Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Finance, funds and markets · Brazil · 2011–2026

Bolsa Verde (Brazil): quarterly payments to families for forest conservation, 2011–2016 and the 2023 relaunch

Nature's voice · report
Budget announced at the signing of the law; not a record of money paid 230 million reais were budgeted in my name. The benefit that was measured: Deforestation as a share of protected area at average coverage (40% of households), 0.08 percentage points lower.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Accounts differ ↓
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 2 none on record · 3 not measured · 3 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
How much Bolsa Verde reduced deforestation

Bolsa Verde, introduced in October 2011 under Brazil's plan against extreme poverty, paid R$ 300 a quarter to extremely poor families in settlements and conservation units of the Amazon that kept forest cover; it was suspended in 2016 for budget reasons and relaunched in 2023 at R$ 600 a quarter. A peer-reviewed study published in February 2026 found the first phase reduced deforestation in participating areas, by an amount equal to one third of the post-program mean in comparable untreated areas.

R$ 300Quarterly payment per family, original programme (2011)
Doubled to R$ 600 per quarter in the 2023 relaunch (Decree No. 7,572 as amended; Brasil61). Budget announced in October 2011: R$ 230 million through 2014.

Status As of March 2026: Bolsa Verde operates again at R$ 600 per quarter since September 2023; a peer-reviewed study of the first phase (2011–2016) was published in February 2026; no evaluation of the second phase appears in the sources reviewed.

What?
Cash payments to low-income families living in conservation units and settlements of the Amazon who commit to conserve the forest, with payments conditional on collective forest preservation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
Where?
Settlements and sustainable-use conservation units of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, mainly in the Arc of Deforestation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
When?
Introduced October 2011; suspended in 2016; announced again 5 June 2023; first new payments 27 September 2023. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
Who?
Gained
Lost
Harmed
None on record
Why?
To reduce deforestation and alleviate extreme poverty; policymakers feared poverty pushed residents to cooperate with loggers and miners, and monitoring in remote areas was costly. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
How?
Cash transfer to individual households conditional on keeping at least 80 percent of forest area in the priority area, with satellite monitoring and enforcement by IBAMA, INPE and others. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Bolsa Verde was introduced in October 2011 as part of the Brazil Without Extreme Poverty plan, according to the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (JEEM, 2026). IRIB's report of 17 October 2011 on the president signing the law said the programme would pay R$ 300 per quarter to families in extreme poverty living in federal conservation units who committed to preserve them, with an initial 3,500 families in the Legal Amazon, a goal of 18,000 by the end of 2011 and 75,000 by 2014, and a budget of R$ 10 million in 2011 and R$ 230 million through 2014. Decree No. 7,572 of 28 September 2011 gave the Ministry of Environment the coordination of the programme and set payments of up to two years, renewable, conditional on budget availability. The JEEM study describes eligibility as extreme poverty, defined as monthly income per household member under 77 Brazilian reais, registration in the Cadastro Único and a commitment to conserve; payments were conditional on preserving at least 80 percent of the forest area in the priority area, a collective condition.

The programme was suspended in 2016 according to JEEM, which says it operated until 2016 "when it was suspended due to budget cuts"; Poder360 reported in 2023 that it had been created under President Dilma Rousseff and ended under Michel Temer, without giving years. The administrative data used in the JEEM study list 31,621 beneficiary households between 2011 and 2015; IPAM's summary of the study says it analysed 317 areas with 21,000 participating families, mainly in the Arc of Deforestation. A 2017 descriptive study from the University of Brasília compared 55 municipalities in Pará for 2012–2015 and reported that it could not verify a positive relationship between the programme's principles and its expected results because deforestation increased in beneficiary municipalities, although it fell in municipalities receiving the most funds.

