Who gains from saving nature
Ledger 1 : 33 — For each dollar financing nature-based solutions in 2023, about $33 financed activities harmful to nature. (UNEP)
Cases / Mining · Indonesia · 2023–2026

Indonesian nickel oversupply: BHP Nickel West suspension and the LME green contract

Nature's voice · report
My forest in the Morowali area has lost at least 75,000 hectares.
Did nature suffer? Yes. Harm is on record. Disputed
Recorded
  • More than 12 million tonnes of unpermitted slag and waste lie in the industrial park at Morowali, and 24 emission sources have no continuous monitoring.
  • A tailings embankment collapse in the park killed three workers; a furnace explosion killed 21.
  • At least 75,000 hectares of my forest were lost.
    Morowali-area forest loss; underlying source not given.
People
  • 21 people died.
    Furnace explosion in the largest industrial park; a tailings embankment collapse killed three more.
What the record lacks: 1 none on record · 2 insufficient · 2 disputed · 2 unclear See the gaps
Accounts of the harm differ
Is nickel produced with captive coal power low-carbon?
  • Researchers IEEFA: Three coal-based Indonesian producers had 57 to 70 t CO2 per tonne of nickel in 2023, against the 20 t low-carbon threshold the LME proposed. IEEFA
  • Standard-setters and registries London Metal Exchange: Declined a separate green nickel contract; its premium plan uses a 20 t CO2e threshold. Fastmarkets
  • Government and regulators Government of Indonesia: Presents the policy as downstreaming: process ore in the country and keep the value there.

Indonesia supplied about two thirds of global nickel mine output in 2025, much of it processed with captive coal power. Australian producers closed, BHP suspended Nickel West, and the London Metal Exchange declined a separate green nickel contract.

67%Indonesia's share of 2025 global nickel mine output
2.6 Mt of 3.9 Mt, USGS data as reported by Katadata Databoks.

Status As of April 2026: Indonesia at 67% of 2025 global nickel mine output; BHP Nickel West suspended; no separate LME green nickel contract; enforcement of the June 2025 environment-ministry findings unclear.

What?
Indonesian nickel output expanded, with captive coal power, as Australian producers closed, BHP suspended Nickel West and the LME declined a separate green nickel contract. Mining.com
Where?
Sulawesi and Maluku, Indonesia (IMIP, Morowali); Western Australia.
When?
2023 to 2026.
Who?
Gained
  • Indonesian nickel producers — Share of global nickel mine output of 67% in 2025 Katadata Databoks
Lost
  • BHP — Nickel West suspended with a $2.5 billion impairment Mining.com
  • Australian nickel producers — At least six projects closed; national output down 54% in 2025 Mining.com
Harmed
  • Forest and communities around the Indonesian industrial parks — At least 75,000 ha of forest loss and unpermitted waste (source for the forest figure not given)
Why?
Reporting describes a nickel price crash extending Indonesia's grip on supply. Mining.com
How?
Coal-fired captive power supports Indonesian smelting, with carbon intensity of 57 to 70 t CO2 per tonne of nickel, against an LME-proposed 20 t threshold. IEEFA
6 of 6 questions answered from the record

What happened

The record, in order.

According to USGS data reported by Katadata Databoks on 28 April 2026, Indonesia produced 2.6 million tonnes of the 3.9 million tonnes of global nickel mine output in 2025, 67%. Australia's output fell 54% and the Philippines' 24%.

Mining.com reported in 2024 that Indonesian oversupply had closed at least six Australian nickel projects and that BHP's Nickel West had been suspended with a $2.5 billion impairment. The sources reviewed do not give the date of the suspension.

Fastmarkets reported in October 2025 that the London Metal Exchange (LME) had declined to launch a separate green nickel contract and outlined a plan for sustainable base-metal premiums with a threshold of 20 tonnes of CO2e. One summary states that the exchange gave insufficient market interest as the reason.

IEEFA reported in October 2024 that three Indonesian producers using coal-based power had a carbon intensity of 57 to 70 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of nickel (2023 company data), against the 20-tonne low-carbon threshold the LME had proposed. Captive coal capacity in Indonesia stood at 19.3 GW in July 2025, up 4.49 GW in a year, about 80% of coal additions in the country, according to CREA and GEM.

Indonesia's Ministry of Environment reported in June 2025 that, at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), it had found more than 1,800 hectares of structures outside the environmental impact assessment, more than 12 million tonnes of unpermitted nickel slag and waste, and 24 emission sources without continuous monitoring. Whether sanctions were applied was unclear.

  1. 2023Captive coal capacity in the nickel regions begins to rise (2.25 times by 2025)
  2. 2024Mining.com reports at least six Australian nickel projects closed and BHP Nickel West suspended with a $2.5 billion impairment
  3. 2024October: IEEFA reports 57 to 70 t CO2 per tonne of nickel for three coal-based Indonesian producers
  4. 2025June: Indonesian Ministry of Environment reports findings at IMIP
  5. 2025October: Fastmarkets reports the LME plan for premiums with a 20 t CO2e threshold and no separate green nickel contract
  6. 202628 April: Katadata Databoks reports Indonesia at 67% of 2025 global nickel mine output; Australia down 54%

What was said

Claims, in the words of those who made them.

Where accounts differ

Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.

