Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Finance, funds and markets · China · 1999–2026

China's Grain for Green (Sloping Land Conversion) Programme

Nature's voice · report
More than; China Daily gives $84 billion; statement of February 2023 570 billion yuan were paid out in my name. The measurements of what reached me differ.
Did nature suffer? Not measured. Accounts differ ↓
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 1 not measured · 4 disputed · 2 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
How much land the programme has converted
  • Government and regulators National Forestry and Grassland Administration (white paper, 2020): 34.33 million hectares of farmland converted to forest or grassland over two decades. CGTN
  • Government and regulators National Forestry and Grassland Administration (release, 2023): Two projects returning 14.2 million hectares of farmland to forests and grasslands since 1999. China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release
  • Researchers Zhang et al., Lincoln Institute working paper (2024): About 109,498 km2 of cropland converted to forest and about 43,963 km2 to grassland between 2001 and 2020, offset by reverse conversions; net cropland-to-forest change almost negligible. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Whether further revegetation on the Loess Plateau is sustainable
  • Researchers Feng et al. (2016): Net primary productivity is already close to the estimated water-supply limit of 400 ± 5 g C m-2 yr-1. Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Researchers Ge et al. (2020): Revegetation reduced runoff and soil moisture; the authors caution against further revegetation. Copernicus Publications
  • Government and regulators National Forestry and Grassland Administration (white paper, 2020): Valued the programme's ecological benefits at 1.38 trillion yuan and reported forest coverage in key construction areas up 4 percentage points on average. CGTN

China's national programme, begun in 1999, pays farmers to convert sloping cropland to trees and grass. The National Forestry and Grassland Administration reported more than 570 billion yuan of central investment (February 2023) and, in 2020, 34.33 million hectares converted; peer-reviewed studies report a small forest-cover effect, lower runoff and soil moisture, and a Loess Plateau close to its water limit.

more than 570 billion yuanCentral government investment in the programme since 1999, as stated by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration
China Daily, 4 February 2023, citing an NFGA release; the same release gives 14.2 million hectares returned to forests and grasslands. A 30 June 2020 white paper gave 517.4 billion yuan and 34.33 million hectares.

Status As of February 2023 (latest NFGA release in the sources): NFGA reported two projects since 1999 with more than 570 billion yuan of central investment; peer-reviewed studies report a small forest-cover effect and water limits on the Loess Plateau.

What?
A national programme paying farmers to convert sloping cropland to trees and grass, launched in 1999. Watershed Markets (IIED)
Where?
25 provincial-level regions, with the Loess Plateau and the Yangtze and Yellow River basins as focus areas. China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release
When?
Pilot 1999; full implementation 2002; white paper June 2020; NFGA release February 2023. Watershed Markets (IIED)
Who?
Gained
  • Participating rural households — About 41 million households and 158 million individuals participated or benefited; 9,000 yuan subsidy per participating household; income up 14.7% (NFGA white paper, 2020) CGTN
Lost
None on record
Harmed
Why?
To control soil erosion and sediment entering the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, stop desertification and improve farmers' living conditions (case study). Watershed Markets (IIED)
How?
Cash, grain and planting subsidies paid to farmers for five years (production trees) or eight years (protection trees); central government funding. Watershed Markets (IIED)
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

China's Grain for Green programme, also called the Sloping Land Conversion Programme, began as a pilot in 1999 and reached full implementation in 2002, following major flooding in 1998, according to a case study hosted by Watershed Markets (IIED) that carries no named author. It aims to control soil erosion and sediment entering the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, stop desertification and improve living conditions for poor farmers. The case study records cash payments of 417 yuan per hectare per year in the Yangtze basin and 290 yuan in the Yellow River basin, a one-off planting subsidy of 750 yuan, and grain payments, for five years for production trees and eight years for protection trees.

The National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA) published two sets of national totals. A white paper released on 30 June 2020, reported by CGTN, stated that central authorities had provided 517.4 billion yuan and that 34.33 million hectares of farmland had been converted to forest or grassland over two decades, with ecological benefits valued at 1.38 trillion yuan, about 41 million rural households and 158 million individuals participating or benefiting, a 9,000 yuan subsidy per participating household and a 14.7% rise in per capita disposable income of enrolled rural households. An NFGA release reported by China Daily on 4 February 2023 stated that "Since 1999, China has launched two projects returning 14.2 million hectares of farmland to forests and grasslands", with the central government "investing more than 570 billion yuan", and that the conversion "has contributed more than 4 percent to the growth of global green areas". The sources reviewed do not reconcile the 34.33 million and 14.2 million hectare figures.

Peer-reviewed studies report mixed results. Fu and colleagues (Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2019) used GIS data for 409 counties in four provinces from 1988 to 2008 and found "a small but significant treatment impact on increasing the total forest cover", unequal across forest types. Feng and colleagues (Nature Climate Change, 2016) found that on the Loess Plateau, where the programme has operated since 1999, new planting increased net primary productivity and evapotranspiration and reduced the share of precipitation leaving as river runoff, and that "NPP in this region is found to be already close to this limit" of water supply. Ge and colleagues (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2020) found that revegetation since the programme began had increased evapotranspiration and reduced runoff and soil moisture, and cautioned against further revegetation; they noted their results apply to revegetation generally and should not be read directly as the programme's impact.

