Northern cod collapse, reopening and Little Bay Islands (Newfoundland)
- Government and regulators Fisheries and Oceans Canada: Set a 18,000-tonne quota in 2024 and a 38,000-tonne total allowable catch in June 2025. Fisheries and Oceans Canada
- Communities and civil society Oceans North: Said the updated model changed how the stock is classified; the total stock estimate stayed similar; the stock sat outside the critical zone with a 29% probability of being in it. Oceans North
- Press and investigations Canadian Press (via Barchart): Reported that scientists questioned Ottawa more than doubling the cod catch. Barchart (Canadian Press)
- Researchers The Narwhal / The Conversation: The 2023 stock was about 12% of the 1960s biomass. The Narwhal
- Communities and civil society Oceans North: Recommended 15,300 tonnes for 2025. Barchart (Canadian Press)
- Communities and civil society Oceans North: The model was extended to the 1950s and a capelin index was added; the stock was placed outside the critical zone (29% probability of being in it); the estimate of total stock was similar. Oceans North
- Press and investigations The Narwhal / The Conversation: The stock was about 12% of its 1960s biomass in 2023. The Narwhal
Canada stopped the northern cod fishery on 2 July 1992 and reopened it commercially in 2024 after a stock-model update; the quota was raised in 2025. In between, the Newfoundland village of Little Bay Islands emptied and closed under a provincial resettlement programme.
Total allowable catch set by Fisheries and Oceans Canada; the 2023 stock was about 12% of the 1960s biomass (The Narwhal / The Conversation).
Status As of June 2025: northern cod fishery reopened in 2024 with a 38,000-tonne total allowable catch, which scientists questioned; Little Bay Islands formally closed at the end of 2019.
- Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — Calculated about CAD 3.8 million in savings over 20 years from relocating Little Bay Islands. The Globe and Mail (L. Jones)
- Fishing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador — Access to a commercial northern cod fishery again from June 2024. Global Seafood Alliance
- Residents of Little Bay Islands — The village fell from about 600 people to 38 by 2017 and closed at the end of 2019. The Globe and Mail (L. Jones)
- Fishing communities in Newfoundland and Labrador — The fishery was closed from 1992 to 2024; cod accounted for CAD 134 million of CAD 277 million in landed value in 1990. Heritage NL
- Northern cod — The 2023 stock was about 12% of the 1960s biomass. The Narwhal
What happened
Canada stopped the northern cod fishery on 2 July 1992. The ban lasted until 2024. In Newfoundland and Labrador the catch shifted to shellfish: in 1990 cod accounted for CAD 134 million of CAD 277 million in landed value; in 2002 crab accounted for CAD 229 million, shrimp CAD 172 million and groundfish CAD 62 million (Heritage NL).
Little Bay Islands, a fishing village in Notre Dame Bay, Newfoundland, had once had about 600 people, 11 shops, three churches, a school and a doctor; The Globe and Mail reported in 2017 that 38 people remained, most of them elderly. The fish-processing plant had closed in 2011. The sources reviewed date the community's decline to the 1992 ban.
Under the provincial resettlement policy, the province paid CAD 250,000 to 270,000 per household if the required share of residents agreed, and services such as electricity, school and health care were withdrawn after a community moved. The threshold was 90% under the 2016 policy and 75% under the 2021 policy. A vote in 2015 reached 89.47%, just under the 90% threshold; a later vote passed and the village was formally closed at the end of 2019. The province had calculated that relocating Little Bay Islands would save about CAD 3.8 million over 20 years.
In October 2023 the stock assessment was updated. According to Oceans North, the model was extended back to the 1950s and a capelin index was added; the stock was judged to be outside the critical zone, with a 29% probability of being in it, and the estimate of total stock was similar to before. The Narwhal / The Conversation reported that the stock was about 12% of its 1960s biomass in 2023. The commercial fishery reopened in 2024 with a quota of 18,000 tonnes. Global Seafood Alliance cited a 62–76% risk of the stock declining over 2024–2027. In June 2025 Fisheries and Oceans Canada raised the total allowable catch to 38,000 tonnes; the value of the 2024 catch was about CAD 37.5 million.
