Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Oil, gas and coal operations · Kazakhstan · 2017–2026

Almaty CHP-2 coal-to-gas conversion, Kazakhstan

Nature's voice · report
My air in Almaty averaged 35.3 µg/m³ of PM2.5 over 2018–2021 at the US Embassy monitor, against a WHO annual limit of 5 µg/m³, according to a Bankwatch chart.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
  • The CHP-2 plant is responsible for about one third of the hazardous emissions released into my air over Almaty, according to the EBRD. EBRD
  • Particles in my air were linked to 1,786–2,342 premature deaths in Almaty in 2022 in a study (Mukhtarov et al., Urban Climate, May 2023) cited by Bankwatch. CEE Bankwatch Network
  • Kazhydromet reports that my annual pollution index over Almaty fell 31% in 2025, to 4 (“low”), and mean PM2.5 fell 35.9%. BES.media
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 1 not disclosed · 1 insufficient · 5 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Share of Almaty's air pollution that comes from the combined heat and power plants
  • Government and regulators Bauyrzhan Baybek, former akim of Almaty: CHP contributes 11% and vehicles 70–80% (Bankwatch citing Orda.kz and Vlast). CEE Bankwatch Network
  • Government and regulators Magzum Mirzagaliyev, former Minister of Ecology: CHP-2 and CHP-3 together made up 48% in 2020 (Bankwatch citing Orda.kz and Vlast). CEE Bankwatch Network
  • International bodies EBRD: The plant is responsible for about one third of hazardous emissions in Almaty. EBRD
Trend in Almaty's measured air quality
  • Government and regulators Kazhydromet: Almaty's annual pollution index fell 31% in 2025 to 4 (“low”); mean PM2.5 fell 35.9%; ozone exceedance cases fell from 8,036 to 77. BES.media
  • Communities and civil society Almaty Air Initiative: Independent monitoring shows different dynamics; PM2.5 readings at some stations differ from state posts by up to 27 times. BES.media
Whether conversion to gas is a green project
  • International bodies EBRD: “A perfect example of a green project, which will improve quality of air in Almaty.” EBRD
  • Communities and civil society CEE Bankwatch Network: Gas still emits nitrogen oxides; the EBRD's own summary says the project brings Almaty in line with dust and sulphur dioxide standards but not nitrogen oxides. It asked the EBRD to freeze loan disbursement and assess heat pumps. CEE Bankwatch Network

Almaty's coal-fired combined heat and power plant CHP-2 is being converted to gas with loans from the EBRD and the Asian Development Bank; the cost estimate rose from KZT 98 billion to KZT 388 billion. The state hydrometeorological service and independent monitors report different air-quality trends for the city.

KZT 98 bn → 388 bn estimateCost estimate for the conversion
An early estimate of KZT 98 bn (EUR 200 mln); the state expertise of 27 September 2024 set the cost at KZT 388 bn.

Status As of March 2026: first start-up complex installed; combined-cycle block targeted for September 2026; commissioning deadline December 2026.

What?
Almaty's coal-fired CHP-2 is being converted to gas with EBRD, ADB and Development Bank of Kazakhstan financing; the cost estimate rose from KZT 98 bn to KZT 388 bn, and the state service and independent monitors report different air-quality trends. Kapital.kz
Where?
CHP-2 (TETs-2), western Almaty, Kazakhstan. CEE Bankwatch Network
When?
Talks from 2017; EBRD agreement 25 November 2022; ADB agreement 9 June 2023; state expertise 27 September 2024; commissioning deadline December 2026. Kapital.kz
Who?
Gained
  • Almaty Power Plants (Samruk-Energy) — Borrower of up to KZT 130 bn (EBRD) and KZT 98 bn (ADB) EBRD
Lost
  • Utility customers — Samruk-Energy's chairman warned of a possible 16% cost increase by 2026, adding to tariff pressure (Bankwatch citing Press.kz) CEE Bankwatch Network
Harmed
  • Air over Almaty — Annual mean PM2.5 of 35.3 µg/m³ in 2018–2021 against a WHO annual limit of 5 µg/m³ CEE Bankwatch Network
Why?
The plant is responsible for about one third of hazardous emissions in Almaty according to the EBRD; the project was presented as a green project for the city's air. EBRD
How?
A combined-cycle gas unit is built to replace coal firing, financed by EBRD, ADB and Development Bank of Kazakhstan loans to Almaty Power Plants. Samruk-Energy
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

CHP-2 (510 MWe), which burns coal from the Ekibastuz basin, is the main heat source for Almaty. The project, run by Almaty Power Plants (AlES), a subsidiary of the state company Samruk-Energy, builds a combined-cycle gas unit of up to 557 MW according to Kapital.kz; Samruk-Energy gave “up to 600 MW”. Talks on conversion began in 2017 after a presidential decree, the year CHP-1 was converted to gas. On 26 May 2021, after a meeting with President Tokayev, a new gas-turbine unit was chosen instead of modernising the old plant.