A June 2024 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy working paper (not peer-reviewed) used MODIS satellite data for 2001-2020 and found that about 109,498 km2 of cropland was converted to forest and about 43,963 km2 to grassland, offset by about 104,402 km2 of forest and about 109,042 km2 of grassland converted back to cropland, leaving the net cropland-to-forest change almost negligible; it reported that only 37% of land converted from cropland to forest in 2001 was still forest 18 years later. The Watershed Markets case study reported that silt run-off was 22-24% lower on converted land than on comparable farmland in Tianquan County, and that in Qingjian County about 100 trees survived out of over 400,000 planted. Ge et al. (2020) cite planned further investment of "around USD 33.9 billion from China through to 2050".

  1. 1998Major flooding precedes the programme (case study)
  2. 1999Pilot begins; programme launched across 25 provincial-level regions
  3. 2002Full implementation begins (case study)
  4. 2016Feng et al. publish a Nature Climate Change study of Loess Plateau revegetation and water limits
  5. 2019Fu et al. publish a county-level study of the programme's effect on forest cover
  6. 2020NFGA white paper (30 June): 517.4 billion yuan, 34.33 million hectares; Ge et al. publish a Loess Plateau water-balance study (4 February)
  7. 2023NFGA release (reported 4 February): more than 570 billion yuan, 14.2 million hectares across two projects
  8. 2024Lincoln Institute working paper on land-use change, 2001-2020 (June)

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

“Since 1999, China has launched two projects returning 14.2 million hectares of farmland to forests and grasslands”

“the central government investing more than 570 billion yuan ($84 billion) to the cause”

“has contributed more than 4 percent to the growth of global green areas”

“found a small but significant treatment impact on increasing the total forest cover”

“NPP in this region is found to be already close to this limit.”

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

How much land the programme has converted
Government and regulators
National Forestry and Grassland Administration (white paper, 2020)

34.33 million hectares of farmland converted to forest or grassland over two decades.

CGTN
Government and regulators
National Forestry and Grassland Administration (release, 2023)

Two projects returning 14.2 million hectares of farmland to forests and grasslands since 1999.

China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release
Researchers
Zhang et al., Lincoln Institute working paper (2024)

About 109,498 km2 of cropland converted to forest and about 43,963 km2 to grassland between 2001 and 2020, offset by reverse conversions; net cropland-to-forest change almost negligible.

Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Whether further revegetation on the Loess Plateau is sustainable
Researchers
Feng et al. (2016)

Net primary productivity is already close to the estimated water-supply limit of 400 ± 5 g C m-2 yr-1.

Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Researchers
Ge et al. (2020)

Revegetation reduced runoff and soil moisture; the authors caution against further revegetation.

Copernicus Publications
Government and regulators
National Forestry and Grassland Administration (white paper, 2020)

Valued the programme's ecological benefits at 1.38 trillion yuan and reported forest coverage in key construction areas up 4 percentage points on average.

CGTN

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • Programme described as returning 14.2 million hectares of farmland to forests and grasslands, with more than 570 billion yuan of central investment and a contribution of more than 4 percent to global greening.
    National Forestry and Grassland Administration, via China Daily (4 February 2023) · China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release
  • Programme described as converting 34.33 million hectares, with 1.38 trillion yuan of ecological benefits and a 14.7% rise in participating households' per capita income.
    National Forestry and Grassland Administration white paper, via CGTN (2 July 2020) · CGTN

Recorded

  • Fu et al. (2019): a small but significant increase in total forest cover across 409 counties, unequal across forest types.
    University of Rhode Island Digital Commons
  • Feng et al. (2016): revegetation on the Loess Plateau reduced the share of precipitation leaving as river runoff and brought net primary productivity close to an estimated water limit.
    Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Ge et al. (2020): revegetation since the programme began increased evapotranspiration and reduced runoff and soil moisture on the Loess Plateau.
    Copernicus Publications
  • Lincoln Institute working paper (2024, not peer-reviewed): conversions to forest and grassland were offset by reverse conversions; net cropland-to-forest change almost negligible.
    Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
  • Watershed Markets case study: silt run-off 22-24% lower on converted land than comparable farmland in Tianquan County; about 100 trees survived of over 400,000 planted in Qingjian County.
    Watershed Markets (IIED)
  • No national tree-survival rate from an independent field audit appears in the sources reviewed.

In nature's name

What was promised in nature's name, the money that moved, and what was measured.