President Lula announced the programme's return on 5 June 2023, World Environment Day, with an initial target of about 30,000 families of traditional communities, according to Poder360; the Environment Minister said that about 80% of protected forests in the world are under the domain of such communities. Decree No. 11,635 of 16 August 2023 amended Decree No. 7,572, and the current text sets quarterly transfers of R$ 600 per family for up to two years, renewable, to families in federal forests, extractive reserves, sustainable development reserves and settlements who are registered in the Cadastro Único and carry out conservation activities. Brasil61 reported that CAIXA began paying on 27 September 2023, R$ 600 every three months to more than 6,000 families, chosen by the Ministry.

The JEEM study (Wong, Kuralbayeva, Anderson, Pessôa and Harding, published 19 February 2026) used satellite data for 2005–2015 and difference-in-differences estimates. It found that deforestation as a share of the protected area decreased by 0.08 percentage points when programme coverage rose from zero to its average level of 40% of households, equal to one third of the post-program mean in comparable untreated areas; effects were concentrated in unpopulated parts of the areas and outside private properties, and fines were issued at greater distances from alarm locations. The authors estimated avoided deforestation of 22,600 ha and 8.3 million tonnes of CO2 over 2012–2015, total programme cost of about USD 71 million (transfers of roughly USD 38 million, fiscal cost between USD 42 million and USD 53 million, plus foregone production), an abatement cost of about USD 8.6 per tonne and a value of avoided emissions of USD 199 million at a social cost of carbon of USD 24 per tonne; they describe the calculation as back-of-the-envelope and did not evaluate poverty effects. The research was funded by the Research Council of Norway. An earlier working paper (2023) reported deforestation 22% lower in treated areas, and IPAM's March 2026 summary reports a 30% fall in primary forest clearing.

  1. 2011Decree No. 7,572 (28 September); programme introduced in October; law signed 17 October with a R$ 230 million budget through 2014
  2. 2012First payments (per IPAM's summary of the JEEM study)
  3. 2016Programme suspended due to budget cuts (JEEM)
  4. 2017University of Brasília descriptive study of 55 Pará municipalities presented (29–30 June)
  5. 20235 June: Lula announces the return of Bolsa Verde; 16 August: Decree No. 11,635; 27 September: first payments of R$ 600 per quarter to more than 6,000 families
  6. 2026JEEM study published online (19 February); IPAM summary (6 March)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“incentivar a conservação dos ecossistemas”

“tolerância zero com a devastação de nosso meio ambiente”

President Lula, announcing the return of Bolsa Verde · 5 June 2023 · original in Portuguese · Poder360

“Vocês sabem que cerca de 80% das florestas protegidas no mundo estão sob domínio dessas comunidades tradicionais.”

Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment · 5 June 2023 · original in Portuguese · Poder360

“Our estimates suggest that the avoided emissions cost around USD 8.6 per ton”

“Não foi possível verificar uma relação positiva”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

How much Bolsa Verde reduced deforestation
Researchers
Wong et al., JEEM (2026)

Deforestation fell by 0.08 percentage points at average coverage, one third of the post-program mean in untreated comparable areas, concentrated in unpopulated parts of the areas.

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
Researchers
Wong et al., working paper (2023)

Deforestation 22% lower in treated areas than in similar untreated areas; emissions-reduction benefits about four times programme costs.

Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Globalisation Research (via EconPapers)
Communities and civil society
IPAM (2026)

Primary forest clearing fell 30% in participating settlements and sustainable-use units during the first phase.

IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute)
Researchers
University of Brasília (2017)

In 55 Pará municipalities, deforestation fell in the highest recipients but rose in beneficiary municipalities; no positive relationship with expected results could be verified. The study is descriptive.

Universidade de Brasília, repositório

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • Programme described as paying extremely poor households in remote protected areas cash conditional on maintaining the forest cover of their protected areas.
    Authors of the JEEM study, describing the programme · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
  • Bolsa Verde's return presented as part of "tolerância zero" with deforestation, starting in the Amazon and intended to expand to the whole country.
    President Lula and the Environment Minister, as reported by Poder360 · Poder360
  • Study presented as proving Bolsa Verde's results in reducing deforestation.
    IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute), whose researcher co-authored the study · IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute)

Recorded

In nature's name

What was promised in nature's name, the money that moved, and what was measured.