The EBRD signed a facility agreement on 25 November 2022 for up to KZT 130 bn (EUR 260 mln), a 15-year loan to Almaty Power Plants that it called its largest transaction in Kazakhstan that year. The Asian Development Bank signed a loan agreement on 9 June 2023 for KZT 98 bn (about USD 219.2 mln), with a Samruk-Kazyna guarantee. The Development Bank of Kazakhstan signed an agreement of intent; its amount is not disclosed. Commissioning was set for December 2026.

The cost estimate rose from an early KZT 98 bn (EUR 200 mln) to KZT 315 bn (EUR 648 mln) according to Bankwatch citing Orda.kz; to KZT 324 bn in summer 2022 according to former Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov; and to KZT 388 bn in the state expertise of 27 September 2024, as Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said on 24 December 2024. In 2023 Samruk-Energy's chairman warned of a possible 16% cost increase by 2026, adding to utility-tariff pressure (Bankwatch citing Press.kz).

The government expects harmful emissions from CHP-2 to fall from 37.3 to 2.7 thousand tonnes a year. The EBRD expects nitrogen oxides down by more than 86% and annual CO2 down by 55%, with particulate matter and sulphur oxides eliminated, and says the plant is responsible for about one third of hazardous emissions in Almaty; Samruk-Energy gives a 93% cut in harmful substances. Bankwatch says gas still emits nitrogen oxides and that the EBRD's own summary says the project brings Almaty in line with dust and sulphur dioxide standards but not nitrogen oxides.

On 30 March 2026 the Ministry of Energy reported that the first start-up complex had been installed and that the combined-cycle block was targeted for September 2026. On 31 March 2026 Kazhydromet reported that Almaty's annual pollution index fell 31% in 2025 compared with 2024, while the Almaty Air Initiative said independent monitoring shows different dynamics.

  1. 2017Talks on conversion begin after a presidential decree; CHP-1 converted to gas
  2. 2021Meeting with President Tokayev; new gas-turbine unit chosen instead of modernising the old plant (26 May)
  3. 2022EBRD facility agreement signed (25 Nov); Development Bank of Kazakhstan agreement of intent
  4. 2023Asian Development Bank loan agreement signed (9 Jun)
  5. 2024State expertise sets the cost at KZT 388 bn (27 Sep); Bankwatch paper (May); minister gives the figure (24 Dec)
  6. 2026First start-up complex installed (30 Mar); Kazhydromet reports a 31% fall in Almaty's pollution index for 2025 (31 Mar); combined-cycle block targeted for September; commissioning deadline December 2026

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“This is a perfect example of a green project, which will improve quality of air in Almaty”

Alain Pilloux, EBRD Vice President · 25 November 2022 · EBRD

“Gas is often incorrectly described as a better and healthier alternative to coal-based plants”

“no official recognition of the effects that air pollution is having on people”

“Properly tracking air pollution in Almaty is problematic due to limited access to air sensors and limited data on levels of coal consumption”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Share of Almaty's air pollution that comes from the combined heat and power plants
Government and regulators
Bauyrzhan Baybek, former akim of Almaty

CHP contributes 11% and vehicles 70–80% (Bankwatch citing Orda.kz and Vlast).

CEE Bankwatch Network
Government and regulators
Magzum Mirzagaliyev, former Minister of Ecology

CHP-2 and CHP-3 together made up 48% in 2020 (Bankwatch citing Orda.kz and Vlast).

CEE Bankwatch Network
International bodies
EBRD

The plant is responsible for about one third of hazardous emissions in Almaty.

EBRD
Trend in Almaty's measured air quality
Government and regulators
Kazhydromet

Almaty's annual pollution index fell 31% in 2025 to 4 (“low”); mean PM2.5 fell 35.9%; ozone exceedance cases fell from 8,036 to 77.

BES.media
Communities and civil society
Almaty Air Initiative

Independent monitoring shows different dynamics; PM2.5 readings at some stations differ from state posts by up to 27 times.

BES.media
Whether conversion to gas is a green project
International bodies
EBRD

“A perfect example of a green project, which will improve quality of air in Almaty.”

EBRD
Communities and civil society
CEE Bankwatch Network

Gas still emits nitrogen oxides; the EBRD's own summary says the project brings Almaty in line with dust and sulphur dioxide standards but not nitrogen oxides. It asked the EBRD to freeze loan disbursement and assess heat pumps.