Promised

Money moved in nature's name

WhatKindAmountPeriod
Central government investment in the programme since 1999, two projects
Government of China (central government)
China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release		Paid out¥570bnsince 1999
Funds provided by central authorities, as stated in the white paper
Government of China (central authorities)
CGTN		Paid out¥517.4bnsince 1999 (white paper of 30 June 2020)
Central government provision
Government of China (central government)
Watershed Markets (IIED)		Paid out¥103bn1999-2005
Total budget
Government of China
Watershed Markets (IIED)		Budget¥350bn2000-2010
Subsidy per participating household
Government of China
CGTN		Subsidy¥0.01mwhite paper of 30 June 2020
Further investment planned through to 2050, as cited by Ge et al.
Government of China
Copernicus Publications		Pledged$33.9bnto 2050

What was measured

Measurements differ

Independent measurements conflict. Fu et al. (2019) found a small but significant forest-cover effect; Feng et al. (2016) and Ge et al. (2020) found that revegetation on the Loess Plateau increased evapotranspiration, reduced runoff and soil moisture and approached a water limit; a 2024 working paper using satellite data found conversions offset by reverse conversions. The NFGA area and benefit figures (34.33 million hectares; 14.2 million hectares; 1.38 trillion yuan) are the administering agency's own statements, not independent measurements.

Total forest cover effect, 409 counties, 1988-2008
small but significant increase
Fu et al. (2019) University of Rhode Island Digital Commons
Loess Plateau runoff and soil moisture after revegetation
reduced
Ge et al. (2020); results apply to revegetation generally Copernicus Publications
Loess Plateau productivity relative to the water limit
already close to the limit
Feng et al. (2016) Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Converted cropland still forest after 18 years
37%
Lincoln Institute working paper (2024, not peer-reviewed) Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Findings on record

  • Peer-reviewed study Fu, Uchida, Shah and Deng (Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy) (2019) · Impact of the Grain for Green program on forest cover in China, 8(3): “found a small but significant treatment impact on increasing the total forest cover” University of Rhode Island Digital Commons
  • Peer-reviewed study Ge, Pitman, Guo, Zan and Fu (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences) (2020-02-04) · Impact of revegetation of the Loess Plateau of China on the regional growing season water balance, 24: 515-533 Copernicus Publications
  • Peer-reviewed study Feng et al. (Nature Climate Change) (2016) · Revegetation in China's Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits, 6(11): 1019-1022: “NPP in this region is found to be already close to this limit.” Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: CNY · Window: 1999-2023. All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • National Forestry and Grassland Administration (30 June 2020; February 2023): Reported 517.4 billion yuan of central funds and 34.33 million hectares converted (white paper, 30 June 2020) and more than 570 billion yuan and 14.2 million hectares across two projects (release, February 2023). · China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release
  • Government of China (30 June 2020): Reported that ecological benefits of the programme were valued at 1.38 trillion yuan and that about 41 million rural households participated or benefited (white paper, 2020). · CGTN

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Area converted, NFGA white paper (2020)
34.33 million hectares
Farmland converted to forest or grassland over two decades, as stated by NFGA
Area returned to forests and grasslands, NFGA release (2023)
14.2 million hectares
Across two projects since 1999, as stated by NFGA
Total forest cover effect, 409 counties, 1988-2008
small but significant increase
Fu et al. (2019)
Converted cropland still forest after 18 years
37%
Lincoln Institute working paper (2024), land converted in 2001
Loess Plateau net primary productivity
close to the estimated water limit
Feng et al. (2016): threshold of 400 ± 5 g C m-2 yr-1

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
Peer-reviewed findingBenefit not measured

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.
  • Disputed How much land the programme has converted
  • Disputed Whether further revegetation on the Loess Plateau is sustainable

Record

  • Disputed Unclear: the area converted. NFGA gave 34.33 million hectares (white paper, 30 June 2020) and 14.2 million hectares across two projects (release reported 4 February 2023); the sources reviewed do not explain the difference.
  • Unclear Unclear: central investment totals. NFGA gave 517.4 billion yuan (2020) and more than 570 billion yuan (2023); a case study gives 103 billion yuan provided in 1999-2005 and a 350 billion yuan budget for 2000-2010 without stating the source of each.
  • None on record None on record: a national tree-survival rate from an independent field audit; the Watershed Markets case study reports one county (Qingjian, about 100 trees surviving of over 400,000 planted) without a date.
  • Unclear Unclear: whether the programme is ongoing or has ended; the NFGA release of February 2023 describes two projects since 1999 and a 2024 working paper refers to the programme and its conclusion.
  • Disputed Unconfirmed: the case study's line 'Total investment is US$4.3 million per year' conflicts with its own larger totals and was not used.

Did the harm stop?

Feng et al. (2016) and Ge et al. (2020) report that revegetation on the Loess Plateau reduced runoff and soil moisture and brought productivity near an estimated water limit; the sources reviewed do not report that this effect has stopped.

Who paid?

The Chinese central government: more than 570 billion yuan since 1999 (NFGA, February 2023) and 517.4 billion yuan (NFGA white paper, 2020). Participating households received subsidies, including 9,000 yuan per household according to the 2020 white paper.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts— Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers✓ International bodies

Government and regulators

  1. Farmland conversion contributes to global greening (Li Hongyang)
    China Daily, citing a National Forestry and Grassland Administration release · 2023-02-04

Communities and civil society

Researchers

International bodies

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.

Carbon and conservation finance

Offset
Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.
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