IMF whale-value paper and Baffinland narwhal pilot
- International bodies International expert working group: Named ship traffic as the most likely cause.
- Communities and civil society Pond Inlet (Mittimatalik) Hunters and Trappers Organization: Its president linked the decline to the mine.
- Company or project Baffinland Iron Mines: Pointed to ice conditions and narwhal moving to another area, and listed killer whales and pile driving as possible causes.
A December 2019 article in the IMF's magazine valued an average great whale at more than $2 million. Two of its authors later launched a narwhal pilot in the Canadian Arctic with an iron-ore mining company as a partner; no whale carbon credit had been sold by October 2026.
None found in the sources reviewed; no amounts have been published for the pilot.
Status As of October 2026: no whale carbon credit issued or sold in the sources reviewed; the pilot's status after 2022 not found.
- Narwhal in Eclipse Sound — Counts fell from more than 20,000 (2004) to 2,595 (2021); the cause is contested.
What happened
In December 2019 the IMF's Finance & Development magazine published “Nature's Solution to Climate Change” by Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Connel Fullenkamp and Sena Oztosun. As rendered online, the article gave a “conservative estimate” of more than $2 million as the value of the average great whale and “easily over $1 trillion” for the current stock of great whales. It said each great whale sequesters 33 tonnes of CO2 on average, compared with up to 48 pounds a year for a tree. The valuation combined the present value of the carbon a whale sequesters over its lifetime with fishery enhancement and ecotourism. The fetched text did not state the discount rate or the carbon price used.
The article proposed “incentives, subsidies, or compensation” for countries, businesses and individuals that bear costs from whale protection, through a mechanism modelled on forest-carbon schemes, with compensation for shipping firms that reroute. It said this would be worth about $13 per person a year, to subsidise whales capturing 1.7 billion tonnes of CO2 a year at restored numbers. National Geographic reported that the IMF analysis was not peer-reviewed and was hypothetical.
In June 2022 Whale Seeker, a Montreal company that uses artificial intelligence to detect whales, announced the Whale Carbon Plus Project, started by economists Chami and Fullenkamp and run through Blue Green Future. The pilot species was the narwhal. Baffinland Iron Mines supplied four years of aerial images and Fisheries and Oceans Canada supplied data. The announced design was that investors would buy whale carbon-sequestration rights “similar to a bond” and be paid in carbon credits, with income going to Indigenous and local communities and conservation groups. The stated aim was to sell verified carbon and biodiversity credits within two years. No amounts were published.
Baffinland operates the Mary River iron mine, whose ore ships pass through Eclipse Sound, narwhal habitat. Counts in the pilot area fell from more than 20,000 narwhal (Fisheries and Oceans Canada estimate, 2004) and more than 12,000 (2016) to 9,931 in 2019, 5,019 in 2020 and 2,595 in 2021 (Baffinland's own counts for 2019 to 2021). An international expert working group named ship traffic as the most likely cause. Baffinland pointed to ice conditions and narwhal moving to another area, and listed killer whales and pile driving as other possible causes. The Pond Inlet hunters' organisation linked the decline to the mine. The cause remains contested.
Scientists criticised the valuation. In March 2023 Pearson and nine co-authors wrote in Trends in Ecology & Evolution that the scientific support for it was lacking. A December 2022 Bloomberg report, a 2023 Frontiers in Marine Science paper and other coverage questioned whether whale carbon could be measured well enough for a credit market. The sources reviewed in October 2026 found no whale carbon credit issued, sold or bought. In November 2024 Indigenous representatives at the UN biodiversity summit in Cali rejected whale offset credits.
- 2010Pershing and colleagues publish the paper from which the whale-credit idea originates: rebuilding whale populations could capture about 160,000 t of carbon a year more than the current 28,000 t (as summarised in the sources reviewed).
- 2019December: IMF Finance & Development publishes the whale-value article. Nautilus later reports that Chami founded Blue Green Future in 2019 while at the IMF.
- 2020Baffinland's own count in Eclipse Sound falls from 9,931 narwhal (2019) to 5,019.
- 2021Baffinland's own count: 2,595 narwhal.
- 2022June: Whale Carbon Plus Project announced with a narwhal pilot; December: Bloomberg reports scientists' objections and no credits sold.
- 2023March: Pearson et al. published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution; Meynecke et al. in Frontiers in Marine Science; April: Scientific American feature; Chami retires from the IMF after 25 years.
- 2024November: Indigenous representatives at the UN biodiversity summit in Cali reject whale offset credits.