Oceans North recommended 15,300 tonnes for 2025, and the Canadian Press reported that scientists questioned Ottawa more than doubling the catch.
- 1990Cod accounts for CAD 134 million of CAD 277 million in Newfoundland and Labrador landed value (Heritage NL)
- 19922 July: Canada stops the northern cod fishery
- 2011Fish-processing plant in Little Bay Islands closes
- 2015Resettlement vote in Little Bay Islands reaches 89.47% against a 90% threshold
- 2016Provincial policy keeps a 90% threshold and sets 10-, 15- or 20-year cost-benefit tests
- 2017The Globe and Mail reports 38 residents remaining, from about 600 in earlier years
- 2019Little Bay Islands is formally closed (end of year)
- 2021Provincial policy lowers the threshold to 75% and fixes a 20-year calculation
- 2023October: updated stock model; stock judged outside the critical zone
- 2024June: commercial northern cod fishery reopens with an 18,000-tonne quota
- 202518 June: Fisheries and Oceans Canada raises the total allowable catch to 38,000 tonnes
What was said
Where accounts differ
Each party's account, side by side, with its source. The record does not settle these points; it shows them.
Set a 18,000-tonne quota in 2024 and a 38,000-tonne total allowable catch in June 2025.
Fisheries and Oceans CanadaSaid the updated model changed how the stock is classified; the total stock estimate stayed similar; the stock sat outside the critical zone with a 29% probability of being in it.
Oceans NorthReported that scientists questioned Ottawa more than doubling the cod catch.
Barchart (Canadian Press)The 2023 stock was about 12% of the 1960s biomass.
The NarwhalRecommended 15,300 tonnes for 2025.
Barchart (Canadian Press)The model was extended to the 1950s and a capelin index was added; the stock was placed outside the critical zone (29% probability of being in it); the estimate of total stock was similar.
Oceans NorthThe stock was about 12% of its 1960s biomass in 2023.
The NarwhalHow it looked
Shown
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada announced a rise in the northern cod total allowable catch from 18,000 to 38,000 tonnes; the release headline calls it a sustainable increase.Fisheries and Oceans Canada · Fisheries and Oceans Canada
- The province describes resettlement as a programme in which communities request relocation and receive a payment per household.Government of Newfoundland and Labrador · Government of Newfoundland and Labrador
- The stock was placed outside the critical zone after the 2023 model update.Canadian fisheries authorities, as described by Oceans North · Oceans North
Recorded
- The 2023 northern cod stock was about 12% of the 1960s biomass.
- The 2023 update extended the model back to the 1950s and added a capelin index; Oceans North reported that the stock was then outside the critical zone, with a 29% probability of being in it, while the total stock estimate stayed similar.
- The 2024 quota was 18,000 tonnes and the 2025 total allowable catch is 38,000 tonnes; the 2024 catch was valued at about CAD 37.5 million.
- The province's current payment is CAD 250,000, 260,000 or 270,000 per household depending on its size; an adult permanent resident without property receives CAD 10,000; seasonal-home owners receive nothing.
- The province calculated a saving of about CAD 3.8 million over 20 years from relocating Little Bay Islands.
- Global Seafood Alliance cited a 62–76% risk of the stock declining over 2024–2027.
- Oceans North recommended 15,300 tonnes for 2025.
- In 1990 cod accounted for CAD 134 million of CAD 277 million in Newfoundland and Labrador landed value; in 2002 crab accounted for CAD 229 million, shrimp CAD 172 million and groundfish CAD 62 million.