Is nickel produced with captive coal power low-carbon?
Researchers
IEEFA

Three coal-based Indonesian producers had 57 to 70 t CO2 per tonne of nickel in 2023, against the 20 t low-carbon threshold the LME proposed.

IEEFA
Standard-setters and registries
London Metal Exchange

Declined a separate green nickel contract; its premium plan uses a 20 t CO2e threshold.

Fastmarkets
Government and regulators
Government of Indonesia

Presents the policy as downstreaming: process ore in the country and keep the value there.

How much value stays in Indonesia?
Researchers
Celios (think tank)

Revenue lost through tax holidays is about 32 trillion rupiah.

Researchers
An economist critic of the policy

Indonesia keeps at most about 10% of nickel value added.

Government and regulators
Government of Indonesia

Nickel exports rose from about $6 billion in 2013 to about $30 billion in 2022.

How it looked

What was shown, beside what was recorded.

Shown

  • Downstreaming (hilirisasi): process the ore in the country and keep the value there
    Government of Indonesia

Recorded

  • Indonesia 2.6 Mt of 3.9 Mt global nickel mine output in 2025; Australia down 54%, Philippines down 24%.
    Katadata Databoks
  • At least six Australian nickel projects closed; BHP Nickel West suspended with a $2.5 billion impairment.
    Mining.com
  • Carbon intensity of three coal-based Indonesian producers: 57 to 70 t CO2 per tonne of nickel, against a 20 t proposed LME threshold.
    IEEFA
  • LME declined a separate green nickel contract and outlined a premium plan with a 20 t CO2e threshold.
    Fastmarkets
  • Indonesian Ministry of Environment found more than 1,800 ha of structures outside the impact assessment, more than 12 Mt of unpermitted slag and waste, and 24 unmonitored emission sources at IMIP.
  • Nickel use in Indonesia in 2025: 83% steel, 17% batteries.

Who gained

Money that reached nature, beside money that stayed elsewhere.

Reached nature or the ground

Not published
No figure published.

Gained elsewhere

Not totalled
Currency: · Window: . All figures cover the same period. * Estimate built from cited figures.

Responses on record

  • lme (October 2025): Declined to launch a separate green nickel contract and outlined a plan for sustainable base-metal premiums with a threshold of 20 t CO2e. · Fastmarkets
  • indonesia-klh (June 2025): Found more than 1,800 ha of structures outside the impact assessment, more than 12 Mt of unpermitted slag and waste and 24 unmonitored emission sources at IMIP.

In court and with insurers

Every proceeding and every insurer decision on record.

Lawsuits and rulings

  1. 2025-06–Outcome not on record
    Ministry of Environment findings at IMIP
    Ministry of Environment (KLH), Indonesia · Administrative · Ministry of Environment → IMIP industrial park

    The ministry found structures outside the impact assessment, unpermitted slag and waste, and unmonitored emission sources. Whether sanctions were applied is unclear.

  2. 2025-09–Ongoing
    Forest task force action against Weda Bay Nickel
    Indonesian forest task force · Administrative · Forest task force → Weda Bay Nickel

    The task force seized 148 ha of an unpermitted area of 444 ha; a penalty of 6.5 billion rupiah per hectare was set for nickel. Across 71 companies the penalties totalled 38.9 trillion rupiah.

Insurers

No insurer decision on record.

What nature saw

Outcomes measured on the ground, and nature's note.

Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.

Carbon intensity, coal-based Indonesian nickel
57-70 t CO2/t Ni
Three producers, 2023 company data (IEEFA); LME proposed low-carbon threshold 20 t
Forest loss, Morowali area
At least 75,000 ha
Underlying source not given
Unpermitted slag and waste at IMIP
More than 12 Mt
Indonesian Ministry of Environment, June 2025

What we don't know

Undisclosed, unproven, untried: recorded as data.
No independent ecological evaluation

Nature

  • Disputed Is nickel produced with captive coal power low-carbon?

Court

  • Unclear Ministry of Environment findings at IMIP: outcome not on record.

Accounts

  • Disputed How much value stays in Indonesia?

Record

  • Unclear Whether the Ministry of Environment findings at IMIP led to sanctions: unclear.
  • None on record Date of the BHP Nickel West suspension: the sources reviewed do not state it.
  • Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: a hydropower-based producer, Vale, had a carbon intensity of 28.7 t CO2 per tonne of nickel.
  • Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: the LME rejected the separate green contract on the ground that market interest was insufficient (summary of reporting).

Did the harm stop?

Not assessed in the sources reviewed.

Who paid?

Not established in the sources reviewed.

Sources

Voices on record: — Company or project— Government and regulators— Courts✓ Press and investigations✓ Communities and civil society— Researchers

Press and investigations

Communities and civil society

Connected cases

Related matters, and cases linked to this one through the same organisations, with the role each played in both.
Terms used on this page

Science and environment

Hectare (ha)
A unit of area equal to 10,000 square metres, about 2.5 acres. 100 hectares make one square kilometre.
Tailings and tailings dam
Tailings are the waste left after ore is processed; a tailings dam is the embankment that stores them as wet sludge.

Insurance

Captive insurer, self-insurance
A company covering its own risks, either directly or through an insurance company it owns.
Premium
The price paid for an insurance policy.

Places and local terms

Renova Foundation
The foundation set up after the 2015 Mariana dam collapse to carry out repairs and compensation on behalf of Samarco and its owners.
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