Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Tree planting · Kazakhstan · 2020–2026

Kazakhstan's two-billion-tree programme

Nature's voice · report
Of the trees planted for me, 45.3% of the 2021 planting survived, 35.1% of 2022, 31.2% of 2023 and 50.5% of 2024, according to the Ministry of Ecology.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
  • On my dried Aral Sea bed, survival of 20–25% was expected. Informburo
  • In Akmola and Zhetysu regions, survival over three years was no more than 60%, according to the Prime Minister. Informburo
  • In West Kazakhstan, 54% of forest crops survived, against a national norm of 63.5%, according to the Supreme Audit Chamber. BES.media
What the record lacks: 3 none on record · 1 not measured · 2 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Whether reported plantings match what was planted
  • Government and regulators Bakytzhan Bazarbek, Mazhilis deputy: Millions of trees reported as planted could not be found and money for planting had gone missing; cites Mangistau 2022 (target 167,000, 21,000 planted) and East Kazakhstan 2021 (127,000 against 85,000); no criminal case opened. NUR.KZ
  • Government and regulators Zhomart Aliev, Vice-Minister of Ecology: The analysis is finding discrepancies with statistics in some regions; the work is being carried out. NUR.KZ
  • Government and regulators Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov: Padded figures and false reporting must be stopped and punished. Informburo

A 2020 presidential instruction set a target of planting at least 2 billion trees on forest-fund land by 2025; the programme was extended to 2027. Ministry figures put annual tree survival between 31.2% and 50.5% in 2021–2024, against a launch target of 65%, and a Mazhilis deputy said in 2025 that millions of trees reported as planted in some regions could not be found.

31.2%–50.5%Survival of planted trees by planting year (Ministry of Ecology)
2021: 45.3%; 2022: 35.1%; 2023: 31.2%; 2024: 50.5%. The target at launch was 65%.

Status As of 13 October 2026: programme extended to 2027; Supreme Audit Chamber conclusion on West Kazakhstan published; no criminal case on planting reports on record.

What?
A programme to plant at least 2 billion trees by 2025, extended to 2027, has reported annual survival of 31.2%–50.5% in 2021–2024 against a launch target of 65%; a Mazhilis deputy said millions of trees reported as planted could not be found. Bizmedia.kz
Where?
Nationwide, with a large share on the dried Aral Sea bed in Kyzylorda region; the Supreme Audit Chamber's 2026 conclusion covers West Kazakhstan region. Prime Minister of Kazakhstan
When?
Instruction in 2020; programme years 2021–2025, extended to 2027; deputy's statement on 4 February 2025; audit conclusion on 13 October 2026. Bizmedia.kz
Who?
Gained
Lost
  • State budget — More than KZT 36 bn allocated for forest crops in 2021–2025 (Ministry of Ecology) Bizmedia.kz
Harmed
  • Planted trees — Survival between 31.2% and 50.5% a year in 2021–2024; 20–25% expected on the dried Aral Sea bed Bizmedia.kz
Why?
Survival is not taken into account in reporting and seedling supply was below 90% of need, according to the Prime Minister; the Supreme Audit Chamber found survival norms were not set for settlement plantings. Informburo
How?
Akimats and the national budget fund planting on forest-fund land and in settlements; the Ministry of Ecology reports planted numbers and survival by year. Bizmedia.kz
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

In 2020 President Tokayev instructed the government to plant at least 2 billion trees on forest-fund land by 2025. The original estimate was KZT 82 bn, of which KZT 60 bn was to come from akimats (regional administrations) and KZT 22 bn from the national budget; the Ministry of Ecology says more than KZT 36 bn was allocated for forest crops in 2021–2025. In July 2025 the programme was extended to 2027. For 2021, Vice-Minister Aliya Shalabekova reported spending of KZT 12 bn (KZT 7.2 bn from local budgets and KZT 4.6 bn from the national budget) and 130 million trees planted on 62,000 ha.

On 8 October 2024 Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov criticised the results, saying he did not yet see quality; he gave about 970 million seedlings planted since 2021, said survival over three years in Akmola and Zhetysu regions was no more than 60% and seedling supply was below 90% of need, said survival is not taken into account in reporting, and said padded figures and false reporting must be stopped and punished. In 2025 the Ministry of Ecology gave 1.36 billion trees planted (743 million seedlings plus 640 million seeds).

On 4 February 2025 Mazhilis deputy Bakytzhan Bazarbek said that millions of trees reported as planted could not be found and that money for planting had gone missing, citing Mangistau in 2022 (target 167,000, 21,000 planted) and East Kazakhstan in 2021 (127,000 against 85,000), and said no criminal case had been opened and no one had been held responsible. The same day Vice-Minister Zhomart Aliev said the Ministry's analysis was finding discrepancies with statistics in some regions and that work on them was being carried out.

On 28 May 2026 Mazhilis deputy Bolatbek Nazhmetdinuly said state plantings lose up to 70% and that a bill on greening effectively legalises the death of up to 70% of seedlings. On 13 October 2026 the Supreme Audit Chamber (VAP) published a conclusion on the 2025 budget execution report with data for West Kazakhstan region: for settlements the plan was 999.8 thousand trees and 680.3 thousand were planted (a shortfall of 319.5 thousand); in the forest fund 39.03 million were planted against a plan of 38.3 million; forest-crop survival in the region was 54%, against a national norm of 63.5%. For plantings in settlements, survival norms were not set at all.

