Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Tree planting · Kenya · 2018–2026

Kenya's 15 billion trees target

Nature's voice · report
6 million of my trees were felled.
Eucalyptus, first half of 2024 (Kenya Forestry Research Institute, via Eastleigh Voice).
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record.
Recorded
  • About 53,300 hectares of my forest were lost.
    Mau Forest tree-cover loss 2001–2022, about 533 km² (more than 19%); Global Forest Watch via Mongabay.
Calculated by published method, from figures on record; not part of the record
By the IPCC Tier 1 method, the loss of that forest released an estimated 6.4 million to 39 million tonnes of CO₂.
The Mau is treated as tropical mountain forest in primary condition. The input is tree-cover loss, which can include plantations and temporary loss, so the estimate may overstate forest carbon lost. How this is calculated
What the record lacks: 2 none on record · 1 insufficient · 2 self-reported only · 1 unclear See the gaps

Kenya set a target of 15 billion trees and 30% tree cover by 2032, and declared a national tree-planting day in 2023. The same year it lifted a logging ban; an environmental court halted the lifting.

15bn target / 900m+ reportedTarget vs reported planting
Government's reported figure, February 2026; no independent count.
What?
Kenya set a target of 15 billion trees and 30% tree cover by 2032, and declared 13 November 2023 a national tree-planting holiday with a target of 100 million seedlings. In July 2023 it lifted a logging ban in place since 2018; an environmental court halted the lifting in October 2023. The Star
Where?
Kenya, nationwide; Mau Forest; Uganda, where charcoal supply shifted.
When?
Logging moratorium 2018; ban lifted July 2023; court halted the lifting October 2023; national tree-planting day 13 November 2023; six million eucalyptus felled in the first half of 2024; more than 900 million trees reported planted by February 2026.
Who?
Gained
  • Charcoal suppliers in Uganda — Charcoal imports into Kenya from Uganda rose 133% in the first six months of the 2018 moratorium (Bartlett et al., 2024) Bartlett et al.
Lost
  • Charcoal users in Kenya — An immediate 36% rise in charcoal prices under the 2018 moratorium (Bartlett et al., 2024) Bartlett et al.
Harmed
  • Forests in Uganda — The study's authors concluded that avoided deforestation in Kenya likely moved to Uganda and that net emissions rose Bartlett et al.
  • Mau Forest — More than 19% tree-cover loss, about 533 km², 2001–2022 (Global Forest Watch); the Kenya Forest Service said the satellite images did not reflect reality on the ground Mongabay
  • Eucalyptus trees — Six million felled in the first half of 2024, reported as for export (Kenya Forestry Research Institute) Eastleigh Voice
Why?
The government tied the 15-billion-tree target to reaching 30% tree cover by 2032. A 2024 study found that the 2018 logging moratorium raised charcoal prices, likely shifted avoided deforestation to Uganda and increased net emissions. AllAfrica
How?
Progress is reported as trees planted: more than 900 million by February 2026, the government's own figure, with no independent count and no count for the 13 November 2023 planting day. Official forest cover is 8.83%; the 12.13% tree-cover figure also counts trees outside forests. AllAfrica
In proportion The more than 900 million trees reported by February 2026 equal about 6% of the 15-billion target (estimate). AllAfrica
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

Kenya's government set a target of 15 billion trees and 30% tree cover by 2032. It declared 13 November 2023 a national holiday for tree planting, with a target of 100 million seedlings in one day. No count of the trees planted that day is on record. In February 2026 more than 900 million trees were reported planted.

In July 2023 President Ruto lifted a logging ban in place since 2018. In October 2023 a Kenyan environmental court halted the lifting. In the first half of 2024, six million eucalyptus trees were felled, according to the Kenya Forestry Research Institute; the felling was reported as being for export.

A 2024 study in Environmental Research Letters found that the 2018 logging moratorium raised charcoal prices by 36% at once and increased charcoal imports from Uganda by 133% in the first six months. The authors concluded that avoided deforestation likely moved to Uganda and that net emissions rose.

Official measurement puts forest cover at 8.83% (Kenya Forest Service, 2021 data). Tree cover, which also counts trees outside forests, is 12.13%. A fact-check found a presidential claim of a rise from 6.99% in 2013 to 8.83% in 2022 incorrect: 6.99% was 2010 data.

Global Forest Watch data showed more than 19% tree-cover loss in the Mau Forest between 2001 and 2022, about 533 km². The Kenya Forest Service said the satellite images did not reflect the reality on the ground.

  1. 2018Logging moratorium introduced
  2. 2022Fact-check finds presidential forest-cover claim incorrect
  3. 2023Logging ban lifted (Jul); environmental court halts the lifting (Oct); national tree-planting day, 100m target (13 Nov)
  4. 2024Six million eucalyptus felled in six months; study finds moratorium shifted charcoal supply to Uganda; Forest Service disputes Mau satellite data
  5. 2026Target restated: 15bn trees, 30% tree cover by 2032; more than 900m reported planted (Feb)

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • 15 billion trees by 2032
  • 100 million seedlings in one day (13 November 2023)
  • Tree cover of 12.13%

Recorded

  • No count of trees planted on 13 November 2023
  • Logging ban lifted in the same year; a court halted the lifting
  • Six million eucalyptus felled in the first half of 2024
  • Forest cover 8.83%; the 12.13% figure counts trees outside forests
  • Mau Forest: more than 19% tree-cover loss, 2001–2022

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
Public spending on the 15 billion trees programme—
Not in the source record.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: USD · Window: —. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

  1. 2023–2023Claimant won
    Challenge to the lifting of Kenya's logging ban
    Kenyan environmental court · Administrative · Not named in the source record → Government of Kenya

    In October 2023 the court halted the government's July 2023 lifting of the logging ban in place since 2018. Africanews

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Trees reported planted
900m+
Government figure, Feb 2026; target 15bn
Eucalyptus felled
6m
First half of 2024
Mau Forest tree-cover loss
> 19%
2001–2022, about 533 km²

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Court ruling existsNo independent ecological evaluation

Money

  • None on record Public spending on the 15 billion trees programme — Not in the source record.

Figures

  • Self-reported only Trees planted: Government's reported figure; no independent count. Target: 15,000 million by 2032.

Record

  • Self-reported only How many trees were planted on 13 November 2023, and how many of the 900 million reported survive: no independent count on record.
  • Unclear Whether the court ruling on the logging ban was appealed or is final.
  • Insufficient Reported, not verified: the 2024 national forest status report estimates 84,716 ha of deforestation and 14,934 ha of degradation a year.
  • None on record The then chair of Kenya's water towers agency wrote that a forest-cover figure of 7.1% was revised to 7.2% without explanation and that a joint study with Japan found 6.1%; these figures have not been reconciled with the official 8.83%.

Did the harm stop?

The lifting of the logging ban was halted by a court in October 2023. Six million eucalyptus were felled in the first half of 2024.

Who paid?

Charcoal users in Kenya, who faced a 36% price rise under the 2018 moratorium, and forests in Uganda, where supply shifted.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

Press and investigations

  2. Ruto courts logging controversy
    Climate Home News · 2023-08-29
  9. Opinion (Isaac Kalua)
    The Standard · 2024-09-22

Researchers

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.
IPCC Tier 1
The simplest method in the IPCC guidelines for greenhouse-gas inventories, using default values per forest type when local measurements are not available.
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