Record tree-planting claims in Ethiopia, India and Türkiye lack independent checks
Short record: the main facts, with sources. A full case file has not been prepared.
Governments in Ethiopia and Türkiye announced planting totals and survival rates that the sources reviewed do not verify independently. Tree planting may also be unsuited to savanna land counted in African restoration pledges.
- Ethiopian government — announced a one-day planting total of 353 million seedlings and an 84 per cent survival rate
- Türkiye's ministry — announced that 95 per cent of the 11 million saplings were healthy Bianet
- Saplings planted in Türkiye — about 90 per cent dried out, according to the union; the ministry disputed this Duvar English
- Savanna and grassland in African restoration pledges — an area the size of France pledged for tree planting where planting is unsuitable, according to Parr and colleagues
What happened
Ethiopia's government said it planted 353 million seedlings in one day in 2019, and its prime minister said in 2020 that 84 per cent had survived; no independent audit of that figure was found.
Türkiye planted 11 million saplings on 11 November 2019. In January 2020 the Tarım Orman-İş union said about 90 per cent of the saplings it examined had dried out because they were planted in the wrong season, while the ministry said 95 per cent were healthy.
Parr and colleagues reported in Science in February 2024 that an area the size of France in African restoration pledges is savanna and grassland where tree planting is unsuitable; AFR100 said the authors had wrongly equated restoration with afforestation.
Bastin and colleagues called tree restoration 'the most effective climate solution to date' in a 2019 Science paper; critics said its carbon estimate was about five times too large.
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What we don't know
Nature
- Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
Record
- Insufficient Reported but not verified: Madhya Pradesh, India, planted 66.75 million saplings in 12 hours in 2017, and an activist said fewer than 10 million survived.
- Insufficient Reported but not verified: the Sembrando Vida programme in Mexico, which pays farmers monthly for planting trees, may have contributed to the loss of 72,830 hectares of forest cover in 2019; the WRI said the analysis was not definitive.
- Insufficient Reported but not verified: Bastin and colleagues issued a correction in 2020.
- Not measured No independent measurement was found for any of the planting totals or survival rates.
- None on record The sources reviewed do not give the cost of the planting campaigns or who paid for them.
Did the harm stop?
Not stated in the sources reviewed.
Who paid?
Not stated in the sources reviewed.
Sources
Press and investigations
- 90 pct of 11 mln tree saplings planted by govt diedDuvar English · 2020-01-23
Connected cases
- Ethiopia: 353 million seedlings in a day Ethiopia · 2019–2025
- Government of Ethiopia (Government) — here: announced one-day planting total and survival claim; there: Organiser; source of the planting and survival figures