Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative, 2019 to 2026
- Government and regulators Minister of Agriculture Girma Amente (December 2023): About 85% survival of the 7.5 billion seedlings planted in the previous rainy season, from the first of two annual surveys. Fana Broadcasting Corporate
- Government and regulators Ethiopian News Agency (2026): Seedling survival estimated at about 80%. Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfrica
- Researchers Tefera and Thatiparthi, Discover Environment (2025): District-level survival rates averaged 39.80% in Gubalafto district from local administrative records, range 7.59% to 76.50%; the authors did not validate the records in the field. Springer Nature
- Researchers Gebretsadik and Uaiene, Discover Conservation (2026): Gains in vegetation cover are limited by poor seedling survival; reliable figures on survival are lacking. Springer Nature
- Press and investigations Addis Fortune editorial (2025): Survival rates are around 20-30% nationally; no source is given on the page. Addis Fortune
A national tree-planting campaign launched in May 2019 under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The government reports billions of seedlings planted each year and survival of about 85% (Minister of Agriculture, December 2023); a 2025 peer-reviewed study of one district reported average seedling survival of 39.80% from local records, and a 2026 review of 38 studies found vegetation gains limited by poor seedling survival and limited monitoring.
Tefera and Thatiparthi, Discover Environment (2 October 2025); one district, records not independently validated by the authors. The Minister of Agriculture reported about 85% in December 2023 from the first of two annual surveys.
Status As of August 2026: the government reports 805.3 million seedlings planted on 3 August 2026 and survival of about 80% to 85%; a 2025 district study reports 39.80% survival from administrative records and a 2026 review reports poor survival and restricted monitoring; no national survival audit is on record.
- Government of Ethiopia — Reports billions of seedlings planted, survival of about 80% to 85% and recognition of the planting events (ENA, Fana) Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfrica
- Community nurseries and cooperatives — The Ethiopian News Agency reports jobs created through community nurseries, youth cooperatives and women-led businesses; WRI Africa reports more than 767,000 jobs WRI Africa
- Planted seedlings — Average survival 39.80% in Gubalafto district, 2019-2024 (peer-reviewed study, local records) Springer Nature
What happened
The Green Legacy Initiative was launched in May 2019 under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, according to the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA, 3 August 2026). ENA reported government figures of about 4.7 billion seedlings planted in 2019 against a 4 billion target, about 5.9 billion in 2020, about 6.8 billion in 2021, about 7.2 billion in 2022, more than 7.5 billion in 2023, about 7.5 billion in 2024 and about 8 billion in 2025. On 29 July 2019 the Minister of Innovation and Technology reported a final count of 353,633,660 seedlings planted in 12 hours, which he said had been verified by the National Steering Committee; Africanews wrote that "To make it onto the World Record, the figures need to be independently verified" and that it was not clear whether Guinness World Records was monitoring the planting. The Prime Minister's office told the Associated Press that specially developed software was helping with the count.
On 26 December 2023 the Fana Broadcasting Corporate reported that Minister of Agriculture Girma Amente said "we found about 85% survival rate for seedlings planted during the previous rainy season", for 7.5 billion seedlings, from the first of two annual surveys; the Minister put the total planted in the first phase and the first year of the second phase at 32.5 billion and the overall goal at 50 billion trees across two phases. ENA reported in 2026 that survival was estimated at about 80%. Cumulative totals vary by source: more than 32 billion seedlings (WRI Africa, 29 May 2025), 38.6 billion (Tefera and Thatiparthi, 2025), past 40 billion (ENA, 2024) and past 48 billion before the 2026 season (Ethiopian Forestry Development, as reported by ECOticias on 15 August 2026).
Tefera and Thatiparthi (Discover Environment, 2 October 2025) used Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery for 2013-2024 in Gubalafto district and found, in their words, that "Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80%", with annual rates from 7.59% to 76.50%; the survival figures came from local administrative records, which the authors did not validate in the field. Gebretsadik and Uaiene (Discover Conservation, 15 March 2026) reviewed 38 studies and concluded that the initiative had led to "enhanced vegetation cover, stabilized soil, and specific livelihood advantages", limited by "poor seedling survival, inadequate post-planting management, and restricted monitoring of carbon storage", and that reliable figures on seedling survival, hydrological effects and ecosystem service values are lacking. An EGU General Assembly 2026 abstract (not peer-reviewed) by Workie, Brandt, Ciais and colleagues mapped canopy height at 10 m resolution and reported a net gain of 23,537 km2 in tree cover of trees above 8 m for 2019-2024, mostly young trees offsetting losses of tall trees, and wrote that "GLI reported planting 32 billion trees since 2019, yet evidence remains limited."
On money, the Minister of Agriculture said at the 2021 launch that the initiative cost 900 million birr, partly covered by partners and the balance by the government, and the Prime Minister put the economic estimate at "the investment of six billion birr" (Capital, 24 May 2021). WRI Africa reported on 29 May 2025 that the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund, approved by the House of Peoples' Representatives on 24 December 2024, allocates "0.5% to 1% of its annual federal budget - about $40 to $80 million" to restoring degraded landscapes. An Addis Fortune editorial of 2 August 2025 stated that a seedling costs about 120 Br excluding staff, transport and tools, and that survival rates are around 20-30% nationally; it gave no source for the survival figure on the page.