Promised

  • “incentivar a conservação dos ecossistemas” — Decree No. 7,572 (as amended), article 3, the programme's stated objective (Portuguese original) (2011; 2023) Câmara dos Deputados, Legislação Informatizada
  • “tolerância zero com a devastação de nosso meio ambiente” — President Lula (Portuguese original) (5 June 2023) Poder360

Money moved in nature's name

WhatKindAmountPeriod
Budget announced for the programme through 2014
Federal government
IRIB (Instituto de Registro Imobiliário do Brasil)		Budget230m BRL2011–2014
Budget announced for 2011
Federal government
IRIB (Instituto de Registro Imobiliário do Brasil)		Budget10m BRL2011
Payment per family per quarter, original programme
Federal government
IRIB (Instituto de Registro Imobiliário do Brasil)		Subsidy0m BRL2011–2016
Payment per family per quarter, 2023 relaunch
Federal government
Câmara dos Deputados, Legislação Informatizada		Subsidy0m BRL2023 onward
Cash transfers over four programme years, study sample (authors' estimate)
Federal government
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360		Spent$38m estimate2012–2015
Total fiscal cost incl. administration, lower bound (authors' estimate)
Federal government
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360		Spent$42m estimate2012–2015
Total fiscal cost incl. administration, upper bound (authors' estimate)
Federal government
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360		Spent$53m estimate2012–2015
Total economic cost incl. foregone production (authors' estimate)
Federal government and landholders
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360		Spent$71m estimate2012–2015

What was measured

Benefit measured

A peer-reviewed study (JEEM, 2026) found reduced deforestation in participating areas during 2012–2015. The authors are university and research-institute researchers (Queen Mary University of London, Suleyman Demirel University, INPE, IPAM, Kristiania University of Applied Sciences); one co-author is at IPAM, which published the press summary, and the research was funded by the Research Council of Norway. The cost and carbon figures are the authors' back-of-the-envelope estimates. A 2017 descriptive study of Pará municipalities could not verify a positive relationship; it is not a causal study. No audit or evaluation of the relaunched programme is on record.

Deforestation as a share of protected area at average coverage (40% of households)
0.08 percentage points lower
One third of the post-program mean in comparable untreated areas Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
Avoided deforestation, 2012 cohort, 2012–2015
22,600 ha
Authors' estimate Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
Avoided emissions
8.3 million tonnes CO2
Authors' estimate, implying about USD 8.6 per tonne Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360
The value of avoided emissions is roughly 2.8 times total program costs, at a social cost of carbon of USD 24 per tonne. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Elsevier); copy hosted by Poder360

Operation Ongoing · Suspended in 2016 per JEEM; payments resumed on 27 September 2023. Brasil61

Findings on record

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: BRL · Window: 2011–2014 budget. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (2023): Coordinates, executes and operates the programme under the amended decree and, per Brasil61, chooses the families paid. · Câmara dos Deputados, Legislação Informatizada
  • President Lula (5 June 2023): Announced the return of Bolsa Verde with "tolerância zero com a devastação de nosso meio ambiente". · Poder360
  • IPAM (6 March 2026): Its researcher and the study's co-author said "Bolsa Verde has positively influenced the governance of the areas." · IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute)

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Effect on deforestation, share of protected area (coverage from zero to 40% of households)
0.08 percentage points lower
JEEM (2026); equals one third of the post-program mean in comparable untreated areas
Avoided deforestation, 2012–2015 early-adopter areas
22,600 ha
JEEM authors' estimate
Avoided CO2 emissions
8.3 million tonnes
JEEM authors' estimate, 2012–2015
Where the effect was concentrated
unpopulated parts of the areas and outside private properties
JEEM (2026)

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Peer-reviewed findingUnder standard-setter review

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
  • Disputed How much Bolsa Verde reduced deforestation

