Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Agriculture, livestock and food · Africa · 2006–2026

Evaluations find AGRA missed its headline goal; Yara buys Italian organic fertiliser firm

Short record: the main facts, with sources. A full case file has not been prepared.

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
What the record lacks: 3 none on record · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 1 disputed See the gaps

AGRA, largely funded by the Gates Foundation, set a 2020 goal of doubling yields and incomes for 30 million households; evaluations disagree on the outcome. Yara, 36.2% owned by the Norwegian state, agreed in 2023 to buy an Italian organic fertiliser business.

What?
AGRA, funded largely by the Gates Foundation, did not meet its headline goal according to a Gates-commissioned evaluation; Yara has bought organic fertiliser businesses. Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute
Where?
Africa, across AGRA's focus countries; Yara's state owner is Norway
When?
2006 to 2026; the 2020 goal and the 2023 acquisition
Who?
Gained
  • Yara — Agreed in 2023 to acquire Agribios' organic-based fertiliser business; also bought Ecolan for its regenerative offer Yara
  • Seed companies and input dealers — Strengthened by seed reforms, per the sources reviewed
Lost
  • Public accountability for the programme — Weakened, according to Food Tank (2022) Food Tank
Harmed
  • Undernourished people in AGRA's focus countries — Hungry people rose 30% in 13 focus countries (False Promises, 2020); Tufts reports a 58% rise in undernourished people over 20 years to about 150 million US Right to Know
Why?
Not stated in the sources reviewed.
How?
The donor set the agenda and the target; an evaluation was commissioned by the foundation; input markets grew through seed reform.
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

The Gates Foundation gave AGRA $661 million up to 2018, about two-thirds of its donations, and a further $200 million over five years from 2022; the US government gave $90 million, according to a Tufts review published in August 2026.

The 2020 False Promises report found that hungry people rose 30% in 13 focus countries and that maize yields rose 29% in 12 years against a 100% target; AGRA said the report was not peer reviewed.

A Gates-commissioned evaluation in 2021 concluded that AGRA did not meet its headline goal.

In December 2023 Yara agreed to acquire the organic-based fertiliser business of Italy's Agribios, according to Yara.

    In court and with insurers

    Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

    Lawsuits and rulings

    No court case on record. No court has ruled on this case.

    Insurers

    No insurer decision on record.

    What we don't know

    Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

    Nature

    • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

    Record

    • Insufficient Reported but not verified: that the foundation sought control of the food supply or planned synthetic food. No supporting document is found in the sources reviewed.
    • None on record No direct link between AGRA and carbon credits was found in the sources reviewed.
    • None on record The original Gates climate note, and the NYT and Snopes pages, could not be checked.
    • Disputed The figures conflict: AGRA says outputs and farm incomes doubled, while Tufts reports a 25% rise in its yield index over 20 years.
    • None on record The claim that maize yields rose in 3 of 6 countries in the 2021 evaluation is not linked to a source in the sources reviewed.

    Did the harm stop?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Who paid?

    Not stated in the sources reviewed.

    Sources

    Voices on record: ✓ Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society✓ Researchers

    Company or project

    Press and investigations

    Communities and civil society

    Researchers

    1. Tufts GDAE report on AGRA (August 2026)
      Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute · 2026-08

    Connected cases

    Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
    Terms used on this page

    Carbon and conservation finance

    Carbon credit
    A certificate representing one tonne of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) that a project says it reduced, avoided or removed. Buyers use credits to balance their own emissions in climate claims.
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