- 2019Initiative launched (May); 353,633,660 seedlings reported planted in 12 hours on 29 July
- 20212021 round launched at the Office of the Prime Minister (19 May); cost stated as 900 million birr
- 2023Minister of Agriculture reports about 85% survival of 7.5 billion seedlings (26 December)
- 2024Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund approved by the House of Peoples' Representatives (24 December)
- 2025Gubalafto district study published (2 October): average survival 39.80%
- 2026Review of 38 studies published (15 March); EGU abstract on canopy height; 805.3 million seedlings reported planted on 3 August
What was said
“We are planting Ethiopia. We are planting hope to give our children a better tomorrow”
“we found about 85% survival rate for seedlings planted during the previous rainy season”
“To make it onto the World Record, the figures need to be independently verified.”
“Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80%”
“poor seedling survival, inadequate post-planting management, and restricted monitoring of carbon storage”
“GLI reported planting 32 billion trees since 2019, yet evidence remains limited.”
“Saplings cannot be rushed like election rallies.”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
About 85% survival of the 7.5 billion seedlings planted in the previous rainy season, from the first of two annual surveys.
Fana Broadcasting CorporateSeedling survival estimated at about 80%.
Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfricaDistrict-level survival rates averaged 39.80% in Gubalafto district from local administrative records, range 7.59% to 76.50%; the authors did not validate the records in the field.
Springer NatureGains in vegetation cover are limited by poor seedling survival; reliable figures on survival are lacking.
Springer NatureSurvival rates are around 20-30% nationally; no source is given on the page.
Addis Fortune32.5 billion so far in the first phase and the first year of the second phase.
Fana Broadcasting CorporateCumulative total past 40 billion by 2024.
Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfricaNationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings.
Springer NaturePast 48 billion planted seedlings before the 2026 season.
ECOticias353,633,660 seedlings planted in 12 hours, verified by the National Steering Committee.
AfricanewsA world record needs the figures to be independently verified; it was not clear whether Guinness World Records was monitoring.
AfricanewsVolunteer numbers in the planting-day reports are inconsistent and the per-planter pace implausible.
Addis FortuneHow it looked
Shown
- Seedling survival estimated at about 80%; forest cover in some areas up from 27.64% to 38.24% within six years; the initiative described as a "scientifically validated model for large scale ecosystem restoration" (the news agency's own wording).Ethiopian News Agency, 3 August 2026 · Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfrica
- About 85% survival of the 7.5 billion seedlings planted in the previous rainy season, from the first of two annual surveys.Minister of Agriculture Girma Amente, via Fana Broadcasting Corporate (26 December 2023) · Fana Broadcasting Corporate
- 353,633,660 seedlings planted in 12 hours, verified by the National Steering Committee according to the Minister of Innovation and Technology.Government of Ethiopia, via Africanews (29 July 2019) · Africanews
Recorded
- Gubalafto district (2019-2024): average seedling survival 39.80%, range 7.59% to 76.50%, from local administrative records not validated in the field; the study found expanding dense vegetation and fluctuating forest cover.
- Review of 38 studies (2026): vegetation cover, soil stabilisation and some livelihood gains, limited by poor seedling survival, inadequate post-planting management and restricted monitoring of carbon storage.
- EGU 2026 abstract (not peer-reviewed): net gain of 23,537 km2 in tree cover above 8 m, 2019-2024; the gain in young trees offset losses of tall trees; evidence on the planting claim limited.
- No national audit of seedling survival and no figure for the programme's total cost appear in the sources reviewed.
In nature's name
Promised
- “We are planting Ethiopia. We are planting hope to give our children a better tomorrow” — Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, at the 2026 campaign launch, as reported by the Ethiopian News Agency (2026) Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfrica
Money moved in nature's name
| What | Kind | Amount | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund, share of the annual federal budget Government of Ethiopia WRI Africa | Budget | $40m | annual; fund approved 24 December 2024 |
| Cost of the 2021 round, partly covered by partners and the balance by the government Government of Ethiopia and partners Capital Ethiopia | Budget | 900m ETB | 2021 |
What was measured
Survival figures conflict: the government reports about 80% to 85%, a peer-reviewed district study reports 39.80% from local administrative records, and an editorial states around 20-30% nationally. Independent work finds vegetation or tree-cover gains (a 2026 review; a 2026 conference abstract mapping a net gain of 23,537 km2 in tree cover above 8 m) alongside poor survival and limited monitoring. The government's survival figures and planting counts are the implementer's own and are not an independent measurement.
