Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Carbon credits · Nepal · 2000–2026

Nepal forest carbon deals (World Bank ER-MR, LEAF)

Nature's voice · report
No measurement of the harm done to me here is on record.
Did nature suffer? Not measured.
Not on record
  • The record does not name which of my species, waters, soils or forests were harmed.
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 1 insufficient · 1 not measured · 2 disputed · 1 unclear See the gaps

Nepal received US$9.4 million from the World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility for 1.88 million tonnes of CO2 reductions in 2025, and has a LEAF Coalition agreement worth up to US$55 million. Studies of community forests report that benefits reached poorer and lower-caste households unevenly.

US$9.4 million for 1.88 MtPayment for emission reductions under the World Bank carbon fund
World Bank, November 2025.

Status As of November 2025: World Bank payment of US$9.4 million announced; LEAF agreement of up to US$55 million on record.

What?
Nepal was paid US$9.4 million for 1.88 Mt of forest emission reductions and signed a LEAF agreement of up to US$55 million. World Bank
Where?
Nepal. World Bank
When?
Payment announced November 2025. World Bank
Who?
Gained
  • Nepal's government and programme implementers — Payments under the carbon fund. World Bank
Lost
  • Dalit households and Kami blacksmiths — Little gain and exclusion from charcoal collection in nearly half of user groups.
Harmed
None on record
Why?
Payment for forest carbon under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility and the LEAF Coalition. World Bank
How?
Results-based payment for emission reductions measured under an ER-MR monitoring report. World Bank
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

In November 2025 the World Bank announced that Nepal would receive US$9.4 million from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility for 1.88 million tonnes of CO2 reductions. A reports of the monitoring report states that 61% of this came from carbon sequestration by afforestation; this was not verified from the report itself.

Nepal also has an agreement with the LEAF Coalition worth up to US$55 million. Credits under it can be used against Singapore's carbon tax and for aviation offsetting.

Nepal's community forests are managed by user groups. Studies in the sources reviewed report that the poorest households gained little: the poverty gain for Dalit households was statistically insignificant (p=0.532); blacksmith Kami households were excluded from charcoal collection in nearly half of user groups; and no Dalit women were among grantees in a REDD+ pilot.

Donor-funded programmes in the sector include MSFP (US$62 million), Hariyo Ban (about US$37 million in one source, US$29.9 million in another) and Forests for Prosperity (US$24 million, of which US$17.9 million was credit). Separately, a Kathmandu Post editorial of May 2025 said domestic timber was rotting while Nepal imported NPR 6–8 billion of timber a year.

  1. 2025World Bank announces US$9.4 million for 1.88 Mt under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (November); Kathmandu Post editorial on timber (27 May)
  2. 2025LEAF Coalition agreement of up to US$55 million on record

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

How much carbon revenue reaches communities?
International bodies
World Bank / programme

80% of carbon revenue to communities.

World Bank
Researchers
Studies cited

The 80% includes local governments and implementers; at most 70% is left for communities.

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • '1.88 Mt CO2 reduced'; '80% of carbon revenue to communities'.
    Programme presentation of the carbon payments

Recorded

  • The 80% share includes local governments and implementers; the share left for communities is at most 70%.
  • About 76% of timber sold in Nepal comes from private forests; community timber costs twice as much and rots.
  • Dalit households: poverty gain statistically insignificant (p=0.532).
  • Kami blacksmiths excluded from charcoal collection in nearly half of user groups.
  • No Dalit women among grantees in a REDD+ pilot.

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

  1. Outcome not on record
    Makwanpur illegal felling case
    Not stated · Criminal · Not stated → A district forest officer, user group managers and timber operators

    The sources reviewed record that a district forest officer, user group managers and timber operators were tried together for illegal felling; no outcome is stated.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Reductions paid for
1.88 Mt CO2
World Bank, November 2025
Share attributed to afforestation
61%
From a reports of the monitoring report; not verified

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.

Nature

  • Not measured Harm to nature: The record holds no measurement of harm to nature.

Court

  • Unclear Makwanpur illegal felling case: outcome not on record.

Accounts

  • Disputed How much carbon revenue reaches communities?

Record

  • Disputed Figures for Hariyo Ban differ between sources: about US$37 million and US$29.9 million; the World Bank blog gives conflicting figures.
  • Insufficient The 61% afforestation share was reported of the monitoring report: reported but not independently verified.
  • None on record The sources reviewed describe two series of figures for a share of benefit (39.6% and 46.08%) as not comparable.

Did the harm stop?

The sources reviewed do not say.

Who paid?

The sources reviewed report that poorer and lower-caste households received little of the benefit.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project✓ Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers

Press and investigations

  1. Timber trouble (editorial)
    The Kathmandu Post · 2025-05-27

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.

Carbon and conservation finance

Offset
Using carbon credits to balance emissions released elsewhere, so that a buyer can claim lower or zero net emissions.
REDD+
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation. A UN framework under which forest projects earn carbon credits for deforestation they say they prevented, measured against a projected baseline.