Record

  • None on record None on record: the total amount actually paid by the programme in 2011–2016; the sources reviewed give the announced budget (R$ 10 million in 2011 and R$ 230 million through 2014) and the JEEM authors' own cost estimates only.
  • None on record None on record: an official audit or evaluation by a public audit body of Bolsa Verde; the JEEM study cites a 2013 reference to the federal audit court (TCU) on the policy's motivation, and the sources reviewed do not report its findings.
  • Unclear Unclear: the end date of the first phase. JEEM says it operated until 2016 when it was suspended due to budget cuts; Poder360 says it was ended under Michel Temer without giving a year.
  • Disputed Disputed: the size of the effect on deforestation. The 2023 working paper reported deforestation 22% lower in treated areas, IPAM's 2026 summary reports a 30% fall in primary forest clearing, and the published JEEM abstract reports 0.08 percentage points, one third of the post-program mean in untreated areas.
  • Disputed Disputed: the scale of the 2023 relaunch. Poder360 reported an initial target of about 30,000 families; Brasil61 reported more than 6,000 families at the first payment.
  • Not measured Not measured: the programme's effect on poverty; the JEEM authors state they did not evaluate it.
  • Not measured Not measured: the effect of the relaunched programme since 2023; the sources reviewed contain no evaluation of the second phase.

Did the harm stop?

The sources reviewed do not report that deforestation stopped; the JEEM study found a reduction in participating areas during 2012–2015, and describes the 2023 programme as reactivated.

Who paid?

The Brazilian federal budget through the Ministry of Environment; the JEEM authors estimate total fiscal cost between USD 42 million and USD 53 million for the study cohorts and an economic cost of about USD 71 million including foregone production. The 2023 programme is charged to the Ministry's budget allocations.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

Government and regulators

Press and investigations

  2. Dilma sanciona lei que cria Bolsa Verde
    IRIB (Instituto de Registro Imobiliário do Brasil) · 2011-10-17

Communities and civil society

  1. Study proves Bolsa Verde's results in reducing deforestation
    IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) · 2026-03-06

Researchers

  2. Individual Pay for Collective Performance and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil, Working Paper No. 110
    Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Globalisation Research (via EconPapers) · 2023-02

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Insurance

Premium
The price paid for an insurance policy.
Similar cases
Finance, funds and markets · Green subsidy or budget claim · Protected area / relocation · European Union · 1992–2027
EU LIFE Programme: the EU's dedicated environment and nature fund, 1992 to 2027
Same type: Finance, funds and markets, Green subsidy or budget claim, Protected area / relocationHarm to nature disputedHarm to nature not measured
Mining · Protected area / relocation · Chemical pollution · Finance, funds and markets · Venezuela · 2011–2026
Orinoco Mining Arc: decree, state gold business and measured harm
Same type: Protected area / relocation, Finance, funds and marketsSame regionHarm to nature disputed
Mining · Finance, funds and markets · Law, regulation and treaties · Protected area / relocation · Venezuela · 2008–2026
Las Cristinas gold project: 2008 permit denial in the Imataca reserve, Crystallex ICSID award and court-ordered sale of CITGO's parent
Same type: Finance, funds and markets, Protected area / relocationSame regionHarm to nature disputed
Natural-capital land · Protected area / relocation · Law, regulation and treaties · Finance, funds and markets · Cyprus · 1995–2025
Limni Bay / Polis-Gialia golf and villa resort, Cyprus: infringement procedure closed (2019), land sold (2025)
Same type: Protected area / relocation, Finance, funds and marketsHarm to nature disputedHarm to nature not measured
Finance, funds and markets · Protected area / relocation · Water use · Global · 2020–2026
Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR)
Same type: Finance, funds and markets, Protected area / relocationHarm to nature disputedHarm to nature not measured
Tanker / shipping · Green subsidy or budget claim · Protected area / relocation · Indonesia · 2010–2022
Norway–Indonesia REDD+ partnership: the 2010 Letter of Intent, payments made and Indonesia's 2021 termination
Same type: Green subsidy or budget claim, Protected area / relocationHarm to nature disputedHarm to nature not measured