Operation Ongoing · 805.3 million seedlings reported planted on 3 August 2026; goal of 50 billion trees across two phases. ECOticias
Findings on record
- Peer-reviewed study Tefera and Thatiparthi (Discover Environment) (2025-10-02) · Evaluating the impact of Ethiopia's green legacy initiative on land use/cover change in Gubalafto district using google earth engine, 3: 167: “district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80%” Springer Nature
- Peer-reviewed study Gebretsadik and Uaiene (Discover Conservation) (2026-03-15) · Synthesis of environmental and socioeconomic outcomes of Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative for sustainability, 3: 15 (review of 38 studies): “poor seedling survival, inadequate post-planting management, and restricted monitoring of carbon storage” Springer Nature
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- Government of Ethiopia (26 December 2023; 3 August 2026): The Minister of Agriculture said about 85% of 7.5 billion seedlings planted in the previous rainy season survived, from the first of two annual surveys, and that maintaining or surpassing this rate was crucial; the Ethiopian News Agency reported survival estimated at about 80%. · Fana Broadcasting Corporate
- Government of Ethiopia (29 July 2019): The Prime Minister's office told the Associated Press that specially developed software was helping with the count of the 2019 planting. · Africanews
- Government of Ethiopia: No response to the Gubalafto district study or the 2026 review appears in the sources reviewed.
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Nature
- Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
- Disputed How many planted seedlings survive
Accounts
Record
- Disputed Disputed: seedling survival. The Minister of Agriculture reported about 85% (December 2023) and ENA about 80% (2026); a peer-reviewed district study reported 39.80% from administrative records (2019-2024); an Addis Fortune editorial stated around 20-30% nationally without a source on the page.
- Disputed Disputed: the cumulative number of seedlings planted, given as 32 billion, 32.5 billion, 38.6 billion, 40 billion and 48 billion in different sources and years; the sources do not reconcile the figures.
- None on record None on record: the programme's total cost; the sources reviewed give a 900 million birr cost for the 2021 round and a special fund of about US$40 to US$80 million a year.
- None on record None on record: the result of the second annual survey announced in December 2023 and a national audit of survival.
- Insufficient Unconfirmed: the government's one-day planting counts (353,633,660 on 29 July 2019; 805.3 million on 3 August 2026) have no independent verification in the sources reviewed.
- Unclear Unclear: how many of the planted seedlings were exotic species such as eucalyptus; the review of 38 studies and an Addis Fortune editorial flag fast-growing non-native species but give no share.
Did the harm stop?
Who paid?
The Government of Ethiopia and partners: the 2021 round cost 900 million birr, partly covered by partners and the balance by the government; the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund, approved 24 December 2024, allocates 0.5% to 1% of the annual federal budget, about US$40 to US$80 million (WRI Africa). Citizens plant seedlings on volunteer campaign days.
Sources
Government and regulators
- Ethiopia's Green Legacy in Restoring Nature and Transforming Agriculture (Yordanos D.)Ethiopian News Agency, republished by AllAfrica · 2026-08-03
- About 85 percent of last year's 7.5bn seedlings survived: MinisterFana Broadcasting Corporate · 2023-12-26
Press and investigations
- Ethiopia breaks world record for tree planting in a single dayAfricanews · 2019-07-29
- Seedling initiative launchedCapital Ethiopia · 2021-05-24
- Saplings Should Not Be Rushed Like Election Rallies (editorial)Addis Fortune · 2025-08-02
- Ethiopia put 805 million seedlings in the ground in twelve hours (ECOticias)ECOticias · 2026-08-15 · Archived copy
Communities and civil society
- Ethiopia's Green Legacy (Tsion Issayas, Yigremachew Seyoum Lemma)WRI Africa · 2025-05-29
Researchers
- Satellite observations reveal large-scale restoration interventions reversing deforestation in Ethiopia (Workie, Brandt, Ciais, Gaber, Pellikka, Gonsamo), abstract EGU26-2837EGU General Assembly 2026 (conference abstract) · 2026-03-13
Connected cases
- Bezos Earth Fund: first grants and SBTi funding United States · 2020–2026
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Recipient of $100m (first round)
- Ethiopia: 353 million seedlings in a day Ethiopia · 2019–2025
- Government of Ethiopia (Government) — here: Runs and funds the initiative; reports planting and survival figures; there: Organiser; source of the planting figure
- Generation Investment Management: fees, partners' profit and Foundation grants United Kingdom · 2004–2026
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Blood board seat; grant recipient 2015 to 2018
- Half-Earth and 30x30 advocacy funding (Wyss Campaign for Nature) Global · 2016–2026
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Commented on the Kunming-Montreal agreement
- Record tree-planting claims in Ethiopia, India and Türkiye lack independent checks Multiple countries · 2017–2020
- Government of Ethiopia (Government) — here: Runs and funds the initiative; reports planting and survival figures; there: announced one-day planting total and survival claim
- Sembrando Vida (Sowing Life) Mexico · 2019–2022
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Estimated first-year forest cover loss (WRI Mexico)
- Tropical Forest Forever Facility Brazil · 2025
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Published the description of the fund's payment structure
- Venezuela tree cover loss, 2001–2024, and international forest finance Venezuela · 2001–2024
- World Resources Institute (NGO) — here: Reported on the Green Legacy and Landscape Restoration Special Fund; there: Operator of Global Forest Watch