- 2026October: no whale carbon credit found issued, sold or bought in the sources reviewed.
What was said
“Conservative estimate: value of the average great whale is more than $2 million”
“easily over $1 trillion for the current stock of great whales.”
“As the authors of several foundational papers cited in these reports, we feel the scientific support for this valuation is lacking.”
“might be too little to meaningfully alter the course of climate change.”
“not ready to make that leap from whale carbon to climate change policy.”
“We need to make sure … it's based on really sound, quantifiable science.”
“We simply don't have the time to get it 100% right”
“we can use minimum estimates, as we did, and give uncertainty ranges”
“incredible project collaborator”
“broadly unchanged”
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
Named ship traffic as the most likely cause.
Its president linked the decline to the mine.
Pointed to ice conditions and narwhal moving to another area, and listed killer whales and pile driving as possible causes.
Estimated the average great whale at more than $2 million and the stock at more than $1 trillion.
IMF Finance & DevelopmentWrote that the scientific support for the valuation was lacking.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution 38(3):238–249 (Pearson et al.)Wrote that the amount of carbon sequestered might be too little to meaningfully alter the course of climate change.
Frontiers in Marine Science 10 (Meynecke et al.)Said there was no time to get it 100% right and that minimum estimates with uncertainty ranges could be used.
Bloomberg, republished by The PeninsulaHow it looked
Shown
- A value for an average great whale of more than $2 million and for the whale stock of more than $1 trillion, with 33 tonnes of CO2 sequestered per whale on average.IMF Finance & Development article · IMF Finance & Development
- A proposal to pay those who bear the costs of whale protection, worth about $13 per person a year.IMF Finance & Development article · IMF Finance & Development
- A pilot in which investors would buy whale carbon-sequestration rights “similar to a bond” and be paid in carbon credits, with the aim of selling verified carbon and biodiversity credits within two years.Whale Carbon Plus Project announcement · PR.com
- Baffinland described as a partner supplying aerial images and as an “incredible project collaborator”.Baffinland · Baffinland blog
Recorded
- No whale carbon credit issued or sold was found anywhere; Bloomberg reported none in December 2022.
- The Whale Carbon Plus Project published no amounts.
- Pearson et al. (2023) listed five concerns about the valuation and its underlying assumptions.
- An estimate from the cited figures: whale-fall carbon of about 62,000 t C a year at full recovery is about 227,000 t CO2 a year, against about 37 Gt CO2 a year of fossil emissions, or about 0.0006% (estimate).
- Hannah Ritchie's 2025 calculation put the contribution at 225,000 to 1.5 million t CO2 a year, or 0.006% to 0.04% of global annual emissions.
- A 2023 compilation from Griffith University gave about 62,000 t of carbon a year from the carcasses of fully recovered whale populations, against about 300 million t a year of permanent carbon storage by the ocean as a whole.
- Pearson told Bloomberg that baleen whales store about 2 million t of carbon, which she equated with the emissions of about 435,000 cars, and that whale falls sequester about 60,000 t of carbon.
- Nautilus reported that Chami founded Blue Green Future in 2019 while at the IMF; a scientific paper's competing-interest statement lists Cosimano as a founder.
- Chami retired from the IMF in 2023 after 25 years. In 2023 he said that without putting a dollar figure on it no one would have listened (paraphrase).
- National Geographic wrote that the IMF analysis was not peer-reviewed and was hypothetical, and that Chami's aim was to reach policymakers who did not believe in saving animals for their own sake (paraphrase).
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- Ralph Chami (co-author of the IMF article; Whale Carbon Plus Project) (December 2022): Said “We simply don't have the time to get it 100% right” and that minimum estimates with uncertainty ranges could be used. · Bloomberg, republished by The Peninsula
- Connel Fullenkamp (co-author; Whale Carbon Plus Project) (April 2023): Said the project does not seek ownership of wild animals, only of the services they provide (paraphrase). · Scientific American
- Baffinland Iron Mines (2022 to 2023): Described itself as an “incredible project collaborator”; attributed the narwhal decline to ice conditions and narwhal moving to another area, and listed killer whales and pile driving as other possible causes. · Baffinland blog
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Nature
- Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
- Disputed Why did narwhal numbers fall in the pilot area?
Court
- None on record No court case on record.
Accounts
- Disputed Is there scientific support for valuing a whale at more than $2 million?
Record
- None on record The discount rate and the carbon price used to reach the $2 million figure: not stated in the article text the researcher fetched.