  1. 2020Presidential instruction to plant at least 2 billion trees by 2025
  2. 2021KZT 12 bn spent; 130 million trees on 62,000 ha reported (7 Dec)
  3. 2024Prime Minister criticises results; about 970 million seedlings planted since 2021 (8 Oct)
  4. 2025Deputy Bazarbek's statement on planting figures (4 Feb); programme extended to 2027 (14 Jul)
  5. 2026Mazhilis debate on survival norms (28 May); Supreme Audit Chamber conclusion on West Kazakhstan (13 Oct)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“Not a single criminal case has been opened on these facts; no one has been held responsible”

Bakytzhan Bazarbek, Mazhilis deputy · 4 February 2025 · translated from Russian · NUR.KZ

“We can fulfil this provided there is sufficient funding”

Yerlan Nysanbayev, Minister of Ecology · 2025 · translated from Russian · Bizmedia.kz

“effectively legalises the death of up to 70% of seedlings”

Bolatbek Nazhmetdinuly, Mazhilis deputy (AMANAT), on a greening bill · 28 May 2026 · translated from Russian · Azattyq Ruhy

“For plantings in settlements, survival norms were not set at all”

Supreme Audit Chamber conclusion, as relayed by BES.media · 13 October 2026 · translated from Russian · BES.media

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Number of trees planted
Government and regulators
Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov

About 970 million seedlings planted since 2021 (8 October 2024).

Informburo
Government and regulators
Ministry of Ecology

1.36 billion trees planted by 2025: 743 million seedlings plus 640 million seeds, with seeds counted as trees.

Bizmedia.kz
Whether reported plantings match what was planted
Government and regulators
Bakytzhan Bazarbek, Mazhilis deputy

Millions of trees reported as planted could not be found and money for planting had gone missing; cites Mangistau 2022 (target 167,000, 21,000 planted) and East Kazakhstan 2021 (127,000 against 85,000); no criminal case opened.

NUR.KZ
Government and regulators
Zhomart Aliev, Vice-Minister of Ecology

The analysis is finding discrepancies with statistics in some regions; the work is being carried out.

NUR.KZ
Government and regulators
Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov

Padded figures and false reporting must be stopped and punished.

Informburo

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • The programme was presented as 1.36 billion trees planted by mid-2025 (743 million seedlings plus 640 million seeds).
    Ministry of Ecology · Bizmedia.kz
  • About 970 million seedlings were reported planted since 2021.
    Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov · Informburo

Recorded

  • Survival by planting year, as reported by the Ministry of Ecology: 2021, 45.3%; 2022, 35.1%; 2023, 31.2%; 2024, 50.5%. The target at launch was 65%.
    Bizmedia.kz
  • On the dried Aral Sea bed, 20–25% survival was expected.
    Informburo
  • Regional akimats allocated more than KZT 1 bn for nursery reconstruction since 2024.
    Prime Minister of Kazakhstan
  • In West Kazakhstan region, 2021–2025: settlement plantings 680.3 thousand against a plan of 999.8 thousand; forest-fund plantings 39.03 million against 38.3 million; forest-crop survival 54% against a national norm of 63.5%. Nationally, figures of about 16 million against an 18 million plan were given alongside.
    BES.media
  • Survival is not taken into account in reporting, according to the Prime Minister (8 October 2024).
    Informburo

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
Original estimate for the programme (KZT 60 bn akimats, KZT 22 bn national budget)82bn
Window: 2021–2025
Allocated for forest crops (Ministry of Ecology)> 36bn
Window: 2021–2025
Spent on tree planting in 2021 (KZT 7.2 bn local, KZT 4.6 bn national)12bn
Window: 2021
Regional akimats: nursery reconstruction> 1bn
Window: since 2024

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: KZT · Window: 2021–2025; mixed, see each line. Figures cover different periods and are not compared as a ratio. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • kz-ministry-of-ecology (4 February 2025; 2025): Vice-Minister Zhomart Aliev said the Ministry's analysis was finding discrepancies with statistics in some regions and that work was being carried out; Minister Yerlan Nysanbayev said the target can be fulfilled provided funding is sufficient. · NUR.KZ
  • kazakhstan-government (8 October 2024): Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said he did not yet see quality, that survival is not taken into account in reporting, and that padded figures and false reporting must be stopped and punished. · Informburo

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Survival by planting year
45.3% / 35.1% / 31.2% / 50.5%
2021 / 2022 / 2023 / 2024, Ministry of Ecology; launch target 65%
Trees planted, as reported
970 million → 1.36 billion
Prime Minister, October 2024; Ministry, 2025 (743 million seedlings plus 640 million seeds)
Dried Aral Sea bed
20–25%
Survival expected
West Kazakhstan forest-crop survival
54%
National norm 63.5% (Supreme Audit Chamber)

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No court case

Nature

  • Disputed Whether reported plantings match what was planted

Court

Accounts

Record

  • None on record None on record: a criminal case on tree-planting reporting; Deputy Bazarbek said on 4 February 2025 that none had been opened.
  • None on record None on record: survival norms for plantings in settlements (Supreme Audit Chamber, as relayed by BES.media).
  • Not measured Not measured: survival is not taken into account in reporting, according to the Prime Minister (8 October 2024).
  • Unclear None on record: spending amounts in the BES.media summary of the Supreme Audit Chamber conclusion of 13 October 2026.

Did the harm stop?

None on record.

Who paid?

Akimats and the national budget fund the planting: the Ministry of Ecology reports more than KZT 36 bn allocated for forest crops in 2021–2025, against an original estimate of KZT 82 bn.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations— Communities and civil society— Researchers

Government and regulators

Press and investigations

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Law and courts

Arbitration
A private dispute process in which an appointed arbitrator, instead of a court, decides the case.
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