CEE Bankwatch Network

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • The conversion was presented as “a perfect example of a green project, which will improve quality of air in Almaty”.
    EBRD · EBRD
  • The conversion was presented as cutting harmful emissions from CHP-2 from 37.3 to 2.7 thousand tonnes a year.
    Government of Kazakhstan, as reported by Kapital.kz · Kapital.kz
  • Almaty's annual pollution index was presented as 31% lower in 2025 than in 2024, at 4 (“low”).
    Kazhydromet · BES.media

Recorded

  • EBRD loan: up to KZT 130 bn (EUR 260 mln), 15 years, to Almaty Power Plants.
    EBRD
  • ADB loan: KZT 98 bn (about USD 219.2 mln), with a Samruk-Kazyna guarantee.
    The Astana Times
  • Measured PM2.5 in Almaty averaged 35.3 µg/m³ over 2018–2021 (US Embassy BAM-1020 monitor), against a WHO annual limit of 5 µg/m³ (Bankwatch chart).
    CEE Bankwatch Network
  • A study by Mukhtarov et al. (Urban Climate, May 2023), cited by Bankwatch, attributes 1,786–2,342 premature deaths in Almaty in 2022 to PM2.5.
    CEE Bankwatch Network
  • Kazhydromet reported that mean PM2.5 fell 35.9% and ozone exceedance cases fell from 8,036 to 77 in 2025 compared with 2024; the Almaty Air Initiative said PM2.5 readings at some stations differ from state posts by up to 27 times.
    BES.media

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
EBRD loan to Almaty Power Plants (EUR 260 mln)130bn
Window: agreement 25 Nov 2022
ADB loan to Almaty Power Plants (about USD 219.2 mln), Samruk-Kazyna guarantee98bn
Window: agreement 9 Jun 2023
Early cost estimate (EUR 200 mln)98bn
Window: before 2022
Cost estimate cited by Bankwatch (EUR 648 mln)315bn
Window: by 2024
Cost estimate cited by the former Energy Minister324bn
Window: summer 2022
Cost per the state expertise388bn
Window: 27 Sep 2024
Currency: KZT · Window: 2022–2026; mixed, see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • ebrd (25 November 2022): Described the project as a perfect example of a green project that will improve air quality in Almaty, and expects nitrogen oxides down by more than 86% and CO2 down by 55%. · EBRD
  • samruk-energy (25 November 2022): Gave the new unit as up to 600 MW and a 93% cut in harmful substances; commissioning deadline December 2026. · Samruk-Energy
  • kz-ministry-of-energy (30 March 2026): Reported the first start-up complex installed and the combined-cycle block targeted for September 2026. · Kapital.kz
  • kazhydromet (31 March 2026): Reported Almaty's annual pollution index down 31% in 2025 and mean PM2.5 down 35.9%. · BES.media

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Almaty PM2.5, annual mean 2018–2021
35.3 µg/m³
US Embassy monitor; WHO annual limit 5 µg/m³
Expected cut in CHP-2 emissions
37.3 → 2.7 thousand t/yr
Government figure; not yet commissioned
Premature deaths attributed to PM2.5, Almaty 2022
1,786–2,342
Mukhtarov et al., cited by Bankwatch
Pollution index 2025 vs 2024
−31%
Kazhydromet; independent monitors report different dynamics

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court caseNo independent ecological evaluation

Nature

  • Disputed Share of Almaty's air pollution that comes from the combined heat and power plants
  • Disputed Trend in Almaty's measured air quality
  • Disputed Whether conversion to gas is a green project

Court

Record

  • Disputed Figures differ: the EBRD gives its loan as up to KZT 130 bn (EUR 260 mln); Bankwatch gives EUR 252 mln.
  • Disputed Figures differ: the new unit's capacity is given as up to 557 MW (Kapital.kz) and up to 600 MW (Samruk-Energy).
  • Not disclosed Not disclosed: the amount of the Development Bank of Kazakhstan's participation (agreement of intent).
  • Insufficient Insufficient: tracking of air pollution in Almaty; Bankwatch cites limited access to air sensors and limited data on levels of coal consumption.
  • Unclear Unclear: whether the combined-cycle block started in September 2026; the latest source is dated March 2026.

Did the harm stop?

None on record.

Who paid?

Loans from the EBRD (up to KZT 130 bn) and the ADB (KZT 98 bn) to Almaty Power Plants, a subsidiary of the state company Samruk-Energy; the ADB loan carries a Samruk-Kazyna guarantee. Tariff effects are cited in Bankwatch's paper (a possible 16% cost increase by 2026 adding to tariff pressure).

Sources

Voices on record: ✓ Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers✓ International bodies

Company or project

Press and investigations

Communities and civil society

International bodies

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Bonds and banking

Arranger
The bank that structures and sells a bond or loan deal, usually for a fee.
Guarantee
A commitment by a third party, often a development bank, to pay if the borrower does not.
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