- None on record How much money the pilot raised or planned to raise: no amounts have been published.
- Unclear Whether Blue Green Future is the same company as Blue Green World, and what has happened to the whale carbon project since 2022: not known.
- Disputed Who founded Blue Green Future: sources differ (Chami and Nieburg; Cosimano and Nieburg; Fullenkamp).
- Disputed Why narwhal numbers fell in Eclipse Sound: the working group, the hunters' organisation and the company give different causes.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: that Verra advises the project; that Chami co-founded Rebalance Earth, which sells “ecosystem tokens” and “nature credits” starting with Gabon forest elephants (company material, search snippets).
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: Baffinland's 2022 count of 4,592 narwhal and a 95% confidence interval of 1,369 to 4,919 for 2021; a combined Admiralty Inlet and Eclipse Sound stock of 75,177 in 2021 against 36,044 in 2020; a February 2023 working-group finding that shipping was “by far the most likely cause”.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: Whale Seeker funding of $740K over four rounds, including a C$0.62M grant from Fisheries and Oceans Canada on 29 May 2024, not shown to be tied to the pilot.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: a claim that 41 countries opposed whale offsets at the 2024 UN biodiversity summit (source unclear).
Did the harm stop?
The sources reviewed record no change in shipping or in the pilot after 2022; the status of the pilot is not known.
Who paid?
No payments were made, so no payer is recorded. The IMF article proposed that costs fall on taxpayers (about $13 per person a year) and that shipping companies be compensated for rerouting.
Sources
Company or project
- Baffinland to monitor and protect whales in innovative new carbon capture projectBaffinland blog · 2022-06
- Whale Carbon Plus Project press releasePR.com · 2022-06-03
Press and investigations
- Can putting a price on a whale save the environment?Scientific American · 2023-04-24
- Scientists to carbon markets: don't monetize the whales (Bloomberg, via The Peninsula)Bloomberg, republished by The Peninsula · 2022-12-15
- How much is the ocean worth?Nautilus · 2022-05-11
- What a living whale is worth in the fight against climate changeNPR, via HPPR · 2023-05-19
Researchers
- Whales in the carbon cycle: can recovery remove carbon dioxide?Trends in Ecology & Evolution 38(3):238–249 (Pearson et al.) · 2023-03
- Do whales really increase the oceanic removal of atmospheric carbon? (abstract)Frontiers in Marine Science 10 (Meynecke et al.) · 2023
- Frontiers in Climate article (15 April 2022), cited for a competing-interest statementFrontiers in Climate · 2022-04-15
International bodies
- Nature's Solution to Climate ChangeIMF Finance & Development · 2019-12
Connected cases
- Dominica passes law for sperm whale reserve; carbon claim has no credit scheme Dominica · 2023–2025
- Baffinland Iron Mines (Company) — here: Mine operator; pilot partner supplying aerial images; there: Named partner in the whale carbon project; operates the Mary River mine
- Whale Seeker (Company) — here: AI whale-detection company; announced the pilot; there: Montreal company that announced the Whale Carbon Plus project in June 2022
- Blue Green Future (Company) — here: Company through which the project is run; there: Company linked to the whale carbon proposal; founders named inconsistently in sources
- Kiribati PIPA opened to fishing Kiribati · 2015–2025
- International Monetary Fund (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the whale-value article; the authors' employer when it was published; there: Reported fisheries share of GDP
- Newfoundland and Labrador community resettlement programmes Canada · 1954–2025
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Public authority) — here: Pilot partner supplying data; there: Federal fisheries department; sets the northern cod quota
- Northern cod collapse, reopening and Little Bay Islands (Newfoundland) Canada · 1992–2025
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Public authority) — here: Pilot partner supplying data; there: Sets the northern cod total allowable catch
- Pakistan cancels five independent power contracts amid capacity-payment costs Pakistan · 2024–2025
- International Monetary Fund (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the whale-value article; the authors' employer when it was published; there: Pressure behind the terminations
- Whale oil, kerosene and the 1986 whaling moratorium International · 1859–2022
- International Monetary Fund (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the whale-value article; the authors' employer when it was published; there: Economists' 2019 valuation of a whale
- World Bank US$600m farm loan coincided with a 90% fall in farm support Turkey · 2001–2003
- International Monetary Fund (International organisation) — here: Publisher of the whale-value article; the authors' employer when it was published; there: Letter of intent on the sugar beet quota (May 2001)