science Advances, 2014–2020); a maximum of about 340 mm per year (Payne et al., 2015–2023); 31 cm in the Bahraman plain (Cartographic Center, August 2025, time unit not stated).
  • Disputed Figures differ: the Rafsanjan governor gave 570 million m³ extracted yearly (2016); GFZ gave about 300 million m³ of groundwater volume lost per year (2017).
  • None on record None on record: a well count or pistachio production and export figures for Rafsanjan in the GFZ 2017 release.
  • None on record None on record: measured subsidence figures in the 2025 Geological Survey of Iran statement.
  • None on record None on record: a functioning water market or water prices in Rafsanjan following the 2014 announcement.
  • None on record None on record: a statement by the Iran Pistachio Association or by pistachio growers.
  • None on record None on record: Rafsanjan-specific pistachio export share and orchard area from an official source.
  • None on record None on record: court proceedings or insurance relating to the Rafsanjan aquifer.

Did the harm stop?

None on record. Subsidence on the plain was measured through 2023, and the Geological Survey of Iran recommended halting excessive withdrawals in February 2025.

Who paid?

The Rafsanjan aquifer, whose volume loss GFZ described as permanent. Pistachio exports brought Iran US$614 million in seven months of 2024; no payer for aquifer restoration is on record.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

Press and investigations

  1. Confidential subsidence atlas of Iran
    Radio Farda · 2025-08-31
  5. Iran pistachio exports 2025 (Qazinform/TV BRICS)
    TCCIM English (undated page) ·

Researchers

  2. Uncovering the impacts of depleting aquifers: A remote sensing analysis of land subsidence in Iran
    Science Advances 10, eadk3039 (Haghshenas Haghighi & Motagh) · 2024-05-10

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Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Groundwater
Water held underground in soil and rock, drawn through wells.
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