Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · Turkey · 2026

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism burden on Turkish exporters

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 1 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps

The EU's carbon border mechanism entered its definitive period on 1 January 2026. Estimates put the 2026 burden on Turkish exporters between EUR 399 million and EUR 771 million, and several governments have objected to the rule.

EUR 399 million to 771 million estimateEstimated 2026 CBAM burden on Turkish exporters
Estimate (EBRD 2021; Redshaw 2026).

Status As of October 2026: CBAM definitive period running; Russia's WTO case ongoing after the EU blocked panel establishment once; Turkey's ETS in pilot.

What?
A border carbon charge on covered imports into the EU, with a cost for Turkish exporters. European Commission
Where?
European Union border; Turkey. European Commission
When?
From 1 January 2026. European Commission
Who?
Gained
  • EU and member-state budgets — Revenue goes to national budgets; 75% proposed for the EU budget from 2028 Bruegel
  • Low-carbon producers with verified emissions — Cost falls to about a quarter Balkan Green Energy News
Lost
  • Turkish exporters — EUR 399 million to EUR 771 million in 2026 (estimate) Balkan Green Energy News
  • African exporters — Estimated GDP loss of 0.91%
Harmed
None on record
Why?
To price the carbon in imported goods like the EU's own production. European Commission
How?
Importers buy certificates priced to the EU emissions market. European Commission
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moved to its definitive period on 1 January 2026. It covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen, and the certificate price is tied to the EU emissions trading price.

Estimates put Turkish exporters' 2026 CBAM burden at EUR 399 million to EUR 771 million. The burden could reach about 50% of today's price in cement, about 18% in aluminium and about 9% in steel. With verified emissions the cost falls to about a quarter.

CBAM revenue currently goes to national budgets. The European Commission proposed that 75% go to the EU budget from 2028; Bruegel put the amount at up to EUR 1.2 billion a year.

Turkey adopted Climate Law No. 7552 in July 2025 and an emissions trading regulation in August 2026. The pilot runs 2026–2027, covers five of CBAM's six sectors, is reporting-only in 2026, and free allocation is 100%.

Objections have come from other governments: the BRICS summit in Rio (2025) referred to CBAM and forest rules as protectionism, and the New Delhi Declaration of 12 September 2026 named CBAM. Russia opened a WTO case on 12 May 2025; the EU blocked panel establishment once in July 2026. A study by ACF and LSE estimated that CBAM could reduce Africa's annual GDP by 0.91%.

  1. 2021EBRD estimate of the Turkish burden published
  2. 2025Turkey's Climate Law No. 7552 (July); Russia opens WTO case on CBAM (12 May); BRICS Rio summit refers to CBAM
  3. 2026CBAM definitive period from 1 Jan; EU blocks WTO panel once (July); Turkish ETS regulation (August); New Delhi Declaration names CBAM (12 Sept)
  4. 2028Commission proposes 75% of CBAM revenue go to the EU budget; pricing of pre-consumer scrap proposed

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Is CBAM a climate measure or protectionism?
Government and regulators
BRICS (Rio 2025; New Delhi 2026)

Referred to CBAM as protectionism disguised as environmental policy; news reports; official text could not be checked.

Down To Earth
International bodies
European Union

The rule applies to all and verified emissions reduce the cost.

European Commission
Government and regulators
Russia

Opened a WTO case on 12 May 2025; the EU blocked panel establishment once in July 2026.

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

    Recorded

    • CBAM covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen from 1 January 2026.
      European Commission
    • Estimated 2026 burden on Turkish exporters: EUR 399 million to EUR 771 million.
      Balkan Green Energy News
    • CBAM counts post-consumer scrap as zero embedded emissions.
      CBAM Guide

    Who gained

    Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

    Reached nature or the ground

    Not published
    No figure published.

    Gained elsewhere

    Not totalled
    Estimated CBAM burden on Turkish exporters, 2026 (lower bound of range up to 771) estimate€399m
    Range EUR 399m to 771m; millions of euros.
    Currency: EUR · Window: 2026. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

    Responses on record

    • european-commission (2026): Proposed that 75% of CBAM revenue go to the EU budget from 2028. · Bruegel

    In court and with insurers

    Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

    Lawsuits and rulings

    1. 2025-05-12–Ongoing
      Russia v European Union: CBAM
      World Trade Organization · International court · Russia → European Union

      The EU blocked the establishment of a panel once in July 2026.

    Insurers

    No insurer decision on record.

    What nature saw

    Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

    Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

    Emissions price on covered imports
    Tied to the EU ETS price
    Definitive period from 1 January 2026
    Ecological measurement of effect
    Not found
    The sources reviewed contain none

    What we don't know

    Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
    No independent ecological evaluationCase pending / contested

    Nature

    • Not measured Harm to nature: No independent ecological evaluation is on record.

    Accounts

    • Disputed Is CBAM a climate measure or protectionism?

    Record

    • None on record Revenue distribution: only a Commission proposal exists; no decision found.
    • Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the wording of the BRICS and New Delhi declarations; they come from news reports, and the official texts could not be checked.
    • Unclear Whether a domestic Turkish carbon price will be deductible from CBAM: no such price applies in the pilot.

    Did the harm stop?

    The mechanism is in force and the sources reviewed record no measured environmental effect.

    Who paid?

    Turkish exporters of covered goods, according to the estimates cited; the sources reviewed do not say who bears an environmental cost.

    Sources

    Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ Standard-setters and registries

    Government and regulators

    1. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
      European Commission · 2026

    Press and investigations

    6. The CBAM scrap loophole
      CBAM Guide · 2025-2026

    Researchers

    Standard-setters and registries

    1. Turkey ETS
      ICAP · 2026

    Connected cases

    Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
    Terms used on this page

    Insurance

    Deductible
    The part of a loss the insured party pays itself before the insurer pays.
    Similar cases
    Carbon credits · United Arab Emirates · 2011–2025
    McKinsey advice to COP28 presidency and fossil clients
    Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionCourt: ongoing
    Wind, hydro and other renewables · Chemical pollution · Carbon credits · Turkey · 2022–2026
    Aydın geothermal plants and fig orchards (Sarı Zeybek, Çamköy, Germencik)
    Same type: Carbon creditsSame countryCourt: ongoing
    Carbon credits · Canada · 2025–2030
    Gigablue and Planetary Technologies ocean carbon credits
    Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionHarm to nature not measured
    Carbon credits · United States · 2007–2026
    Verra registry fee structure, auditor ties and the Follow the Money response
    Same type: Carbon creditsCourt: ongoingHarm to nature not measured
    Plastic waste and recycling claims · Chemical pollution · Carbon credits · United States · 2018
    Coca-Cola plastic pledges and brand audits
    Same type: Carbon creditsSame regionHarm to nature not measured
    Carbon credits · Brazil · 2023–2026
    Pará state pre-sold 12 million REDD+ credits; federal prosecutors sue to cancel
    Same type: Carbon creditsCourt: ongoingHarm to nature not measured