Who gained
Reached nature or the ground
Gained elsewhere
Responses on record
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (2025-06-18): Announced a rise in the total allowable catch from 18,000 to 38,000 tonnes (release headline: sustainable increase). · Fisheries and Oceans Canada
- Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (2017): Published the resettlement payments and thresholds; calculated about CAD 3.8 million in savings over 20 years for Little Bay Islands. · The Globe and Mail (L. Jones)
In court and with insurers
Lawsuits and rulings
Insurers
What nature saw
Nature's report opens this page. Below: further outcomes measured on the ground.
What we don't know
Nature
Figures
- Insufficient Jobs lost: Reported; not independently verified.
Record
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: about 30,000 jobs were lost in Newfoundland and Labrador after the 1992 ban, and the provincial population fell by about 10% in the first decade.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: Fisheries and Oceans Canada had sought 13,000 tonnes for 2024; political advisers described the higher quota as a political win for Newfoundland.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: a former Fisheries and Oceans Canada modeller said he saw no evidence that the 38,000-tonne quota was sustainable.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: capelin, the cod's main prey, remained at about 9% of its pre-collapse level.
- None on record The Global Seafood Alliance report cited a 62-76% risk of the stock declining over 2024-2027; the sources reviewed do not say who made the calculation.
- None on record The sources reviewed do not say whether the province's 20-year saving calculation discounts future costs to present value.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified: that the commercial fishery opened on 26 June 2024, and that 55 residents remained in Little Bay Islands before the closure.
- Insufficient Reported but not independently verified (attributed to The Canadian Encyclopedia): warnings on northern cod in 1985–86, a scientists' recommendation of a 50% quota cut in 1989 that was not applied, and a stock at about 1% of its peak by 1992. The article text was not available for checking.
- None on record The sources reviewed do not say who bore the total cost of the 1992 closure.
Did the harm stop?
The fishery was stopped in 1992 and reopened in 2024; the sources reviewed record the stock at about 12% of the 1960s biomass in 2023.
Who paid?
Residents of Little Bay Islands, who left under the resettlement programme; the province paid CAD 250,000 to 270,000 per household under its policy.
Sources
Government and regulators
- Canada announces a sustainable increase in northern cod TACFisheries and Oceans Canada · 2025-06-18
- Community relocation policy news releaseGovernment of Newfoundland and Labrador · 2016-11-29
- Community relocation policy news releaseGovernment of Newfoundland and Labrador · 2021-10-27
- Community relocation: frequently asked questionsGovernment of Newfoundland and Labrador ·
Press and investigations
- Canada lifts 30-year cod fishing ban off Newfoundland and Labrador to mixed reactionsGlobal Seafood Alliance · 2024-07-08
- Newfoundland northern cod moratorium ended (The Narwhal / The Conversation)The Narwhal · 2024-07-23
- Scientists question Ottawa more than doubling cod catch in Newfoundland and Labrador (Canadian Press, via Barchart)Barchart (Canadian Press) · 2025
- Newfoundland outports relocationThe Globe and Mail (L. Jones) · 2017-09-15
- Town closure: turn out the lights, lock the doorsRadio Canada International · 2019-12-16
- Post-moratorium fisheriesHeritage NL ·
Communities and civil society
- New science for depleted northern cod stock highlights importance of evidence-based managementOceans North · 2023-10-25
Researchers
- Cod Moratorium of 1992The Canadian Encyclopedia ·
- The federal government has lifted the moratorium on northern cod fishing after 32 yearsThe Conversation · 2024
Connected cases
- Newfoundland and Labrador community resettlement programmes Canada · 1954–2025 Related matter
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Public authority) — here: Sets the northern cod total allowable catch; there: Federal fisheries department; sets the northern cod quota
- Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (Government) — here: Runs the community resettlement programme; there: Runs the resettlement programme and sets payments and thresholds
- Newfoundland pays residents to leave Little Bay Islands, a dwindling fishing village Canada · 1992–2019 Related matter
- Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (Government) — here: Runs the community resettlement programme; there: Ran and paid for the relocation programme
- IMF whale-value paper and Baffinland narwhal pilot Canada · 2019–2026
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Public authority) — here: Sets the northern cod total allowable catch; there: Pilot partner supplying data